Simulation and Correction Study of Solar Irradiance in Guangdong Based on WRF-Solar and Random Forest.
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| Title: | Simulation and Correction Study of Solar Irradiance in Guangdong Based on WRF-Solar and Random Forest. |
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| Authors: | He, Yuanhong1 (AUTHOR), Li, Zheng1 (AUTHOR), Zhou, Fang1 (AUTHOR), Gao, Zhiqiu1 (AUTHOR) zgao@nuist.edu.cn |
| Source: | Energies (19961073). May2026, Vol. 19 Issue 9, p2077. 18p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Random forest algorithms, *Calibration, *Energy industry forecasting, *Numerical weather forecasting, *Solar radiation |
| Geographic Terms: | China, Guangdong Sheng (China) |
| Abstract: | To improve solar irradiance simulation accuracy for precise photovoltaic power forecasting, we developed a hybrid framework combining WRF-Solar numerical simulation and random forest (RF) machine learning for a PV plant in Guangdong, China. Weather conditions were objectively classified into clear, intermittent cloudy, and overcast using the Daily Variability Index (DVI) and Daily Clear-sky Index (DCI). We calibrated the WRF-Solar model's microphysics and radiative transfer schemes via sensitivity tests to optimize overcast-sky performance, then applied RF correction to the simulated irradiance. Results show that RF correction significantly reduces simulation errors for intermittent and overcast conditions, while the original WRF-Solar outperforms the corrected results under clear skies due to RF overfitting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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| Abstract: | To improve solar irradiance simulation accuracy for precise photovoltaic power forecasting, we developed a hybrid framework combining WRF-Solar numerical simulation and random forest (RF) machine learning for a PV plant in Guangdong, China. Weather conditions were objectively classified into clear, intermittent cloudy, and overcast using the Daily Variability Index (DVI) and Daily Clear-sky Index (DCI). We calibrated the WRF-Solar model's microphysics and radiative transfer schemes via sensitivity tests to optimize overcast-sky performance, then applied RF correction to the simulated irradiance. Results show that RF correction significantly reduces simulation errors for intermittent and overcast conditions, while the original WRF-Solar outperforms the corrected results under clear skies due to RF overfitting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 19961073 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/en19092077 |
