Cost-Optimal Decarbonization Pathways for Data Centers in Japan: A Bottom-Up Model Integrating Location, Energy Systems, and Carbon Pricing.

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Title: Cost-Optimal Decarbonization Pathways for Data Centers in Japan: A Bottom-Up Model Integrating Location, Energy Systems, and Carbon Pricing.
Authors: Toyohara, Jin1 (AUTHOR), Zhou, Weisheng2 (AUTHOR) zhou@sps.ritsumei.ac.jp
Source: Energies (19961073). May2026, Vol. 19 Issue 10, p2485. 32p.
Subject Terms: *Data centers, *Carbon pricing, *Carbon offsetting, *Energy infrastructure, *Information & communication technologies, *Carbon dioxide mitigation, *Cost functions
Geographic Terms: Japan
Abstract: This study develops a bottom-up cost optimization model (DC-DECOM) to evaluate decarbonization pathways for Japan's data center industry, targeting carbon neutrality of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector by 2040. The model represents Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) as a dynamic function of ambient temperature and cooling technology, and integrates technology selection, regional energy supply, and carbon pricing within a single cost-minimization framework. Three scenarios are compared: a reference case (REF), a centralized carbon-neutral scenario (C-CN) that restricts new capacity to metropolitan areas, and a regional decentralization scenario (R-CN) that allows for nationwide siting. Input parameters are calibrated against data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Uptime Institute, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) White Papers, and the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST). The R-CN scenario achieves the 2040 net-zero target at 18–23% lower total system cost than C-CN. The cost gap decomposes into four channels (cooling-energy reduction ∼35%, lower regional renewable procurement cost ∼30%, lower carbon cost ∼25%, and lower siting-related cost ∼10%). Sensitivity analysis identifies the carbon-price trajectory and the hardware-efficiency improvement rate as the most influential parameters; the R-CN advantage remains positive across all ± 1 σ parameter variations and across two combined-scenario stress tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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An: 194141599
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  Data: Cost-Optimal Decarbonization Pathways for Data Centers in Japan: A Bottom-Up Model Integrating Location, Energy Systems, and Carbon Pricing.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Energies+%2819961073%29%22">Energies (19961073)</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 19 Issue 10, p2485. 32p.
– Name: Subject
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Data+centers%22">Data centers</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+pricing%22">Carbon pricing</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+offsetting%22">Carbon offsetting</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+infrastructure%22">Energy infrastructure</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Information+%26+communication+technologies%22">Information & communication technologies</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+dioxide+mitigation%22">Carbon dioxide mitigation</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cost+functions%22">Cost functions</searchLink>
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  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Japan%22">Japan</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This study develops a bottom-up cost optimization model (DC-DECOM) to evaluate decarbonization pathways for Japan's data center industry, targeting carbon neutrality of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector by 2040. The model represents Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) as a dynamic function of ambient temperature and cooling technology, and integrates technology selection, regional energy supply, and carbon pricing within a single cost-minimization framework. Three scenarios are compared: a reference case (REF), a centralized carbon-neutral scenario (C-CN) that restricts new capacity to metropolitan areas, and a regional decentralization scenario (R-CN) that allows for nationwide siting. Input parameters are calibrated against data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Uptime Institute, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) White Papers, and the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST). The R-CN scenario achieves the 2040 net-zero target at 18–23% lower total system cost than C-CN. The cost gap decomposes into four channels (cooling-energy reduction ∼35%, lower regional renewable procurement cost ∼30%, lower carbon cost ∼25%, and lower siting-related cost ∼10%). Sensitivity analysis identifies the carbon-price trajectory and the hardware-efficiency improvement rate as the most influential parameters; the R-CN advantage remains positive across all ± 1 σ parameter variations and across two combined-scenario stress tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.3390/en19102485
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 32
        StartPage: 2485
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Data centers
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Carbon pricing
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Carbon offsetting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy infrastructure
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Information & communication technologies
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Carbon dioxide mitigation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cost functions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Japan
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Cost-Optimal Decarbonization Pathways for Data Centers in Japan: A Bottom-Up Model Integrating Location, Energy Systems, and Carbon Pricing.
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            NameFull: Toyohara, Jin
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          Name:
            NameFull: Zhou, Weisheng
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            – D: 15
              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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            – Type: issn-print
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              Value: 19
            – Type: issue
              Value: 10
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Energies (19961073)
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