Relative Age Effects in International Rugby Union: Consequences of Changing the Cutoff Date and Exploring Youth to Senior Transitions

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Title: Relative Age Effects in International Rugby Union: Consequences of Changing the Cutoff Date and Exploring Youth to Senior Transitions
Language: English
Authors: Kelly, Adam L. (ORCID 0000-0003-4929-1067), Jackson, Daniel T., Barrell, Donald (ORCID 0000-0001-9174-1418), Burke, Kate, Baker, Joseph (ORCID 0000-0002-5686-1737)
Source: High Ability Studies. 2023 34(1):1-20.
Availability: Routledge. Available from: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. 530 Walnut Street Suite 850, Philadelphia, PA 19106. Tel: 800-354-1420; Tel: 215-625-8900; Fax: 215-207-0050; Web site: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 20
Publication Date: 2023
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: Foreign Countries, Team Sports, Athletes, Age, Talent Identification, Talent Development, Selection Criteria
Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
DOI: 10.1080/13598139.2021.1997722
ISSN: 1359-8139
1469-834X
Abstract: Relative age effects (RAEs) are independent of specific cutoff dates that can vary from country to country. However, the consequences of changing the selection cutoff dates within a national sport organization are unknown. Further, the transition from international youth to senior representation is yet to be explored in rugby union. Thus, the aims of this article were twofold: "Study 1" compared the birth quarter (BQ) distributions of the England Rugby Football Union (RFU) under-18 representatives based on September to August and January to December selection cutoff dates. "Study 2" explored the BQ distributions within the RFU international development pathway through analyzing the under-18, under-20, and senior representatives, as well as the BQ distributions of youth players who were subsequently capped at senior level. Chi-square analysis was used to compare BQ distributions in each sample against expected distributions. Results revealed a corresponding shift of a skewed birthdate distribution favoring chronologically older players that was mediated by specific cutoff dates (p < 0.05). Moreover, whilst RAEs were present within both youth cohorts (p < 0.05), it was not apparent at the senior level (p > 0.05). Furthermore, during the transition from international youth to senior representation, more chronologically older players were successfully capped.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2023
Accession Number: EJ1387974
Database: ERIC
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  Value: &lt;anid&gt;AN0163552898;0v001jun.23;2023May09.06:12;v2.2.500&lt;/anid&gt; &lt;title id=&quot;AN0163552898-1&quot;&gt;Relative age effects in international rugby union: Consequences of changing the cutoff date and exploring youth to senior transitions&#160;&lt;/title&gt; &lt;p&gt;Relative age effects (RAEs) are independent of specific cutoff dates that can vary from country to country. However, the consequences of changing the selection cutoff dates within a national sport organization are unknown. Further, the transition from international youth to senior representation is yet to be explored in rugby union. Thus, the aims of this article were twofold: Study 1 compared the birth quarter (BQ) distributions of the England Rugby Football Union (RFU) under-18 representatives based on September to August and January to December selection cutoff dates. Study 2 explored the BQ distributions within the RFU international development pathway through analyzing the under-18, under-20, and senior representatives, as well as the BQ distributions of youth players who were subsequently capped at senior level. Chi-square analysis was used to compare BQ distributions in each sample against expected distributions. Results revealed a corresponding shift of a skewed birthdate distribution favoring chronologically older players that was mediated by specific cutoff dates (p &amp;lt; 0.05). Moreover, whilst RAEs were present within both youth cohorts (p &amp;lt; 0.05), it was not apparent at the senior level (p &amp;gt; 0.05). Furthermore, during the transition from international youth to senior representation, more chronologically older players were successfully capped.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Keywords: Talent identification; talent development; athlete development; reversal effect; age grade rugby; rugby football union&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-2&quot;&gt;Introduction&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;England&#39;s national governing body, the Rugby Football Union (RFU), is responsible for regulating youth and senior international rugby union. The purpose of the RFU&#39;s international development pathway is to prepare young players for senior team representation. However, despite this proposed trajectory, the multidimensional nature of the player development process, coupled with dynamic organizational structures, may not always align with these intended outcomes (Baxter-Jones, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib5&quot; id=&quot;ref1&quot;&gt;5&lt;/reflink&gt;]). One category of phenomenon affecting performance and participation in youth sport are Relative Age Effects (RAEs; Barnsley, Thompson, &amp;amp; Barnsley, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib4&quot; id=&quot;ref2&quot;&gt;4&lt;/reflink&gt;]). RAEs refer to the skewed birthdate distribution within athlete development systems that reflect underrepresentation of certain groups (Musch &amp;amp; Grondin, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib50&quot; id=&quot;ref3&quot;&gt;50&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Within high-performance team sports for instance, RAEs have been identified in Australian Rules football (Haycraft, Kovalchik, Pyne, Larkin, &amp;amp; Robertson, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib28&quot; id=&quot;ref4&quot;&gt;28&lt;/reflink&gt;]), basketball (Steingr&#246;ver, Wattie, Baker, Helsen, &amp;amp; Schorer, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib59&quot; id=&quot;ref5&quot;&gt;59&lt;/reflink&gt;]), handball (Schorer, Wattie, &amp;amp; Baker, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib55&quot; id=&quot;ref6&quot;&gt;55&lt;/reflink&gt;]), ice hockey (Addona &amp;amp; Yates, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib2&quot; id=&quot;ref7&quot;&gt;2&lt;/reflink&gt;]), rugby league (Till, Cobley, O&#39; Hara, Cooke, &amp;amp; Chapman, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib61&quot; id=&quot;ref8&quot;&gt;61&lt;/reflink&gt;]), soccer (Helsen, van Winckel, &amp;amp; Williams, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib30&quot; id=&quot;ref9&quot;&gt;30&lt;/reflink&gt;]), and volleyball (Campos, Stanganelli, Rabelo, Campos, &amp;amp; Pellegrinotti, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib11&quot; id=&quot;ref10&quot;&gt;11&lt;/reflink&gt;]). These studies highlight the overrepresentation of relatively older athletes in the cohort (i.e., those born immediately closest to the date used for age group selection) compared to relatively younger athletes (i.e., those born furthest from the selection date).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The contact nature of rugby union, combined with the sport-specific physical performance requirements, may further magnify the physiological advantages of young players who are chronologically older (Baker, Schorer, Cobley, Br&#228;utigam, &amp;amp; B&#252;sch, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib3&quot; id=&quot;ref11&quot;&gt;3&lt;/reflink&gt;]). For example, Till et al. ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib62&quot; id=&quot;ref12&quot;&gt;62&lt;/reflink&gt;]) illustrated how player development in rugby union is characterized by a broad range of physical factors, including body size, speed, change of direction speed, high-intensity running ability, muscular strength, and power. As a result, those born near the start of the cutoff date within an age group are more likely to be more advanced in their physical development compared to their later born peers. Since physical qualities can positively influence performance and selection outcomes in rugby union, coaches may unconsciously overlook the bias of older relative age, enhanced growth and maturation, and greater physical capacities at youth level (e.g., Furley &amp;amp; Memmert, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib23&quot; id=&quot;ref13&quot;&gt;23&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Hancock, Ste-Marie, &amp;amp; Young, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib27&quot; id=&quot;ref14&quot;&gt;27&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Kelly, Jackson et al. ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib36&quot; id=&quot;ref15&quot;&gt;36&lt;/reflink&gt;]). In addition, other developmental or maturational advantages, such as enhanced cognitive and social development, have been suggested as explanations for why chronologically older players outperform their younger counterparts (Edgar &amp;amp; O&#39;Donoghue, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib21&quot; id=&quot;ref16&quot;&gt;21&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Kelly &amp;amp; Williams, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib39&quot; id=&quot;ref17&quot;&gt;39&lt;/reflink&gt;]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-3&quot;&gt;Study 1 – consequences of changing the cutoff date&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;Previous research has illustrated RAEs are independent of specific cutoff dates, which can vary from country to country. For example, Musch and Hay ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib51&quot; id=&quot;ref18&quot;&gt;51&lt;/reflink&gt;]) examined the cross-cultural implications of RAEs from Australia (January to December), Brazil, Germany (both August to July), and Japan (April to March). They revealed that despite variability in cutoff dates the RAE was prevalent in each country. Individual studies exploring a team sport context (e.g., football, baseball, ice hockey), but with different selection cutoff dates according to national policies (e.g., September to August; January to December; April to March), have also revealed comparable RAEs (see Kelly, Jackson, et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib37&quot; id=&quot;ref19&quot;&gt;37&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Nakata &amp;amp; Sakamoto, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib52&quot; id=&quot;ref20&quot;&gt;52&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Turnnidge, Hancock, &amp;amp; C&#244;t&#233;, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib63&quot; id=&quot;ref21&quot;&gt;63&lt;/reflink&gt;]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In rugby union, English (McCarthy, Collins, &amp;amp; Court, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib46&quot; id=&quot;ref22&quot;&gt;46&lt;/reflink&gt;]) and Welsh (Lewis, Morgan, &amp;amp; Cooper, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib42&quot; id=&quot;ref23&quot;&gt;42&lt;/reflink&gt;]) populated RAE studies have used a September to August cutoff date. In comparison, work from countries such as Canada and New Zealand (Lemez, MacMahon, &amp;amp; Weir, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib41&quot; id=&quot;ref24&quot;&gt;41&lt;/reflink&gt;]) have applied a January to December cutoff date. Interestingly however, when these nations compete against one another during international competitions, international governing bodies restrict countries to using the same annual cutoff dates to ensure all ages fairly align for equal competition. In a hypothetical context, despite the different selection dates used between nations to group participants for youth rugby union, during international competitions, these nations would all be governed by the same cutoff date. As such, some nations may be required to adapt their cutoff dates to match that of the international governing body. However, the implications of changing the cutoff date within a national organizational structure based on international governing body regulations are unknown.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the United Kingdom, the annual selection year is typically September to August. Thus, when England under-18s compete in UK-based competitions (e.g., vs. Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland), these nations would typically use this particular cutoff date. However, when competing against other countries, the England under-18 cutoff dates may change to January to December to conform opponents&#39; (e.g., vs. New Zealand, Australia, South Africa) or governing body (e.g., European Championships, World Rugby) regulations.[&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib1&quot; id=&quot;ref25&quot;&gt;1&lt;/reflink&gt;] Although many studies on the RAE exist, research is yet to examine the impact of such changes to the selection cutoff dates on BQ distributions in rugby union. As such, a corresponding shift in the international birthdate distribution would provide new evidence for a RAE that is mediated by the cutoff date within a single competitive organizational structure. Furthermore, the nationwide nature of the current study offers a unique exploration of the RAE and its prevalence during the transition from youth level to senior representation in the England RFU pathway.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The aim of &lt;emph&gt;Study 1&lt;/emph&gt; was to compare the BQ distributions of RFU under-18 representatives, based on squad selection for all fixtures that had a specific cutoff date from either September to August or January to December.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-4&quot;&gt;Methods&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-5&quot;&gt;Sample and procedure&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The RFU under-18 representatives participated in this study. Squad selection for all fixtures[&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib2&quot; id=&quot;ref26&quot;&gt;2&lt;/reflink&gt;] that had a specific cutoff date across twelve years (2008–2019[&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib3&quot; id=&quot;ref27&quot;&gt;3&lt;/reflink&gt;]) were collated for analysis. Players who were selected for a fixture by the RFU were allocated into a group based on whether the match had a September to August (Group 1; &lt;emph&gt;n&lt;/emph&gt; = 665) or a January to December (Group 2; &lt;emph&gt;n&lt;/emph&gt; = 276) cutoff date. The twelve months of the year were divided into four BQs in both groups conforming to the strategy often used to examine RAEs (e.g., Kelly, Jackson, et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib39&quot; id=&quot;ref28&quot;&gt;39&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Group 1 had September classified as &lt;emph&gt;month 1&lt;/emph&gt; and August &lt;emph&gt;month 12&lt;/emph&gt;, whilst Group 2 had January classified as &lt;emph&gt;month 1&lt;/emph&gt; and December &lt;emph&gt;month 12&lt;/emph&gt;. Each player was assigned to a group and BQ based on their squad selection and date of birth. These were subsequently compared to the expected distribution of an assumed equal number of players in each BQ (Schorer et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib55&quot; id=&quot;ref29&quot;&gt;55&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Moreover, these were compared to the age-grade norms based on recreational participation values (Kelly, Jackson, Barrell, Burke, &amp;amp; Till, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib36&quot; id=&quot;ref30&quot;&gt;36&lt;/reflink&gt;]), as suggested by Delorme, Boich&#233;, and Raspaud ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib18&quot; id=&quot;ref31&quot;&gt;18&lt;/reflink&gt;]). The study received institutional ethics approval from both England RFU and Birmingham City University.