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Are High School Students Accurate in Predicting Their AP Exam Scores?: Examining Inaccuracy and Overconfidence of Students' Predictions

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Title: Are High School Students Accurate in Predicting Their AP Exam Scores?: Examining Inaccuracy and Overconfidence of Students' Predictions
Language: English
Authors: Teresa M. Ober (ORCID 0000-0001-9698-9543), Maxwell R. Hong, Matthew F. Carter, Alex S. Brodersen, Daniella Rebouças-Ju, Cheng Liu, Ying Cheng
Source: Grantee Submission. 2021.
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 26
Publication Date: 2021
Sponsoring Agency: National Science Foundation (NSF), Division of Research on Learning in Formal and Informal Settings (DRL)
Contract Number: 1350787
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: High Schools
Secondary Education
Descriptors: High School Students, Self Evaluation (Individuals), Student Attitudes, High Stakes Tests, Advanced Placement Programs, Tests, Student Evaluation, Accuracy, Scores, Age Differences, Gender Differences, Parent Background, Educational Attainment, Mathematics Instruction, Correlation, Classroom Environment, Learner Engagement, Context Effect, Statistics, Institutional Characteristics, Prior Learning
DOI: 10.1080/0969594X.2022.2037508
Abstract: We examined whether students were accurate in predicting their test performance two testing contexts (low-stakes and high-stakes). The sample comprised U.S. high school students enrolled in an advanced placement (AP) statistics course during the 2017-2018 academic year (N=209; M[subscript age]=16.6 years). We found that even two months before taking the AP exam, a high stakes summative assessment, students were moderately accurate in predicting their actual scores ([kappa][subscript weighted]=0.62). When the same variables were entered into models predicting inaccuracy and overconfidence bias, results did not provide evidence that age, gender, parental education, number of math classes previously taken, or course engagement accounted for variation in accuracy. Overconfidence bias differed between students enrolled at different schools. Results indicated that students' predictions of performance were positively associated with performance in both low- and high-stakes testing contexts. The findings shed light on ways to leverage students' self-assessment for learning.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2024
Accession Number: ED642087
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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  Data: Are High School Students Accurate in Predicting Their AP Exam Scores?: Examining Inaccuracy and Overconfidence of Students' Predictions
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Teresa+M%2E+Ober%22">Teresa M. Ober</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9698-9543">0000-0001-9698-9543</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Maxwell+R%2E+Hong%22">Maxwell R. Hong</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Matthew+F%2E+Carter%22">Matthew F. Carter</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Alex+S%2E+Brodersen%22">Alex S. Brodersen</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Daniella+Rebouças-Ju%22">Daniella Rebouças-Ju</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cheng+Liu%22">Cheng Liu</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ying+Cheng%22">Ying Cheng</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Grantee+Submission%22"><i>Grantee Submission</i></searchLink>. 2021.
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  Label: Peer Reviewed
  Group: SrcInfo
  Data: Y
– Name: Pages
  Label: Page Count
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  Data: 26
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  Label: Publication Date
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  Data: 2021
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  Data: National Science Foundation (NSF), Division of Research on Learning in Formal and Informal Settings (DRL)
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  Data: 1350787
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22High+Schools%22">High Schools</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Secondary+Education%22">Secondary Education</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22High+School+Students%22">High School Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Self+Evaluation+%28Individuals%29%22">Self Evaluation (Individuals)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Student+Attitudes%22">Student Attitudes</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22High+Stakes+Tests%22">High Stakes Tests</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Advanced+Placement+Programs%22">Advanced Placement Programs</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tests%22">Tests</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Student+Evaluation%22">Student Evaluation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Accuracy%22">Accuracy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Scores%22">Scores</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Age+Differences%22">Age Differences</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gender+Differences%22">Gender Differences</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Parent+Background%22">Parent Background</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Attainment%22">Educational Attainment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematics+Instruction%22">Mathematics Instruction</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Correlation%22">Correlation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Classroom+Environment%22">Classroom Environment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Learner+Engagement%22">Learner Engagement</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Context+Effect%22">Context Effect</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistics%22">Statistics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Institutional+Characteristics%22">Institutional Characteristics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prior+Learning%22">Prior Learning</searchLink>
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  Data: 10.1080/0969594X.2022.2037508
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: We examined whether students were accurate in predicting their test performance two testing contexts (low-stakes and high-stakes). The sample comprised U.S. high school students enrolled in an advanced placement (AP) statistics course during the 2017-2018 academic year (N=209; M[subscript age]=16.6 years). We found that even two months before taking the AP exam, a high stakes summative assessment, students were moderately accurate in predicting their actual scores ([kappa][subscript weighted]=0.62). When the same variables were entered into models predicting inaccuracy and overconfidence bias, results did not provide evidence that age, gender, parental education, number of math classes previously taken, or course engagement accounted for variation in accuracy. Overconfidence bias differed between students enrolled at different schools. Results indicated that students' predictions of performance were positively associated with performance in both low- and high-stakes testing contexts. The findings shed light on ways to leverage students' self-assessment for learning.
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  Data: 2024
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        Value: 10.1080/0969594X.2022.2037508
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      – Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 26
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: High School Students
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Self Evaluation (Individuals)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Student Attitudes
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      – SubjectFull: High Stakes Tests
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Advanced Placement Programs
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tests
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      – SubjectFull: Student Evaluation
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      – SubjectFull: Accuracy
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      – SubjectFull: Scores
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      – SubjectFull: Age Differences
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Gender Differences
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      – SubjectFull: Parent Background
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      – SubjectFull: Educational Attainment
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      – SubjectFull: Mathematics Instruction
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      – SubjectFull: Correlation
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      – SubjectFull: Classroom Environment
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      – SubjectFull: Learner Engagement
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      – SubjectFull: Statistics
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      – SubjectFull: Institutional Characteristics
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      – SubjectFull: Prior Learning
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      – TitleFull: Are High School Students Accurate in Predicting Their AP Exam Scores?: Examining Inaccuracy and Overconfidence of Students' Predictions
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