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Validity of ACT Composite Score and High School GPA for Predicting Probability of Timely Degree Completion: Examining First-Year College GPA as a Mediator. ACT Research. Research Report. R2419

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Title: Validity of ACT Composite Score and High School GPA for Predicting Probability of Timely Degree Completion: Examining First-Year College GPA as a Mediator. ACT Research. Research Report. R2419
Language: English
Authors: Riley N. Loria, Edgar I. Sanchez, ACT Education Corp.
Source: ACT Education Corp. 2024.
Availability: ACT Education Corp. 500 ACT Drive, P.O. Box 168, Iowa City, IA 52243-0168. Tel: 319-337-1270; Web site: http://www.act.org
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 27
Publication Date: 2024
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Postsecondary Education
High Schools
Secondary Education
Descriptors: College Entrance Examinations, Predictive Validity, Time to Degree, Models, Validity, Educational Attainment, Higher Education, High School Students, Academic Achievement, Scores, Grade Point Average, College Graduates, College Admission, Resource Allocation, At Risk Students, Dropouts, College Freshmen, Student Characteristics, Race, Ethnicity, Family Income, Gender Differences
Assessment and Survey Identifiers: ACT Assessment
Abstract: Effectively predicting academic success is essential for providing students with the resources they need to succeed in their careers and for matching individuals to postsecondary institutions that suit their needs. Despite evidence for ACT scores as meaningful predictors of both first-year grade point average (FYGPA) and degree completion, little work has examined the pathway by which FYGPA might partially mediate the relationship between degree completion and pre-college academic predictors like ACT Composite (ACTC) score. This study examined the path by which ACTC score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) can be used to directly predict FYGPA and, in turn, to indirectly predict the probability of degree completion. A better understanding of these connections can improve the predictive validity of future models that can aid admissions decisions and help colleges appropriately allocate resources to students who may be at risk of attrition due to early academic challenges. The sample consisted of students from one U.S. state who entered a 4-year public postsecondary school in the fall of 2017. Data in this project were clustered, with students nested within their starting institution (i.e., the first 4-year postsecondary institution they attended). Across the 19,515 students, a total of 30 institutions/clusters are included. Path analysis found that FYGPA is a significant mediator of the effect of ACTC score and HSGPA on degree completion, and HSGPA and ACTC score both had significant direct effects on the probability of degree completion by Years 4 and 6, as well as on FYGPA.
Abstractor: ERIC
Entry Date: 2025
Accession Number: ED673806
Database: ERIC
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  Data: Validity of ACT Composite Score and High School GPA for Predicting Probability of Timely Degree Completion: Examining First-Year College GPA as a Mediator. ACT Research. Research Report. R2419
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  Data: ACT Education Corp. 500 ACT Drive, P.O. Box 168, Iowa City, IA 52243-0168. Tel: 319-337-1270; Web site: http://www.act.org
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  Data: Effectively predicting academic success is essential for providing students with the resources they need to succeed in their careers and for matching individuals to postsecondary institutions that suit their needs. Despite evidence for ACT scores as meaningful predictors of both first-year grade point average (FYGPA) and degree completion, little work has examined the pathway by which FYGPA might partially mediate the relationship between degree completion and pre-college academic predictors like ACT Composite (ACTC) score. This study examined the path by which ACTC score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) can be used to directly predict FYGPA and, in turn, to indirectly predict the probability of degree completion. A better understanding of these connections can improve the predictive validity of future models that can aid admissions decisions and help colleges appropriately allocate resources to students who may be at risk of attrition due to early academic challenges. The sample consisted of students from one U.S. state who entered a 4-year public postsecondary school in the fall of 2017. Data in this project were clustered, with students nested within their starting institution (i.e., the first 4-year postsecondary institution they attended). Across the 19,515 students, a total of 30 institutions/clusters are included. Path analysis found that FYGPA is a significant mediator of the effect of ACTC score and HSGPA on degree completion, and HSGPA and ACTC score both had significant direct effects on the probability of degree completion by Years 4 and 6, as well as on FYGPA.
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    Languages:
      – Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 27
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: College Entrance Examinations
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Predictive Validity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Time to Degree
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      – SubjectFull: Models
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      – SubjectFull: Validity
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      – SubjectFull: Educational Attainment
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      – SubjectFull: Gender Differences
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      – SubjectFull: ACT Assessment
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      – TitleFull: Validity of ACT Composite Score and High School GPA for Predicting Probability of Timely Degree Completion: Examining First-Year College GPA as a Mediator. ACT Research. Research Report. R2419
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