XGBoost-Based 52-Week Peak-Load Forecasting Model with Monthly Adaptive Training and Sequential Prediction.
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| Title: | XGBoost-Based 52-Week Peak-Load Forecasting Model with Monthly Adaptive Training and Sequential Prediction. |
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| Authors: | Kim, Kyeong-Hwan1 (AUTHOR), Kim, Tae-Geun2 (AUTHOR), Kwon, Bo-Sung3 (AUTHOR), Song, Kyung-Bin4 (AUTHOR) kbsong@ssu.ac.kr |
| Source: | Energies (19961073). Jun2026, Vol. 19 Issue 11, p2683. 27p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Load forecasting (Electric power systems), *Boosting algorithms, *Time, *Demand forecasting, *Photovoltaic power generation, *Feature selection, *Electric power production forecasting |
| Abstract: | The operational resilience and strategic infrastructure planning of modern power grids are fundamentally anchored in the precision of mid-term load forecasting (MTLF). However, accurate forecasting over a 52-week horizon is increasingly challenging due to the growing variability in electricity demand driven by extreme weather events and the expansion of behind-the-meter (BTM) photovoltaic generation. In response to these difficulties, a 52-week forecasting framework for weekly peak load is established in this study, leveraging the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. The primary contribution of this study lies not in the architectural modification of the XGBoost algorithm itself, but in the systematic integration of (i) a reproducible feature-screening protocol, (ii) month-specific training-set construction, and (iii) a sequential rolling prediction architecture validated under both actual- and forecast-input conditions. The proposed framework was validated using data from the Korean power system (2020–2024) and compared with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) benchmark. In the Actual-Input scenario, the average Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the proposed framework was 2.90%, demonstrating superior precision over the LSTM model, which exhibited a 3.73%. Under the Forecast-Input scenario, the framework maintained high robustness with an average MAPE of 3.86%. These results demonstrate that the integrated framework-level approach provides a more practical and stable solution for mid-term power system operations than individual baseline models within the studied context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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