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-6&quot;&gt;Data analysis&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;Chi-square (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt;) analysis was used to compare BQ distributions in the sample against expected distributions, following procedures outlined by McHugh ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib48&quot; id=&quot;ref32&quot;&gt;48&lt;/reflink&gt;]). As this test does not reveal the magnitude of difference between quartile distributions for significant chi-square outputs, Cramer&#39;s V was also used. The Cramer&#39;s V was interpreted as per conventional thresholds for correlation; a value of 0.06 or more would indicate a small effect size, 0.17 or more would indicate a medium effect size, and 0.29 or more would indicate a large effect size (Cohen, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib14&quot; id=&quot;ref33&quot;&gt;14&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Odds Ratios (ORs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) were used to compare the difference in the BQs for each under-18 group. Results were considered statistically significant when &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.05.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-7&quot;&gt;Results&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The September to August BQ distribution was significantly skewed, with a medium effect size, when compared to the expected equal BQ distribution (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 34.870, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001, &lt;emph&gt;V&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.25). Significant ORs revealed: (a) BQ1s were 1.91 (CI 1.23–3.03) times more likely to be selected than BQ2s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.006); (b) BQ1s were 1.91 (CI 1.21–2) times more likely to be selected than BQ3s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001); and, (c) BQ1s were 2.27 (CI 1.41–3.64) times more likely to be selected than BQ4s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001). When compared to the age-grade norms based on recreational participation values, the September to August BQ distribution was significantly skewed with a medium effect size (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 20.666, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001, &lt;emph&gt;V&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.19). Significant ORs revealed: (a) BQ1s were 1.69 (CI 1.07–2.67) times more likely to be selected than BQ2s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.02); (b) BQ1s were 1.67 (CI 1.06–1.77) times more likely to be selected than BQ3s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001); and, (c) BQ1s were 1.84 (CI 1.15–2.95) times more likely to be selected than BQ4s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.01).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The January to December BQ distribution was also significantly skewed, with a large effect size, compared to the expected equal BQ distribution (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 124.263, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.0001, &lt;emph&gt;V&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.31). Significant ORs revealed: (a) BQ1s were 1.39 (CI 1.04–1.52)times more likely to be selected than BQ3s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.025); (b) BQ1s were 4.92 (CI 3.38–7.16) times more likely to be selected than BQ4s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001); (c) BQ2s were 4.12 (CI 2.82–6.02) times more likely to be selected than BQ4s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.0001); and, (d) BQ3s were 3.53 (CI 2.41–5.18) times more likely to be selected than BQ4s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001). When compared to the age-grade norms based on recreational participation values, the January to December BQ distribution was significantly skewed with a medium effect size (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 94.413, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001, &lt;emph&gt;V&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.27). Significant ORs revealed: (a) BQ1s were 4 (CI 2.75–5.81) times more likely to be selected than BQ4s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001); (b) BQ2s were 3.79 (CI 2.59–5.55) times more likely to be selected than BQ4s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001); and, (c) BQ3s were 3.28 (CI 2.23–4.83) times more likely to be selected than BQ4s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001). The September to August and January to December BQ distributions as well as recreational participation values are displayed in Figure 1. The chi-square analysis compared to an expected equal BQ distribution are displayed in Table 1.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Table 1. Under-18 September to August and January to December BQ distributions and chi-square analysis.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;ephtml&gt; &amp;lt;table&amp;gt;&amp;lt;thead&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Selection cutoff&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ1&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ2&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ3&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ4&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Total&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;italic&amp;gt;&amp;amp;#967;&amp;lt;/italic&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;italic&amp;gt;p&amp;lt;/italic&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Cramer&#39;s V&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/thead&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tbody&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;September to August&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;111&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;40.2%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;58&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;21.0%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;58&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;21.0%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;49&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;17.8%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;276&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;34.87&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;&amp;amp;#60;0.001&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.25&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;January to December&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;241&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;36.2%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;202&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;30.4%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;173&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;26.0%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;49&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;7.4%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;665&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;124.263&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;&amp;amp;#60;0.001&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.31&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tbody&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/table&amp;gt; &lt;/ephtml&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Graph: Figure 1. Under-18 September to August, January to December, and recreational values BQ percentage distributions.