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Project Risk Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects in Electricity Market Structures: A Systematic Literature Review.

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Title: Project Risk Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects in Electricity Market Structures: A Systematic Literature Review.
Authors: Tampubolon, Daniel Karmel Fernando1,2 (AUTHOR), Khayam, Umar1,2 (AUTHOR), Isnandar, Suroso1,3 (AUTHOR), Banjar-Nahor, Kevin Marojahan1 (AUTHOR), Inkaresa, Ardian2 (AUTHOR), Laksono, Ferdi Adi2,3 (AUTHOR), Sinurat, Rechman2 (AUTHOR) rechman.sinurat@pln.co.id, Pamungkas, Aditya Sage2 (AUTHOR), Sipahutar, Jhon Andreas2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Energies (19961073). Jul2026, Vol. 19 Issue 13, p3179. 42p.
Subject Terms: *Risk assessment, *Electricity markets, *Project management, *Renewable energy sources, *Monte Carlo method, *Economic liberalization
Abstract: Risk assessment frameworks for renewable energy projects are predominantly designed for liberalised electricity markets, leaving state-dominated and single-buyer systems analytically underserved. This systematic literature review (SLR) synthesises 116 peer-reviewed studies (2015–2026) following a PRISMA-compliant, Kitchenham-guided protocol to identify and critically evaluate project-level risks and assessment methodologies across diverse electricity market structures. Three contributions are made: (i) a market-structure-differentiated risk taxonomy showing how risk profiles differ structurally across liberalised, hybrid, and single-buyer markets; (ii) the Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Renewable Energy Projects (IRAF-REPs), a five-layer architecture connecting market structure context, risk category taxonomy, assessment methods, project lifecycle phases, and risk-register standards (ISO 31000/COSO); and (iii) a structured three-horizon future research agenda. Market/price risk (~68%) and policy/regulatory risk (~58%) dominate the reviewed literature, while counterparty/PPA risk—dominant in single-buyer contexts—is largely absent from quantitative frameworks. Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis lead quantitative practice in liberalised-market studies; the hybrid Monte Carlo-System Dynamics (MC-SD) combination appears in fewer than 4% of studies despite its conceptual suitability for single-buyer contexts. Five research gaps are identified. Findings advance SDG 7, SDG 13, and SDG 9, with direct governance relevance for Indonesia/PLN and comparable Global South economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 195441402
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PubType: Academic Journal
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  Data: Project Risk Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects in Electricity Market Structures: A Systematic Literature Review.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Energies+%2819961073%29%22">Energies (19961073)</searchLink>. Jul2026, Vol. 19 Issue 13, p3179. 42p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Risk+assessment%22">Risk assessment</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electricity+markets%22">Electricity markets</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Project+management%22">Project management</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Renewable+energy+sources%22">Renewable energy sources</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Monte+Carlo+method%22">Monte Carlo method</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+liberalization%22">Economic liberalization</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Risk assessment frameworks for renewable energy projects are predominantly designed for liberalised electricity markets, leaving state-dominated and single-buyer systems analytically underserved. This systematic literature review (SLR) synthesises 116 peer-reviewed studies (2015–2026) following a PRISMA-compliant, Kitchenham-guided protocol to identify and critically evaluate project-level risks and assessment methodologies across diverse electricity market structures. Three contributions are made: (i) a market-structure-differentiated risk taxonomy showing how risk profiles differ structurally across liberalised, hybrid, and single-buyer markets; (ii) the Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Renewable Energy Projects (IRAF-REPs), a five-layer architecture connecting market structure context, risk category taxonomy, assessment methods, project lifecycle phases, and risk-register standards (ISO 31000/COSO); and (iii) a structured three-horizon future research agenda. Market/price risk (~68%) and policy/regulatory risk (~58%) dominate the reviewed literature, while counterparty/PPA risk—dominant in single-buyer contexts—is largely absent from quantitative frameworks. Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis lead quantitative practice in liberalised-market studies; the hybrid Monte Carlo-System Dynamics (MC-SD) combination appears in fewer than 4% of studies despite its conceptual suitability for single-buyer contexts. Five research gaps are identified. Findings advance SDG 7, SDG 13, and SDG 9, with direct governance relevance for Indonesia/PLN and comparable Global South economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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        Value: 10.3390/en19133179
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        Text: English
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        PageCount: 42
        StartPage: 3179
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      – SubjectFull: Risk assessment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Electricity markets
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Project management
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Renewable energy sources
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Monte Carlo method
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      – SubjectFull: Economic liberalization
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Project Risk Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects in Electricity Market Structures: A Systematic Literature Review.
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            – D: 01
              M: 07
              Text: Jul2026
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              Y: 2026
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