A Cognitive Model of the Effects of Linking Political Referenda to Salient Social Issues: A Lottery Will Fund Education, But Casinos Will Cause Crime?
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| Title: | A Cognitive Model of the Effects of Linking Political Referenda to Salient Social Issues: A Lottery Will Fund Education, But Casinos Will Cause Crime? |
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| Language: | English |
| Authors: | Ferguson, M. A. |
| Peer Reviewed: | N |
| Page Count: | 43 |
| Publication Date: | 1987 |
| Intended Audience: | Researchers |
| Document Type: | Reports - Research Speeches/Meeting Papers |
| Descriptors: | Crime, Educational Finance, Financial Support, Political Issues, School Funds, Social Problems, Social Science Research, State Aid, State Programs |
| Abstract: | Contrasting a party identification model with a rational decision making model, a cognitive model predicts voter intent on two referenda: (1) an amendment to permit a state lottery; and (2) an amendment to permit residents of each county to vote on whether to permit casino gambling. Supporters of the lottery amendment attempt to strongly link it to a highly salient social issue, such as the funding of education. Opponents of the casino amendment attempt to link it to the highly salient issue of crime. The party identification model predicts that voters will follow party cues in their support or opposition to each of the amendments. The cognitive linking model predicts that those voters who link the amendments to salient social issues will be more likely to support the lottery amendment and oppose the casino amendment than will those voters who do not make these links. An integrated processing model suggests, in the absence of these links, that the voter is likely to adopt the rational choice perspective and consistently support or oppose both amendments because they are a form of gambling based on the voter's previous rational choices. No support is found for party identification as predicting voter choice. Support is found for the cognitive linking model, and the rational choice model predicts the voting intent of about 79 percent of those who do not make the cognitive links between the referenda and the other salient social issues. (AEM) |
| Entry Date: | 1988 |
| Accession Number: | ED289780 |
| Database: | ERIC |
| Abstract: | Contrasting a party identification model with a rational decision making model, a cognitive model predicts voter intent on two referenda: (1) an amendment to permit a state lottery; and (2) an amendment to permit residents of each county to vote on whether to permit casino gambling. Supporters of the lottery amendment attempt to strongly link it to a highly salient social issue, such as the funding of education. Opponents of the casino amendment attempt to link it to the highly salient issue of crime. The party identification model predicts that voters will follow party cues in their support or opposition to each of the amendments. The cognitive linking model predicts that those voters who link the amendments to salient social issues will be more likely to support the lottery amendment and oppose the casino amendment than will those voters who do not make these links. An integrated processing model suggests, in the absence of these links, that the voter is likely to adopt the rational choice perspective and consistently support or oppose both amendments because they are a form of gambling based on the voter's previous rational choices. No support is found for party identification as predicting voter choice. Support is found for the cognitive linking model, and the rational choice model predicts the voting intent of about 79 percent of those who do not make the cognitive links between the referenda and the other salient social issues. (AEM) |
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