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Identifying At-Risk Course Combinations for Freshman Students Using Market Basket Analysis. The AIR Professional File, Fall 2025. Article 181

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Title: Identifying At-Risk Course Combinations for Freshman Students Using Market Basket Analysis. The AIR Professional File, Fall 2025. Article 181
Language: English
Authors: Fikrewold Bitew, Khoi To, Association for Institutional Research (AIR)
Source: Association for Institutional Research. 2025.
Availability: Association for Institutional Research. 1435 East Piedmont Drive Suite 211, Tallahassee, FL 32308. Tel: 850-385-4155; Fax: 850-383-5180; e-mail: air@airweb.org; Web site: http://www.airweb.org
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 23
Publication Date: 2025
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Postsecondary Education
Descriptors: College Freshmen, At Risk Students, Academic Persistence, Full Time Students, Course Selection (Students), Academic Achievement, Academic Failure, State Universities, School Holding Power
Geographic Terms: Texas (San Antonio)
Abstract: As institutions increasingly focus on improving student retention and graduation rates, understanding factors that influence student success has become crucial. Course failures in students' first terms have been shown to have strong associations with student retention. While extensive research has analyzed failure rates of individual courses, this study advances the field by using market basket analysis to identify courses that, when taken during the same semester, lead to high probabilities of failure. These insights are not available when courses are analyzed individually. Using data from 7,466 first-time, full-time freshman students across five cohorts (Fall 2018-Fall 2022) at The University of Texas at San Antonio, we applied the Apriori algorithm to analyze 15,698 course enrollment records with failing grades (F, D-, D, D+). Our findings identified seven high-risk course combinations, with mathematics courses (MAT 1053, MAT 1073) appearing in four combinations and a writing course (WRC 1013) appearing in five combinations. Chi-square analyses revealed that students taking both courses in these combinations had significantly lower first-term retention rates (69.3%-81.0% vs. 83.0%-86.5%) and first-year retention rates (34.6%-54.0% vs. 54.6%-59.6%) compared to students taking only one course from the same combination.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: ED677935
Database: ERIC
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  Data: As institutions increasingly focus on improving student retention and graduation rates, understanding factors that influence student success has become crucial. Course failures in students' first terms have been shown to have strong associations with student retention. While extensive research has analyzed failure rates of individual courses, this study advances the field by using market basket analysis to identify courses that, when taken during the same semester, lead to high probabilities of failure. These insights are not available when courses are analyzed individually. Using data from 7,466 first-time, full-time freshman students across five cohorts (Fall 2018-Fall 2022) at The University of Texas at San Antonio, we applied the Apriori algorithm to analyze 15,698 course enrollment records with failing grades (F, D-, D, D+). Our findings identified seven high-risk course combinations, with mathematics courses (MAT 1053, MAT 1073) appearing in four combinations and a writing course (WRC 1013) appearing in five combinations. Chi-square analyses revealed that students taking both courses in these combinations had significantly lower first-term retention rates (69.3%-81.0% vs. 83.0%-86.5%) and first-year retention rates (34.6%-54.0% vs. 54.6%-59.6%) compared to students taking only one course from the same combination.
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