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The Effect of Retention Threat on Student Learning Gains: Evidence from Ohio. EdWorkingPaper No. 26-1527

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Title: The Effect of Retention Threat on Student Learning Gains: Evidence from Ohio. EdWorkingPaper No. 26-1527
Language: English
Authors: Sarah Souders, Robert Bifulco, Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University
Source: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. 2026.
Availability: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 101
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Early Childhood Education
Elementary Education
Grade 3
Primary Education
Grade 4
Intermediate Grades
Grade 5
Middle Schools
Grade 6
Grade 7
Junior High Schools
Secondary Education
Grade 8
Descriptors: Academic Achievement, Grade 3, Grade Repetition, English Instruction, Language Arts, Grade 4, Grade 5, Grade 6, Grade 7, Educational Policy, Grade 8, Outcomes of Education, Mathematics Achievement
Geographic Terms: Ohio
Abstract: Grade retention policies create incentives for students to make adequate progress ahead of evaluation. The threat of retention thus has the potential to affect all students' academic outcomes, increasing achievement especially among students with test scores near the retention policy's threshold. By using unique data from Ohio which allows us to implement a regression discontinuity design, we find that students exposed to the threat of retention in Grade 3 experience larger learning gains than students who are not under retention threat. Gains in Grade 3 English Language Arts (ELA) are 0.077 SD and although effects partially fade over time, positive effects persist through Grade 7. Positive and lasting effects are detected across cohorts, student groups, and schools. We also examine non-test outcomes, finding reductions in student absences but limited evidence of effects on disciplinary incidents or the probability of retention beyond Grade 3. Exploration of possible mechanisms suggests that assignment to targeted literacy interventions contributes to the retention threat effect. We also show that retention threat effects are largest in schools facing stronger accountability pressures and with more capacity to respond to accountability incentives. This paper offers novel evidence of the broad effects of retention policy and provides results to inform early literacy policy initiatives, as many states debate the role of retention mandates in such initiatives.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: ED682030
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
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  Data: The Effect of Retention Threat on Student Learning Gains: Evidence from Ohio. EdWorkingPaper No. 26-1527
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sarah+Souders%22">Sarah Souders</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Robert+Bifulco%22">Robert Bifulco</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Annenberg+Institute+for+School+Reform+at+Brown+University%22">Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University</searchLink>
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  Data: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
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  Label: Page Count
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  Data: 101
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: Reports - Research
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Early+Childhood+Education%22">Early Childhood Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Elementary+Education%22">Elementary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Grade+3%22">Grade 3</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Primary+Education%22">Primary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Grade+4%22">Grade 4</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Intermediate+Grades%22">Intermediate Grades</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Grade+5%22">Grade 5</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Middle+Schools%22">Middle Schools</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Grade+6%22">Grade 6</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Grade+7%22">Grade 7</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Junior+High+Schools%22">Junior High Schools</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Secondary+Education%22">Secondary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Grade+8%22">Grade 8</searchLink>
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  Label: Descriptors
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Academic+Achievement%22">Academic Achievement</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+3%22">Grade 3</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+Repetition%22">Grade Repetition</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22English+Instruction%22">English Instruction</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Language+Arts%22">Language Arts</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+4%22">Grade 4</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+5%22">Grade 5</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+6%22">Grade 6</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+7%22">Grade 7</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Policy%22">Educational Policy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+8%22">Grade 8</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Outcomes+of+Education%22">Outcomes of Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mathematics+Achievement%22">Mathematics Achievement</searchLink>
– Name: Subject
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ohio%22">Ohio</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Grade retention policies create incentives for students to make adequate progress ahead of evaluation. The threat of retention thus has the potential to affect all students' academic outcomes, increasing achievement especially among students with test scores near the retention policy's threshold. By using unique data from Ohio which allows us to implement a regression discontinuity design, we find that students exposed to the threat of retention in Grade 3 experience larger learning gains than students who are not under retention threat. Gains in Grade 3 English Language Arts (ELA) are 0.077 SD and although effects partially fade over time, positive effects persist through Grade 7. Positive and lasting effects are detected across cohorts, student groups, and schools. We also examine non-test outcomes, finding reductions in student absences but limited evidence of effects on disciplinary incidents or the probability of retention beyond Grade 3. Exploration of possible mechanisms suggests that assignment to targeted literacy interventions contributes to the retention threat effect. We also show that retention threat effects are largest in schools facing stronger accountability pressures and with more capacity to respond to accountability incentives. This paper offers novel evidence of the broad effects of retention policy and provides results to inform early literacy policy initiatives, as many states debate the role of retention mandates in such initiatives.
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: ED682030
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=ED682030
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    Languages:
      – Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 101
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Academic Achievement
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Grade 3
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Grade Repetition
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      – SubjectFull: English Instruction
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Language Arts
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      – SubjectFull: Grade 4
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Grade 5
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      – SubjectFull: Grade 6
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      – SubjectFull: Grade 7
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      – SubjectFull: Educational Policy
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      – SubjectFull: Grade 8
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      – SubjectFull: Outcomes of Education
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      – SubjectFull: Mathematics Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Ohio
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      – TitleFull: The Effect of Retention Threat on Student Learning Gains: Evidence from Ohio. EdWorkingPaper No. 26-1527
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