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-8&quot;&gt;Discussion&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The aim of &lt;emph&gt;Study 1&lt;/emph&gt; was to explore the BQ distributions of the England RFU under-18s based on a September to August and January to December cutoff date. The key findings revealed a corresponding shift of a skewed birthdate distribution (favoring chronologically older players) that was mediated by both cutoff dates, which was independent of both national norms and recreational values. This pattern of results provides strong evidence for the existence of a RAE within the England RFU under-18s. Furthermore, these results replicate comparable findings established in previous soccer studies that have explored the consequences of changing the cutoff date (e.g., Helsen, Starkes, &amp;amp; van Winckel, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib29&quot; id=&quot;ref34&quot;&gt;29&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Musch &amp;amp; Hay, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib51&quot; id=&quot;ref35&quot;&gt;51&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Steingr&#246;ver, Wattie, Baker, Helsen, &amp;amp; Schorer, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib58&quot; id=&quot;ref36&quot;&gt;58&lt;/reflink&gt;]). This suggests coaches and practitioners continue to select significantly more players closer to the start of the cutoff date compared to their younger age-matched peers, regardless of the cutoff date that is used. This has the potential to affect a host of negative developmental outcomes, such as erroneously recruiting chronologically older players due to their advanced physical features, whilst perhaps missing out on chronologically younger players with greater long-term potential (Dimundo et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib20&quot; id=&quot;ref37&quot;&gt;20&lt;/reflink&gt;]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In light of these findings, it is important to consider the organizational systems that may influence what cutoff dates are applied to different types of competitions. Indeed, this problem is likely dependent on the sport type and playing level. From a national governing body perspective, during 1997, the Belgian Soccer Federation changed the start of their cutoff date from August 1st to January 1st. This shift prompted an investigation from Helsen and colleagues (2000) who explored the changes in the birthdate distributions throughout youth competitions for 1996–1997 compared to 1997–1998. Similar to the current study, their findings revealed a shift of RAE corresponded with the new cutoff dates. From an international governing body outlook, Steingr&#246;ver et al. ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib58&quot; id=&quot;ref38&quot;&gt;58&lt;/reflink&gt;]) explored the geographical variations in the interaction of RAEs in international youth soccer. Using the under-17 FIFA World Cup as an example, they suggested that due to the large amount of time that has passed since FIFA unified the cutoff dates in 1997, teams should no longer be affected by diverging cutoff dates that were formerly used in development systems (e.g., German soccer used August 1st before 1997; Cobley, Schorer, &amp;amp; Baker, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib12&quot; id=&quot;ref39&quot;&gt;12&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Unsurprisingly however, their findings revealed significant RAEs favoring relatively older players. As such, an international mandate on selection cutoff dates may be an unsuitable option for moderating the RAE.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the case of rugby union, the existing variation in selection cutoff dates based on national (e.g., England RFU) and international (e.g., World Rugby) regulations makes a mandate in common cutoff dates unfeasible. Whilst considering this as a potential option to ensure RAE solutions are universally employed, the task of organizing diverse school year and sport selection cutoff dates in a single country may prove problematic. Although development and performance are key determinants to sport participation, it is widely acknowledged that it is also based on other aspects, such as enjoyment, maintaining fitness, and socializing with peers (C&#244;t&#233;, Turnnidge, &amp;amp; Evans, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib16&quot; id=&quot;ref40&quot;&gt;16&lt;/reflink&gt;]). As an example, if young athletes are withdrawn from their same school-aged friends (e.g., September to August in England) due to different sport selection cutoff dates (e.g., January to December), there may be negative implications on participation and dropout of organized youth sport (C&#244;t&#233;, Strachan, &amp;amp; Fraser-Thomas, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib15&quot; id=&quot;ref41&quot;&gt;15&lt;/reflink&gt;]) and more specifically rugby (Campbell, Bracewell, Blackie, &amp;amp; Patel, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib10&quot; id=&quot;ref42&quot;&gt;10&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Thus, further research is required to explore the potential consequences of mandating a specific cutoff date throughout governing bodies since there could be profound sport-specific, cultural, and psychosocial implications.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In fact, varying the cutoff date may offer more positive outcomes since players do not remain universally disadvantaged from using a single selection time point (e.g., the &quot;relative age fair&quot; solution; Hurley, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib31&quot; id=&quot;ref43&quot;&gt;31&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Hurley, Lior, &amp;amp; Tracze, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib32&quot; id=&quot;ref44&quot;&gt;32&lt;/reflink&gt;]). For instance, a player who is born in October would be identified as a BQ4 with a December 31st cutoff date. In comparison, the same player would be identified as a BQ1 with an August 31st cutoff date. This hypothetical example offers two important implications. First, it is evident that being born as a BQ4 would significantly reduce the likelihood of them being selected. However, since there is a variation in cutoff dates, they now have a greater likelihood of being selected as a BQ1. Thus, the variation in cutoff dates may in fact act as a facilitating factor toward creating greater opportunities to a wider pool of talent at international level. Second, since playing across two cutoff dates may enable a shift between being relatively older and younger among one&#39;s peers, it may offer athletes more diverse developmental experiences along the talent pathway (Kelly, Jackson, et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib37&quot; id=&quot;ref45&quot;&gt;37&lt;/reflink&gt;] in press). Further, the increased diversity may extend beyond a players&#39; relative age within their peer group. For instance, players may also have increased