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Sensitivities of mean and extreme streamflow to climate variability across Europe.

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Title: Sensitivities of mean and extreme streamflow to climate variability across Europe.
Authors: Hemshorn de Sánchez, Anna Luisa1,2,3 (AUTHOR) a.l.hemshorndesanchez@vu.nl, Berghuijs, Wouter R.3 (AUTHOR), Van Loon, Anne F.1 (AUTHOR), Hendriks, Dimmie2 (AUTHOR), van der Velde, Ype3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Hydrology & Earth System Sciences. 2026, Vol. 30 Issue 9, p2667-2683. 17p.
Subject Terms: *Streamflow, *Precipitation variability, *Watersheds, *Temperature effect, *Climate change, *Stream measurements, *Water management
Geographic Terms: Europe
Abstract: Understanding how streamflow responds to variability in climate is an important aspect of regions' hydrological resilience, particularly under climate change. Streamflow elasticities (ε) (or sensitivities) to climate describe observed percentage changes in river flow conditions per percentage change (or unit change) of a climate driver. Drawing on data from over 7000 catchments, this study provides the first pan-European quantification of elasticities of annual mean and extreme streamflow to annual and seasonal precipitation, and streamflow sensitivities to temperature. Results indicate that elasticities exhibit distinct regional patterns across Europe. Annual mean, maximum, and minimum flows generally increase with higher annual mean precipitation. A 1 % change in precipitation typically leads to an amplified flow response of > 1 % in mean flows (median elasticity: ε̃=1.2), an even stronger amplification in maximum flows (ε̃=1.3), and a dampened response of < 1 % in minimum flows (ε̃=0.9). Temperature has a limited influence on annual streamflow, and its effects vary in sign (illustrated by both positive and negative sensitivities), but are relatively similar for mean, maximum, and minimum flows. To assess regional differences in elasticities to precipitation, we use a random forest model that considers catchment characteristics beyond commonly studied climate factors. Results indicate that elasticities are not modulated by a single dominant characteristic but emerge with complex combinations of catchment characteristics, likely including influences not well captured by typically available characteristics (e.g., anthropogenic influences). By revealing regional and continental patterns of amplified and dampened streamflow response across Europe, this research provides valuable insights into the hydrological resilience of mean and extreme flows to climate variability and climate change, and offers support for targeted water management and disaster risk mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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  Data: Sensitivities of mean and extreme streamflow to climate variability across Europe.
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  Data: *&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Streamflow%22&quot;&gt;Streamflow&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;*&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Precipitation+variability%22&quot;&gt;Precipitation variability&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;*&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Watersheds%22&quot;&gt;Watersheds&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;*&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Temperature+effect%22&quot;&gt;Temperature effect&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;*&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Climate+change%22&quot;&gt;Climate change&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;*&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Stream+measurements%22&quot;&gt;Stream measurements&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;*&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Water+management%22&quot;&gt;Water management&lt;/searchLink&gt;
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  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Europe%22&quot;&gt;Europe&lt;/searchLink&gt;
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Understanding how streamflow responds to variability in climate is an important aspect of regions&#39; hydrological resilience, particularly under climate change. Streamflow elasticities (ε) (or sensitivities) to climate describe observed percentage changes in river flow conditions per percentage change (or unit change) of a climate driver. Drawing on data from over 7000 catchments, this study provides the first pan-European quantification of elasticities of annual mean and extreme streamflow to annual and seasonal precipitation, and streamflow sensitivities to temperature. Results indicate that elasticities exhibit distinct regional patterns across Europe. Annual mean, maximum, and minimum flows generally increase with higher annual mean precipitation. A 1 % change in precipitation typically leads to an amplified flow response of &gt; 1 % in mean flows (median elasticity: ε̃=1.2), an even stronger amplification in maximum flows (ε̃=1.3), and a dampened response of &lt; 1 % in minimum flows (ε̃=0.9). Temperature has a limited influence on annual streamflow, and its effects vary in sign (illustrated by both positive and negative sensitivities), but are relatively similar for mean, maximum, and minimum flows. To assess regional differences in elasticities to precipitation, we use a random forest model that considers catchment characteristics beyond commonly studied climate factors. Results indicate that elasticities are not modulated by a single dominant characteristic but emerge with complex combinations of catchment characteristics, likely including influences not well captured by typically available characteristics (e.g., anthropogenic influences). By revealing regional and continental patterns of amplified and dampened streamflow response across Europe, this research provides valuable insights into the hydrological resilience of mean and extreme flows to climate variability and climate change, and offers support for targeted water management and disaster risk mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.5194/hess-30-2667-2026
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 17
        StartPage: 2667
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Streamflow
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Precipitation variability
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Watersheds
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Temperature effect
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Stream measurements
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water management
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Europe
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Sensitivities of mean and extreme streamflow to climate variability across Europe.
        Type: main
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      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Hemshorn de Sánchez, Anna Luisa
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Berghuijs, Wouter R.
      – PersonEntity:
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            NameFull: Van Loon, Anne F.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Hendriks, Dimmie
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: van der Velde, Ype
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          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 05
              Text: 2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 30
            – Type: issue
              Value: 9
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Hydrology & Earth System Sciences
              Type: main
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