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Constructing tourism market vulnerability indicator in Thailand.

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Title: Constructing tourism market vulnerability indicator in Thailand.
Authors: Soh, Ann-Ni1 (AUTHOR), Kuek, Tai-Hock2 (AUTHOR), Puah, Chin-Hong2 (AUTHOR) chpuah@unimas.my
Source: Environment, Development & Sustainability. Jun2026, Vol. 28 Issue 6, p14783-14805. 23p.
Subject Terms: *Tourism, *Wavelets (Mathematics), *Tourists, *Economic impact, *Policy sciences, *Petroleum sales & prices, *Macroeconomics
Geographic Terms: Thailand
Abstract: This paper attempts to develop a tourism market vulnerability indicator for Thailand as a real-time monitoring instrument in mitigating vulnerability in Thailand's tourism. The indicator is constructed by extracting a common vulnerability component using a dynamic approximate factor model with a blend of six variables of macroeconomics and tourism. This paper focused on the four dimensions of tourism market vulnerability that include physical, socio-cultural, economic, and institutional factors. Through the wavelet analysis, the empirical results shown in the wavelet coherence maps suggested that the constructed indicator leads tourist arrivals in Thailand and thus, can serve as an early signal monitoring instrument. Oil price shocks have also been studied since tourism is an energy-intensive sector. Analysis results from the wavelet coherence revealed a significant leading role of crude oil price in the Thailand tourism market. The results further validated the tourism-led growth hypothesis and the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis in Thailand. The empirical evidence shows that while higher visitor exports (LVE) positively correlate with international tourist arrivals (LTA), indicating a flourishing tourism sector, currency appreciation (LREER) negatively impacts arrivals due to increased travel costs. Additionally, inflation (LCPI) also exhibits a negative relationship with LTA, suggesting that rising prices deter tourists. The sufficient evidence on the causal relationship between the examined series provide tourism practitioners and policymakers more information to formulate hedging strategies against tourism market vulnerabilities and future oil price movements for the policy planning of economic development in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Header DbId: enr
DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 194093197
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Constructing tourism market vulnerability indicator in Thailand.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Soh%2C+Ann-Ni%22">Soh, Ann-Ni</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kuek%2C+Tai-Hock%22">Kuek, Tai-Hock</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Puah%2C+Chin-Hong%22">Puah, Chin-Hong</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> chpuah@unimas.my</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Environment%2C+Development+%26+Sustainability%22">Environment, Development & Sustainability</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 28 Issue 6, p14783-14805. 23p.
– Name: Subject
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tourism%22">Tourism</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wavelets+%28Mathematics%29%22">Wavelets (Mathematics)</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tourists%22">Tourists</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+impact%22">Economic impact</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Policy+sciences%22">Policy sciences</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Petroleum+sales+%26+prices%22">Petroleum sales & prices</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Macroeconomics%22">Macroeconomics</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thailand%22">Thailand</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This paper attempts to develop a tourism market vulnerability indicator for Thailand as a real-time monitoring instrument in mitigating vulnerability in Thailand's tourism. The indicator is constructed by extracting a common vulnerability component using a dynamic approximate factor model with a blend of six variables of macroeconomics and tourism. This paper focused on the four dimensions of tourism market vulnerability that include physical, socio-cultural, economic, and institutional factors. Through the wavelet analysis, the empirical results shown in the wavelet coherence maps suggested that the constructed indicator leads tourist arrivals in Thailand and thus, can serve as an early signal monitoring instrument. Oil price shocks have also been studied since tourism is an energy-intensive sector. Analysis results from the wavelet coherence revealed a significant leading role of crude oil price in the Thailand tourism market. The results further validated the tourism-led growth hypothesis and the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis in Thailand. The empirical evidence shows that while higher visitor exports (LVE) positively correlate with international tourist arrivals (LTA), indicating a flourishing tourism sector, currency appreciation (LREER) negatively impacts arrivals due to increased travel costs. Additionally, inflation (LCPI) also exhibits a negative relationship with LTA, suggesting that rising prices deter tourists. The sufficient evidence on the causal relationship between the examined series provide tourism practitioners and policymakers more information to formulate hedging strategies against tourism market vulnerabilities and future oil price movements for the policy planning of economic development in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=194093197
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s10668-024-05552-y
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 23
        StartPage: 14783
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Tourism
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wavelets (Mathematics)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tourists
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Economic impact
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Policy sciences
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Petroleum sales & prices
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Macroeconomics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Thailand
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Constructing tourism market vulnerability indicator in Thailand.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
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      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Soh, Ann-Ni
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Kuek, Tai-Hock
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Puah, Chin-Hong
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 06
              Text: Jun2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 1387585X
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            – Type: volume
              Value: 28
            – Type: issue
              Value: 6
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Environment, Development & Sustainability
              Type: main
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