opportunities to interact with different coaches, as well as engage in different types of activities. Thus, the consequences of changing the cutoff date may be more representative of a non-linear pathway during the player development process (C&#244;t&#233; et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib16&quot; id=&quot;ref46&quot;&gt;16&lt;/reflink&gt;]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-9&quot;&gt;Limitations and future directions&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;There are three important limitations for the reader to consider. First, this dataset consisted of players who were selected for fixtures based on two specific cutoff dates. However, since inclusion was established on fixture selection, players may have been included in the dataset on more than one occasion depending on the number of games they were selected for. Due to the nature of the data transfer between the organization and institution, it was impossible to eliminate any duplicates. Second, there were some fixtures that were not considered for this study due to both squads (Group 1 and Group 2) being selected for them. These particular fixtures were omitted since they did not represent a specific cutoff date, and the researchers were only concerned about comparing those with fixed selection time points. Finally, this case study focussed on one nation and considered each group as homogenous. However, since there are often cultural and position-specific differences amongst rugby union cohorts (e.g., Kearney, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib35&quot; id=&quot;ref47&quot;&gt;35&lt;/reflink&gt;]), it is important to reflect upon the external validity of this data. Thus, further national exploration and position-specific analysis is encouraged (e.g., Kearney, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib34&quot; id=&quot;ref48&quot;&gt;34&lt;/reflink&gt;]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Since there is a deep-rooted RAE throughout the under-18 selection process, alternative solutions for moderating the RAE should also be explored. Because physical development is highly correlated with age (e.g., Brewer, Balsom, &amp;amp; Davis, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib7&quot; id=&quot;ref49&quot;&gt;7&lt;/reflink&gt;]), twelve or 24 monthly bands may be too large to select squads. In the context of changing the cutoff date, six monthly age groups could be researched to reduce the age difference between the youngest and oldest players (Boucher &amp;amp; Halliwell, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib6&quot; id=&quot;ref50&quot;&gt;6&lt;/reflink&gt;]), as well as offering broader selection opportunities for those who are currently disadvantaged because of RAEs. Thus, it is suggested further research is required to explore the implications of utilizing alternative group banding strategies to moderate RAEs.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-10&quot;&gt;Study 2 – exploring youth to senior transitions&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The need for greater understanding of RAEs at the senior level is clear. For instance, compared to the traditional RAEs often observed at youth levels in rugby union (e.g., Delorme, Boich&#233;, &amp;amp; Raspaud, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib17&quot; id=&quot;ref51&quot;&gt;17&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Fernley, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib22&quot; id=&quot;ref52&quot;&gt;22&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Grobler, Shaw, &amp;amp; Coopoo, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib26&quot; id=&quot;ref53&quot;&gt;26&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Lewis et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib42&quot; id=&quot;ref54&quot;&gt;42&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Musch &amp;amp; Grondin, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib50&quot; id=&quot;ref55&quot;&gt;50&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Roberts &amp;amp; Fairclough, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib54&quot; id=&quot;ref56&quot;&gt;54&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Simons &amp;amp; Adams, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib56&quot; id=&quot;ref57&quot;&gt;56&lt;/reflink&gt;]), &lt;emph&gt;reversal effects&lt;/emph&gt; of relative age have been illustrated at adulthood. For instance, McCarthy and colleagues (McCarthy &amp;amp; Collins, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib47&quot; id=&quot;ref58&quot;&gt;47&lt;/reflink&gt;]; McCarthy et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib46&quot; id=&quot;ref59&quot;&gt;46&lt;/reflink&gt;]) revealed that, despite a RAE bias at the academy level, there was a greater percentage of players successfully converting to senior levels from BQ3 and BQ4 compared to BQ1 and BQ2.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Jones, Lawrence, and Hardy ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib33&quot; id=&quot;ref60&quot;&gt;33&lt;/reflink&gt;]) used fourteen criteria, based of international caps and performance, to examine RAEs in &quot;super-elite&quot; rugby union players from the top ten ranked countries. Once all positions were combined, BQ1s were significantly underrepresented in twelve out of 14 criteria, whereas BQ4s were overrepresented in eight out of 14 criteria (although this was not statistically significant). Jones et al. ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib33&quot; id=&quot;ref61&quot;&gt;33&lt;/reflink&gt;]) suggested these late birthday benefits may be due to &quot;survival of the fittest&quot; concepts (e.g., Gibbs, Jarvis, &amp;amp; Dufur, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib24&quot; id=&quot;ref62&quot;&gt;24&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Kelly, Wilson, et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib40&quot; id=&quot;ref63&quot;&gt;40&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Till et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib60&quot; id=&quot;ref64&quot;&gt;60&lt;/reflink&gt;]). This highlights the importance combining both youth and senior representatives together when examining RAEs within a sporting system. This type of approach will offer stakeholders greater knowledge of the long-term implications of RAEs within a single pathway. In addition, researchers and practitioners may better understand the transition from youth to senior level, as well as the developmental trajectories and career opportunities of youth players in respective player pathways.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The aim of &lt;emph&gt;Study 2&lt;/emph&gt; was to compare the BQ distributions within the England international representative pathway, through analyzing the RFU under-18, under-20, and senior cohorts, as well as comparing the BQ distributions of international youth players who were subsequently capped at the international senior level to explore the youth to senior transitions.