The Futures of Assessments: Navigating Uncertainties through the Lenses of Anticipatory Thinking

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Title: The Futures of Assessments: Navigating Uncertainties through the Lenses of Anticipatory Thinking
Language: English
Authors: Fawaz Abu Sitta, Bryan Maddox, Imogen Casebourne, Sarah Hughes, Martina Kuvalja, Judith Hannam, Tim Oates, Cambridge University Press & Assessment (United Kingdom)
Source: Cambridge University Press & Assessment. 2023.
Availability: Cambridge University Press & Assessment. Shaftesbury Road Cambridge CB2 8EA. Tel: 44-1223-553311; e-mail: directcs@cambridge.org; Web site: https://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 77
Publication Date: 2023
Document Type: Reports - Research
Descriptors: Educational Assessment, Educational Trends, Prediction, Futures (of Society), Educational Change
ISBN: 978-1-73843-360-5
Abstract: The multifaceted disruption of social and political processes during the most intense phases of the COVID crisis encouraged many groups and individuals to propose change and reform to education. This current report is a distinctive voice in the debate about 'assessment futures'. Not least, it outlines the nature of human construction of the future. It acknowledges that while the future might be constrained by current arrangements and the impact of past policy and practice, the future is not 'inevitable' or fixed, but is the product of human agency: a combination of thought, decisions, actions and reactions. The aim of this research, looking forward to 2050, was not to predict the future of assessment but to use Futures Thinking as an approach to anticipate plausible future directions. The research was carried out in collaboration with individuals and groups from various departments across the University of Cambridge and two external groups. The participants took part in three 3-hour long workshops, with many completing significant work in-between the first and the second workshop. This study highlighted fundamental distinctions between linear and nonlinear approaches to future forecasting. It emphasises the necessity for unconventional methodologies to anticipate discontinuities and surprises resulting from radical shifts and disruptive innovation.
Abstractor: ERIC
Entry Date: 2024
Accession Number: ED639593
Database: ERIC
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  Availability: 0
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  Data: The Futures of Assessments: Navigating Uncertainties through the Lenses of Anticipatory Thinking
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  Data: The multifaceted disruption of social and political processes during the most intense phases of the COVID crisis encouraged many groups and individuals to propose change and reform to education. This current report is a distinctive voice in the debate about 'assessment futures'. Not least, it outlines the nature of human construction of the future. It acknowledges that while the future might be constrained by current arrangements and the impact of past policy and practice, the future is not 'inevitable' or fixed, but is the product of human agency: a combination of thought, decisions, actions and reactions. The aim of this research, looking forward to 2050, was not to predict the future of assessment but to use Futures Thinking as an approach to anticipate plausible future directions. The research was carried out in collaboration with individuals and groups from various departments across the University of Cambridge and two external groups. The participants took part in three 3-hour long workshops, with many completing significant work in-between the first and the second workshop. This study highlighted fundamental distinctions between linear and nonlinear approaches to future forecasting. It emphasises the necessity for unconventional methodologies to anticipate discontinuities and surprises resulting from radical shifts and disruptive innovation.
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