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Research on regional "dual carbon" targets and path planning based on mathematical modeling methods: a case study of southeast coastal China.

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Title: Research on regional "dual carbon" targets and path planning based on mathematical modeling methods: a case study of southeast coastal China.
Authors: Shen, Haiyang1 (AUTHOR), Guo, Kai1 (AUTHOR), Liao, Xuan1 (AUTHOR), Gao, Qimin1 (AUTHOR), Wu, Feng1 (AUTHOR), Gu, Fengwei1 (AUTHOR), Hu, Zhichao1 (AUTHOR) huzhichao@caas.cn
Source: Environment, Development & Sustainability. Jun2026, Vol. 28 Issue 6, p13641-13667. 27p.
Subject Terms: *Mathematical models, *Carbon emissions, *Fossil fuels, *Carbon offsetting, *Economic expansion, *Energy consumption
Geographic Terms: China
Abstract: The growth of GDP and the increase in energy consumption have posed a challenge to crack the contradiction between development and emission reduction, and it is necessary to improve the efficiency of energy utilization and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption. In this paper, to address the contradiction between development and emission reduction, based on the screening of regional population, GDP, energy consumption and carbon emission related indicators and indicator system, we have established Logistic Population Growth Model, Gray Prediction Model, Multiple Non-linear Regression Model and Extended STIRPAT Model, and realized the goal of "Dual Carbon" path planning. Mathematical models of energy efficiency and non-fossil energy share improvement under natural, baseline, and ambitious scenarios were constructed with the goal of realizing the "dual-carbon" path planning. The results show that under the dual-carbon target, the regional population is stagnant after 2025. In 2035, with the upgrading of the scenarios, the rate of carbon emissions gradually approaches 0, GDP doubles, and energy consumption decreases by 0.6%. In 2060, with the upgrading of the scenarios, the rate of carbon neutrality gradually rises, GDP is 12 times that of 2020, and energy consumption decreases by 4%, which is in line with the target vision. The study of regional dual-carbon targets and pathway planning based on mathematical modelling provides new ideas and methods for China and the world to crack the contradiction between development and emission reduction, which is of great significance for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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Header DbId: enr
DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 194093174
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Data: Research on regional "dual carbon" targets and path planning based on mathematical modeling methods: a case study of southeast coastal China.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Environment%2C+Development+%26+Sustainability%22">Environment, Development & Sustainability</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 28 Issue 6, p13641-13667. 27p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematical+models%22">Mathematical models</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+emissions%22">Carbon emissions</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Fossil+fuels%22">Fossil fuels</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+offsetting%22">Carbon offsetting</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+expansion%22">Economic expansion</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+consumption%22">Energy consumption</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22China%22">China</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The growth of GDP and the increase in energy consumption have posed a challenge to crack the contradiction between development and emission reduction, and it is necessary to improve the efficiency of energy utilization and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption. In this paper, to address the contradiction between development and emission reduction, based on the screening of regional population, GDP, energy consumption and carbon emission related indicators and indicator system, we have established Logistic Population Growth Model, Gray Prediction Model, Multiple Non-linear Regression Model and Extended STIRPAT Model, and realized the goal of "Dual Carbon" path planning. Mathematical models of energy efficiency and non-fossil energy share improvement under natural, baseline, and ambitious scenarios were constructed with the goal of realizing the "dual-carbon" path planning. The results show that under the dual-carbon target, the regional population is stagnant after 2025. In 2035, with the upgrading of the scenarios, the rate of carbon emissions gradually approaches 0, GDP doubles, and energy consumption decreases by 0.6%. In 2060, with the upgrading of the scenarios, the rate of carbon neutrality gradually rises, GDP is 12 times that of 2020, and energy consumption decreases by 4%, which is in line with the target vision. The study of regional dual-carbon targets and pathway planning based on mathematical modelling provides new ideas and methods for China and the world to crack the contradiction between development and emission reduction, which is of great significance for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s10668-024-05513-5
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 27
        StartPage: 13641
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Mathematical models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Carbon emissions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fossil fuels
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Carbon offsetting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Economic expansion
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy consumption
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: China
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Research on regional "dual carbon" targets and path planning based on mathematical modeling methods: a case study of southeast coastal China.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
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      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Shen, Haiyang
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Guo, Kai
      – PersonEntity:
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            NameFull: Liao, Xuan
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            NameFull: Gao, Qimin
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Wu, Feng
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            NameFull: Gu, Fengwei
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            NameFull: Hu, Zhichao
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            – D: 01
              M: 06
              Text: Jun2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 1387585X
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            – Type: volume
              Value: 28
            – Type: issue
              Value: 6
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Environment, Development & Sustainability
              Type: main
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