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-11&quot;&gt;Methods&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-12&quot;&gt;Sample and procedure&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The RFU under-18 (&lt;emph&gt;n&lt;/emph&gt; = 457), under-20 (&lt;emph&gt;n&lt;/emph&gt; = 330), and senior representatives (&lt;emph&gt;n&lt;/emph&gt; = 189) who played for England, across twelve years (2008–2019[&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib4&quot; id=&quot;ref65&quot;&gt;4&lt;/reflink&gt;]), participated in this study. In-line with the World Rugby competition regulations, selections were based on a January to December cutoff date. As such, January was classified as &lt;emph&gt;month 1&lt;/emph&gt; and December &lt;emph&gt;month 12&lt;/emph&gt;. Each player was subsequently assigned to a BQ based on their date of birth. These were then compared to the expected distribution of an assumed equal number of players in each BQ at each playing level (under-18, under-20, and senior). In addition, to explore the transition from youth to senior level, further analysis compared the capped under-18 (&lt;emph&gt;n&lt;/emph&gt; = 43) and capped under-20 (&lt;emph&gt;n&lt;/emph&gt; = 44) representatives (e.g., achieved a minimum of one senior international cap) against the observed under-18 and under-20 BQ distributions, respectively. The study received institutional ethics approval from both England RFU and Birmingham City University.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-13&quot;&gt;Data analysis&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;Using the same data analysis methods as &lt;emph&gt;Study 1&lt;/emph&gt;, chi-square analysis was used to compare the observed BQ distributions against the expected BQ distributions based on an assumed equal number of players in each BQ (Schorer et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib55&quot; id=&quot;ref66&quot;&gt;55&lt;/reflink&gt;]) and age-grade norms from recreational participation values (Kelly et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib36&quot; id=&quot;ref67&quot;&gt;36&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Cramer&#39;s V, ORs, and CIs were also reported. Results were considered statistically significant when &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; &amp;lt; 0.05.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-14&quot;&gt;Results&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The under-18 BQ distribution was significantly skewed, with a small effect size, when compared to expected equal BQ distribution (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 10.247, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.017, &lt;emph&gt;V&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.11). The only significant OR for the under-18 cohort revealed BQ1s were 1.46 (CI 1.01–2.1) times more likely to be selected than BQ2s (&lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.042). The under-20 BQ distribution was significantly skewed, with a small effect size, when compared to expected equal BQ distribution (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 8.206 &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.042, &lt;emph&gt;V&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.11). No significant ORs were reported for the under-20 cohort. The senior distribution was not significantly skewed when compared to expected equal BQ distribution (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 3.317, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.345). The under-18, under-20, and senior BQ distributions alongside the chi-square analysis compared to an expected equal BQ distribution are displayed in Table 2 and Figure 2. When compared to the age-grade norms based on recreational participation values, the under-18 (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 4.429, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.24), under-20 (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 4.666, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.19), and senior (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 4.861 &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.18) BQ distributions were not significantly skewed.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Table 2. Under-18, under-20, and senior BQ distributions and chi-square analysis.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;ephtml&gt; &amp;lt;table&amp;gt;&amp;lt;thead&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;RFU cohort&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ1&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ2&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ3&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ4&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Total&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;italic&amp;gt;&amp;amp;#967;&amp;lt;/italic&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;italic&amp;gt;p&amp;lt;/italic&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Cramer&#39;s V&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/thead&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tbody&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Under-18&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;143&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;31.3%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;98&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;21.4%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;107&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;23.4%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;109&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;23.9%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;457&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;10.247&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.017&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.11&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Under-20&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;95&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;28.8%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;96&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;29.1%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;69&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;20.9%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;70&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;21.2%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;330&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;8.206&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.042&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.11&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Senior&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;41&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;21.7%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;54&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;28.6%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;53&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;28.0%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;41&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;21.7%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;189&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;3.317&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.345&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.09&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tbody&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/table&amp;gt; &lt;/ephtml&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Graph: Figure 2. Under-18, under-20, and senior BQ percentage distributions.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Further analysis revealed the capped under-18 BQ distribution was not significantly skewed when compared with the observed under-18 BQ distribution (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 6.775, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.079). The capped under-20 BQ distribution was not significantly skewed when compared with the observed under-20 BQ distribution (χ&lt;sups&gt;2&lt;/sups&gt; (df = 3) = 1.483, &lt;emph&gt;p&lt;/emph&gt; = 0.687). The capped under-18 and capped under-20 distributions alongside the chi-square analysis are displayed in Table 3 and Figure 3.