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The Impacts of Grade Retention Policy with Minimal Retention. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1188

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Title: The Impacts of Grade Retention Policy with Minimal Retention. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1188
Language: English
Authors: Jordan S. Berne, Brian A. Jacob, Christina Weiland, Katharine O. Strunk, Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University
Source: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. 2025.
Availability: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 64
Publication Date: 2025
Sponsoring Agency: Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Contract Number: R305H190004
R305B200011
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Elementary Education
Early Childhood Education
Grade 3
Primary Education
Descriptors: Grade Repetition, School Policy, Reading Difficulties, State Policy, State Legislation, Educational Legislation, Elementary School Students, Grade 3, Reading Tests, Scores, At Risk Students, Identification, Intervention, Bias, Emergent Literacy
Geographic Terms: Michigan
Abstract: State laws that mandate in-grade retention for struggling readers are widespread in the U.S., covering 34% of public-school third graders in 2023-24. This study investigates the impacts of Michigan's third-grade reading law on subsequent test scores and school progress outcomes for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 third-grade cohorts. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, we find that being flagged for retention raises students' reading scores in the next school year by 0.045 standard deviations (SD)--a modest but meaningful impact. Because being flagged increases the likelihood of actually being retained by only 3.4 percentage points, the implied effect of retention itself under standard "fuzzy" RD assumptions would be an implausibly large 1.3 SD. This result suggests flagging may affect outcomes via mechanisms other than just retention, a violation of the exclusion restriction. Indeed, we estimate similar effects even in districts that retain no students. Survey evidence suggests flagged students receive more intensive reading support even if they are not retained. Our findings suggest retention may be a much less important component of literacy reforms than previously understood. Finally, given the similarity between Michigan's reading law and those in other states, our findings raise concerns about potential bias in previously estimated retention effects.
Abstractor: As Provided
IES Funded: Yes
Entry Date: 2025
Accession Number: ED674057
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
CustomLinks:
  – Url: https://eric.ed.gov/contentdelivery/servlet/ERICServlet?accno=ED674057
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PubType: Report
PubTypeId: report
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  Data: The Impacts of Grade Retention Policy with Minimal Retention. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1188
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jordan+S%2E+Berne%22">Jordan S. Berne</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Brian+A%2E+Jacob%22">Brian A. Jacob</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Christina+Weiland%22">Christina Weiland</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Katharine+O%2E+Strunk%22">Katharine O. Strunk</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Annenberg+Institute+for+School+Reform+at+Brown+University%22">Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University</searchLink>
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  Data: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+Repetition%22">Grade Repetition</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22School+Policy%22">School Policy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Reading+Difficulties%22">Reading Difficulties</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22State+Policy%22">State Policy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22State+Legislation%22">State Legislation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Legislation%22">Educational Legislation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Elementary+School+Students%22">Elementary School Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+3%22">Grade 3</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Reading+Tests%22">Reading Tests</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Scores%22">Scores</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22At+Risk+Students%22">At Risk Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Identification%22">Identification</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Intervention%22">Intervention</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bias%22">Bias</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Emergent+Literacy%22">Emergent Literacy</searchLink>
– Name: Subject
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Michigan%22">Michigan</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: State laws that mandate in-grade retention for struggling readers are widespread in the U.S., covering 34% of public-school third graders in 2023-24. This study investigates the impacts of Michigan's third-grade reading law on subsequent test scores and school progress outcomes for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 third-grade cohorts. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, we find that being flagged for retention raises students' reading scores in the next school year by 0.045 standard deviations (SD)--a modest but meaningful impact. Because being flagged increases the likelihood of actually being retained by only 3.4 percentage points, the implied effect of retention itself under standard "fuzzy" RD assumptions would be an implausibly large 1.3 SD. This result suggests flagging may affect outcomes via mechanisms other than just retention, a violation of the exclusion restriction. Indeed, we estimate similar effects even in districts that retain no students. Survey evidence suggests flagged students receive more intensive reading support even if they are not retained. Our findings suggest retention may be a much less important component of literacy reforms than previously understood. Finally, given the similarity between Michigan's reading law and those in other states, our findings raise concerns about potential bias in previously estimated retention effects.
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  Label: Abstractor
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  Data: As Provided
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  Data: Yes
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  Data: 2025
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  Data: ED674057
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=ED674057
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  BibEntity:
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 64
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Grade Repetition
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: School Policy
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Reading Difficulties
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: State Policy
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: State Legislation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational Legislation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Elementary School Students
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Grade 3
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Reading Tests
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Scores
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: At Risk Students
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Identification
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Intervention
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Bias
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Emergent Literacy
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Michigan
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: The Impacts of Grade Retention Policy with Minimal Retention. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1188
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              Y: 2025
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