The "Confidence" Trap: When the Likelihood Is Low, Forecasters Look Less Competent When They Refer to Their Confidence in an Outcome Rather Than Its Probability.
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| Title: | The "Confidence" Trap: When the Likelihood Is Low, Forecasters Look Less Competent When They Refer to Their Confidence in an Outcome Rather Than Its Probability. |
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| Authors: | Palmeira, Mauricio (AUTHOR), Chen, Haipeng (Allan) (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Consumer Research. Aug2026, Vol. 53 Issue 2, p390-408. 19p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Marketing forecasting, *Consumer behavior, *Decision making, *Shopping, *Probability theory, *Confidence |
| Abstract: | Marketers make various forecasts, including those about new products, financial instruments, sporting events, and medical procedures, to influence consumer decisions. In communicating the likelihood that a forecaster assigns to an outcome, the forecaster can refer to their confidence in the outcome (e.g. "I'm 30% confident") or the probability of the outcome (e.g. "There is a 30% probability"). The authors propose that the choice of language (e.g. probability vs. confidence) affects the perceptions of forecasters, yielding predictable consequences on consumer decisions. Specifically, some languages (e.g. confident/sure/certain) encourage internal attributions (e.g. to a forecaster), whereas other languages (e.g. probability/likelihood/chance) encourage external attributions (e.g. to an outcome). As a result, expressions of a forecaster's confidence (vs. outcome probability) make the forecaster look less competent, especially when the likelihood of the outcome is low. A series of studies shows the effect in various consumption scenarios. The effect is mediated by internal (vs. external) attributions, influences real betting decisions, and is mitigated when the likelihood is high and among consumers with a weaker tendency to make internal attributions (i.e. a weaker correspondence bias). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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| Header | DbId: enr DbLabel: Energy & Power Source An: 195476960 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: The "Confidence" Trap: When the Likelihood Is Low, Forecasters Look Less Competent When They Refer to Their Confidence in an Outcome Rather Than Its Probability. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Palmeira%2C+Mauricio%22">Palmeira, Mauricio</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chen%2C+Haipeng+%28Allan%29%22">Chen, Haipeng (Allan)</searchLink> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Consumer+Research%22">Journal of Consumer Research</searchLink>. Aug2026, Vol. 53 Issue 2, p390-408. 19p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Marketing+forecasting%22">Marketing forecasting</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Consumer+behavior%22">Consumer behavior</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Decision+making%22">Decision making</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Shopping%22">Shopping</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Probability+theory%22">Probability theory</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Confidence%22">Confidence</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Marketers make various forecasts, including those about new products, financial instruments, sporting events, and medical procedures, to influence consumer decisions. In communicating the likelihood that a forecaster assigns to an outcome, the forecaster can refer to their confidence in the outcome (e.g. "I'm 30% confident") or the probability of the outcome (e.g. "There is a 30% probability"). The authors propose that the choice of language (e.g. probability vs. confidence) affects the perceptions of forecasters, yielding predictable consequences on consumer decisions. Specifically, some languages (e.g. confident/sure/certain) encourage internal attributions (e.g. to a forecaster), whereas other languages (e.g. probability/likelihood/chance) encourage external attributions (e.g. to an outcome). As a result, expressions of a forecaster's confidence (vs. outcome probability) make the forecaster look less competent, especially when the likelihood of the outcome is low. A series of studies shows the effect in various consumption scenarios. The effect is mediated by internal (vs. external) attributions, influences real betting decisions, and is mitigated when the likelihood is high and among consumers with a weaker tendency to make internal attributions (i.e. a weaker correspondence bias). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=195476960 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1093/jcr/ucaf043 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 19 StartPage: 390 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Marketing forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Consumer behavior Type: general – SubjectFull: Decision making Type: general – SubjectFull: Shopping Type: general – SubjectFull: Probability theory Type: general – SubjectFull: Confidence Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: The "Confidence" Trap: When the Likelihood Is Low, Forecasters Look Less Competent When They Refer to Their Confidence in an Outcome Rather Than Its Probability. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Palmeira, Mauricio – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Chen, Haipeng (Allan) IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 08 Text: Aug2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00935301 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 53 – Type: issue Value: 2 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Consumer Research Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