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Table 3. Capped under-18 and capped under-20 BQ distributions and chi-square analysis.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;ephtml&gt; &amp;lt;table&amp;gt;&amp;lt;thead&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;RFU cohort&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ1&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ2&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ3&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;BQ4&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Total&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;italic&amp;gt;&amp;amp;#967;&amp;lt;/italic&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;italic&amp;gt;p&amp;lt;/italic&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Cramer&#39;s V&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/thead&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tbody&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Under-18 capped&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;16&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;37.2%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;14&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;32.6%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;9.3%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;9&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;20.9%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;43&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;6.775&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.079&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.28&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;Under-20 capped&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;10&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;22.7%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;15&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;34.1%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;11&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;25.0%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;8&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;18.2%&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;44&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;1.483&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.687&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;0.13&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tbody&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/table&amp;gt; &lt;/ephtml&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Graph: Figure 3. Capped under-18 and capped under-20 BQ percentage distributions against respective cohorts.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-15&quot;&gt;Discussion&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The aim of &lt;emph&gt;Study 2&lt;/emph&gt; was to examine the BQ distributions of the England RFU under-18, under-20, and senior cohorts. Results noted a significantly skewed BQ distribution amongst the under-18 and under-20 cohorts favoring chronologically older players. Interestingly however, there was no RAE in the senior cohort or when youth cohorts were compared to recreational values. Further analysis explored the youth to senior transitions through analyzing the BQ distributions of the international youth players who were subsequently capped at international senior level. Findings revealed the capped under-18 and capped under-20 BQ distributions were not significantly skewed when compared with the BQ distribution observed in the under-18 and under-20 cohorts, respectively. This suggests the number of youth players who are making the successful transition to senior level are representative of the BQ distributions at international youth level. As a result, more chronologically older players are making the successful transition from youth to senior level compared to their younger age-matched peers. However, the even distribution in the senior cohort suggests more chronologically younger players are achieving senior status without being selected at international youth level when compared to their older age-matched peers.[&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib5&quot; id=&quot;ref68&quot;&gt;5&lt;/reflink&gt;]&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;These results also provide further evidence for the existence of a RAE within rugby union through replicating similar findings established in previous studies (e.g., Kelly et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib38&quot; id=&quot;ref69&quot;&gt;38&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Lewis et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib42&quot; id=&quot;ref70&quot;&gt;42&lt;/reflink&gt;]; McCarthy &amp;amp; Collins, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib47&quot; id=&quot;ref71&quot;&gt;47&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Roberts &amp;amp; Fairclough, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib54&quot; id=&quot;ref72&quot;&gt;54&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Interestingly, when exploring the differences between BQ1 vs. BQ4 and playing level in male youth rugby union, the current findings (under-18: BQ1 = 31% vs. BQ4 = 24%; under-20: BQ1 = 29% vs. BQ4 = 21%) appear to be more resonant of recreational RAEs (BQ1 = 29% vs. BQ4 = 23%; Lewis et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib42&quot; id=&quot;ref73&quot;&gt;42&lt;/reflink&gt;]). This is compared to the regional representatives (BQ1 = 46% vs. BQ4 = 14%; Roberts &amp;amp; Fairclough, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib54&quot; id=&quot;ref74&quot;&gt;54&lt;/reflink&gt;]) and professional academy (BQ1 = 48% vs. BQ4 = 8%; McCarthy &amp;amp; Collins, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib47&quot; id=&quot;ref75&quot;&gt;47&lt;/reflink&gt;]) RAEs, where a greater importance is usually placed on talent selection compared to recreational participation. As such, these current findings are contrary to previous suggestions that increased playing level in youth cohorts often coincides with a stronger RAE (Cobley, Baker, Wattie, &amp;amp; McKenna, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib13&quot; id=&quot;ref76&quot;&gt;13&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Smith, Weir, Till, Romann, &amp;amp; Cobley, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib57&quot; id=&quot;ref77&quot;&gt;57&lt;/reflink&gt;]). This may be due to the education and understanding of the RAE amongst international coaches within the RFU, which can play a pivotal role in reducing RAEs (Webdale, Baker, Schorer, &amp;amp; Wattie, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib64&quot; id=&quot;ref78&quot;&gt;64&lt;/reflink&gt;]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Contrary to what has been found in youth cohorts, a 50% divide between the first and second half of the selection year in the senior cohort was apparent. Moreover, since the current study comprised all players who have been selected over the last twelve years, it provides strong evidence against RAEs at the international senior level in the RFU. The shift of RAEs at youth level but not at senior level follows a similar trend identified in professional soccer (Gonzalez-Villora, Pastor-Vicedo, &amp;amp; Cordente, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib25&quot; id=&quot;ref79&quot;&gt;25&lt;/reflink&gt;]). The findings amongst the senior cohort also appear to replicate those found in previous studies in rugby union (e.g., Kearney, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib34&quot; id=&quot;ref80&quot;&gt;34&lt;/reflink&gt;], [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib35&quot; id=&quot;ref81&quot;&gt;35&lt;/reflink&gt;]). For instance, Kearney ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib35&quot; id=&quot;ref82&quot;&gt;35&lt;/reflink&gt;]) adopted a cross-cultural comparison as part of their methodology when exploring RAEs throughout four nations (Australia, England, New Zealand, South Africa). They illustrated that South Africa was the only country to have a pronounced RAE across all playing positions at the senior level. This suggests differences in national sport culture are an important consideration whilst exploring who is at risk of RAEs.