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Assessing the Academic Mobility on Test and Non-Test Outcomes for Students from Third Grade through High School. CEDR Working Paper No. 11072025-2

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Title: Assessing the Academic Mobility on Test and Non-Test Outcomes for Students from Third Grade through High School. CEDR Working Paper No. 11072025-2
Language: English
Authors: Dan Goldhaber, Stephanie Liddle, Suvekshya Gautam, University of Washington, Bothell. Center for Education Data & Research (CEDR)
Source: Center for Education Data & Research. 2025.
Availability: Center for Education Data & Research. 3876 Bridge Way North Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103. Tel: 206-547-5585; Fax: 206-547-1641; e-mail: cedr@uw.edu; Web site: http://www.cedr.us
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 58
Publication Date: 2025
Sponsoring Agency: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Elementary Secondary Education
Descriptors: Elementary Secondary Education, Grade Level Differences, Test Results, Race, Sex, Student Characteristics, Outcomes of Education, Predictor Variables, Academic Achievement, Achievement Gap, Class Rank, Mathematics Achievement, Reading Achievement
Geographic Terms: Washington
Abstract: While achievement gaps have been widely studied, less attention has been given to how these gaps relate to students' patterns of "academic mobility"--that is, how students' relative academic standing changes from early to later grades. Using rich administrative data from Washington state, we apply an academic mobility framework to examine both test-based and non-test outcomes for student subgroups defined by race/ethnicity and gender, tracking their progress from 3rd grade through high school. Our findings align with prior research: after controlling for other student characteristics, higher performance on 3rd or 8th grade assessments strongly predicts better high school outcomes, including test scores, GPAs, college-level course-taking in math and ELA, graduation rates, and lower rates of absenteeism and disciplinary incidents. We also find that early math achievement is a stronger predictor of later outcomes than early ELA performance. Although some initially low-performing students demonstrate upward mobility, 3rd grade test scores remain powerful predictors of long-term academic trajectories. Students who begin behind tend to stay behind. Though magnitudes of academic mobility vary significantly across outcomes and subgroups. Asian students, especially Asian females, were the most upwardly mobile subgroup while Black males were often, though not always, the least mobile. Gender gaps also vary in size nearly always favoring females. Our results underscore the need for earlier and more intensive interventions to change the educational trajectories of students who struggle academically.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Access URL: https://www.cedr.us/working-papers
Accession Number: ED678537
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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PubType: Report
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  Data: Assessing the Academic Mobility on Test and Non-Test Outcomes for Students from Third Grade through High School. CEDR Working Paper No. 11072025-2
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dan+Goldhaber%22">Dan Goldhaber</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stephanie+Liddle%22">Stephanie Liddle</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Suvekshya+Gautam%22">Suvekshya Gautam</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22University+of+Washington%2C+Bothell%2E+Center+for+Education+Data+%26+Research+%28CEDR%29%22">University of Washington, Bothell. Center for Education Data & Research (CEDR)</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Center+for+Education+Data+%26+Research%22"><i>Center for Education Data & Research</i></searchLink>. 2025.
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  Data: Center for Education Data & Research. 3876 Bridge Way North Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103. Tel: 206-547-5585; Fax: 206-547-1641; e-mail: cedr@uw.edu; Web site: http://www.cedr.us
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  Data: 58
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  Data: 2025
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  Data: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Elementary+Secondary+Education%22">Elementary Secondary Education</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Elementary+Secondary+Education%22">Elementary Secondary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+Level+Differences%22">Grade Level Differences</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Test+Results%22">Test Results</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Race%22">Race</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Sex%22">Sex</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Student+Characteristics%22">Student Characteristics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Outcomes+of+Education%22">Outcomes of Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Predictor+Variables%22">Predictor Variables</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Academic+Achievement%22">Academic Achievement</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Achievement+Gap%22">Achievement Gap</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Class+Rank%22">Class Rank</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematics+Achievement%22">Mathematics Achievement</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Reading+Achievement%22">Reading Achievement</searchLink>
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  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Washington%22">Washington</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: While achievement gaps have been widely studied, less attention has been given to how these gaps relate to students' patterns of "academic mobility"--that is, how students' relative academic standing changes from early to later grades. Using rich administrative data from Washington state, we apply an academic mobility framework to examine both test-based and non-test outcomes for student subgroups defined by race/ethnicity and gender, tracking their progress from 3rd grade through high school. Our findings align with prior research: after controlling for other student characteristics, higher performance on 3rd or 8th grade assessments strongly predicts better high school outcomes, including test scores, GPAs, college-level course-taking in math and ELA, graduation rates, and lower rates of absenteeism and disciplinary incidents. We also find that early math achievement is a stronger predictor of later outcomes than early ELA performance. Although some initially low-performing students demonstrate upward mobility, 3rd grade test scores remain powerful predictors of long-term academic trajectories. Students who begin behind tend to stay behind. Though magnitudes of academic mobility vary significantly across outcomes and subgroups. Asian students, especially Asian females, were the most upwardly mobile subgroup while Black males were often, though not always, the least mobile. Gender gaps also vary in size nearly always favoring females. Our results underscore the need for earlier and more intensive interventions to change the educational trajectories of students who struggle academically.
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  Data: As Provided
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: <link linkTarget="URL" linkTerm="https://www.cedr.us/working-papers" linkWindow="_blank">https://www.cedr.us/working-papers</link>
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  Data: ED678537
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    Languages:
      – Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 58
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Elementary Secondary Education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Grade Level Differences
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Test Results
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Race
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Sex
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Student Characteristics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Outcomes of Education
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      – SubjectFull: Predictor Variables
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      – SubjectFull: Academic Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Achievement Gap
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      – SubjectFull: Class Rank
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      – SubjectFull: Mathematics Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Reading Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Washington
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Assessing the Academic Mobility on Test and Non-Test Outcomes for Students from Third Grade through High School. CEDR Working Paper No. 11072025-2
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