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Seattle's Small-Area Approach to Forecasting Enrollments at the School Level.

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Title: Seattle's Small-Area Approach to Forecasting Enrollments at the School Level.
Language: English
Authors: Bernhardt, Victoria L.
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 29
Publication Date: 1983
Intended Audience: Researchers; Administrators; Practitioners
Document Type: Reports - Research
Speeches/Meeting Papers
Descriptors: Attendance, Computer Oriented Programs, Declining Enrollment, Educational Facilities Planning, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Linear Programing, Mathematical Models, Regression (Statistics), Research Methodology, Research Problems, Residential Patterns, School Closing, School Demography, School Desegregation, School Districts, School Holding Power
Abstract: The issues of achieving school desegregation and providing programs for students with special needs, while at the same time facing enrollment declines, have forced school administrators to improve techniques for projecting demand. This paper describes a new procedure that combines forecasting of enrollments and management of facilities and that has been successfully implemented for the Seattle, Washington, Public Schools. The Seattle system prepares its forecasts for a relatively small local unit called the "small planning unit" containing from 50-100 students each. Five-year projections are prepared for each small area, and are then aggregated to prepare forecasts for large geographical areas and for attending schools. Advantages to this approach claimed for planners are that (1) it allows for easier simulation of policy alternatives, (2) small units provide a welcome sensitivity to neighborhood activity, and (3) the use of small-area forecasts allows continuous refinement of the models in response to actual results. Some results are reported that support the planning technique. The mathematical procedures for the forecasting model used with small planning units are in the appendix. (MLF)
Entry Date: 1984
Accession Number: ED239378
Database: ERIC
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  Availability: 0
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  – Url: https://eric.ed.gov/contentdelivery/servlet/ERICServlet?accno=ED239378
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AccessLevel: 3
PubType: Report
PubTypeId: report
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IllustrationInfo
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  Data: Seattle's Small-Area Approach to Forecasting Enrollments at the School Level.
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– Name: Author
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bernhardt%2C+Victoria+L%2E%22">Bernhardt, Victoria L.</searchLink>
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  Data: N
– Name: Pages
  Label: Page Count
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  Data: 29
– Name: DatePubCY
  Label: Publication Date
  Group: Date
  Data: 1983
– Name: Audience
  Label: Intended Audience
  Group: Audnce
  Data: Researchers; Administrators; Practitioners
– Name: TypeDocument
  Label: Document Type
  Group: TypDoc
  Data: Reports - Research<br />Speeches/Meeting Papers
– Name: Subject
  Label: Descriptors
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Attendance%22">Attendance</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Computer+Oriented+Programs%22">Computer Oriented Programs</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Declining+Enrollment%22">Declining Enrollment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Facilities+Planning%22">Educational Facilities Planning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Elementary+Secondary+Education%22">Elementary Secondary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Enrollment+Projections%22">Enrollment Projections</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Linear+Programing%22">Linear Programing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematical+Models%22">Mathematical Models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Regression+%28Statistics%29%22">Regression (Statistics)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Research+Methodology%22">Research Methodology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Research+Problems%22">Research Problems</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Residential+Patterns%22">Residential Patterns</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22School+Closing%22">School Closing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22School+Demography%22">School Demography</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22School+Desegregation%22">School Desegregation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22School+Districts%22">School Districts</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22School+Holding+Power%22">School Holding Power</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The issues of achieving school desegregation and providing programs for students with special needs, while at the same time facing enrollment declines, have forced school administrators to improve techniques for projecting demand. This paper describes a new procedure that combines forecasting of enrollments and management of facilities and that has been successfully implemented for the Seattle, Washington, Public Schools. The Seattle system prepares its forecasts for a relatively small local unit called the "small planning unit" containing from 50-100 students each. Five-year projections are prepared for each small area, and are then aggregated to prepare forecasts for large geographical areas and for attending schools. Advantages to this approach claimed for planners are that (1) it allows for easier simulation of policy alternatives, (2) small units provide a welcome sensitivity to neighborhood activity, and (3) the use of small-area forecasts allows continuous refinement of the models in response to actual results. Some results are reported that support the planning technique. The mathematical procedures for the forecasting model used with small planning units are in the appendix. (MLF)
– Name: DateEntry
  Label: Entry Date
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  Data: 1984
– Name: AN
  Label: Accession Number
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  Data: ED239378
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=ED239378
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 29
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Attendance
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Computer Oriented Programs
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Declining Enrollment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational Facilities Planning
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Elementary Secondary Education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Enrollment Projections
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Linear Programing
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mathematical Models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Regression (Statistics)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Research Methodology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Research Problems
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Residential Patterns
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: School Closing
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: School Demography
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: School Desegregation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: School Districts
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: School Holding Power
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Seattle's Small-Area Approach to Forecasting Enrollments at the School Level.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Bernhardt, Victoria L.
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 04
              Type: published
              Y: 1983
ResultId 1