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There appears to be a complicated relationship between selection at youth levels (e.g., under-18 and under-20), successful transitions from youth to senior level (e.g., capped under-18 and capped under-20), and selection at senior level. Since the capped under-18 and capped under-20 BQ distributions were representative of the skewed under-18 and under-20 BQ distributions, there appears to be a &quot;knock on effect&quot; of the RAE during the youth to senior transitions (e.g., capped under-18: BQ1 = 37% vs. BQ4 = 20%; capped under-20 BQ1 = 22% vs. BQ4 = 18%). Indeed, this becomes less prevalent within the under-20 compared to the under-18 (e.g., no ORs identified in the under-20 cohort), suggesting earlier selection may be more misleading for predicting future potential (Furley &amp;amp; Memmert, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib23&quot; id=&quot;ref83&quot;&gt;23&lt;/reflink&gt;]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;These findings also correspond to previous research that suggests RAEs affect the beginning of senior international careers (e.g., Brustio et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib8&quot; id=&quot;ref84&quot;&gt;8&lt;/reflink&gt;], [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib9&quot; id=&quot;ref85&quot;&gt;9&lt;/reflink&gt;]; L&#243;pez de Subijana &amp;amp; Lorenzo, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib43&quot; id=&quot;ref86&quot;&gt;43&lt;/reflink&gt;]; Rađa, Padulo, Jelaska, Ardig&#242;, &amp;amp; Fumarco, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib53&quot; id=&quot;ref87&quot;&gt;53&lt;/reflink&gt;]). For instance, Lupo et al. ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib44&quot; id=&quot;ref88&quot;&gt;44&lt;/reflink&gt;]) revealed players born close to the start of the cutoff date were 1.57, 1.34, 2.69, 1.48, and 1.45 times more likely to reach first and second Italian division of basketball, rugby, soccer, volleyball, and water polo, respectively, compared to those born toward the end of the cutoff date. Together, these findings reject the potential suggestion of a reversal effect of relative age during the international youth to senior level transition, which has been previously documented during the academy to professional level transition in rugby union (McCarthy &amp;amp; Collins, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib47&quot; id=&quot;ref89&quot;&gt;47&lt;/reflink&gt;]; McCarthy et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib46&quot; id=&quot;ref90&quot;&gt;46&lt;/reflink&gt;]). It is also important to consider the contextual and methodological variations between these McCarthy and Collins ([&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib47&quot; id=&quot;ref91&quot;&gt;47&lt;/reflink&gt;], [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib46&quot; id=&quot;ref92&quot;&gt;46&lt;/reflink&gt;]) results, with the current study including a higher playing level, larger sample size, and further longitudinal data.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It is important to recognize that the existing age group structures may result in prospective international players who are chronologically younger losing access to high-performance coaching and competition at youth level (M&#252;ller, Hildebrandt, &amp;amp; Raschner, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib49&quot; id=&quot;ref93&quot;&gt;49&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Therefore, since the purpose of an international pathway should be to identify and then develop young rugby union players toward the senior level, attention should rather concentrate on those characteristics to manage the course of development rather than focussing on current performance abilities (Abbott &amp;amp; Collins, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib1&quot; id=&quot;ref94&quot;&gt;1&lt;/reflink&gt;]). As such, coaches and practitioners should act with caution during the selection process at youth level to ensure they are recruiting those with the characteristics to withstand the long-term development process.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Since there were no significant RAEs when compared to the English recreational values (i.e., Kelly et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib36&quot; id=&quot;ref95&quot;&gt;36&lt;/reflink&gt;]), it is plausible to suggest that the annual-age grouping structures at age-grade levels may be the root cause of the significant RAEs at international levels when compared to an assumed equal number of players in each BQ (Schorer et al., [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib55&quot; id=&quot;ref96&quot;&gt;55&lt;/reflink&gt;]). To be specific, if there are already RAEs in age-grade rugby union across youth age groups as young as aged 6 years, it is inevitably going to have a knock-on effect on the long-term participation and performance developmental outcomes toward international youth levels. Therefore, in order to widen the pool of potential talent and moderate RAEs at &quot;elite&quot; youth levels, organizational structures at recreational levels should consider their existing approaches to capture more relatively younger players. Moreover, perhaps these results are also directly linked to the double cutoff dates outlined in &lt;emph&gt;Study 1&lt;/emph&gt;, whereby September to August and January to December are used for international youth games, thus offering a broader range of BQs to be selected into the RFU national talent development pathway. Specifically, using both cutoff dates at the same time could &quot;neutralise&quot; or reduce RAEs and maybe explain these findings. However, further research is required to substantiate these suggestions, as well as to help better understand the significant difference compared to an assumed equal BQ distribution and insignificant difference compared to the recreational participation BQ distribution.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-16&quot;&gt;Limitations and future directions&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The limitations proposed in &lt;emph&gt;Study 1&lt;/emph&gt; concerning external validity due to cultural diversity, as well as position-specific differences, should also be considered in this study (e.g., Kearney, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib34&quot; id=&quot;ref97&quot;&gt;34&lt;/reflink&gt;], [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib35&quot; id=&quot;ref98&quot;&gt;35&lt;/reflink&gt;]). An additional consideration of this current study is that it included all players who have represented the England RFU at under-18 and under-20 over the last twelve years. As such, those who have more recently represented England at under-18 and under-20 level would be too young to be considered for the transition data due to their age. Further, using selection for a minimum of one fixture as a proxy indicator for international representation may be misleading since it may not provide an accurate reflection of the more complex outcomes of the youth to senior transitions. Lastly, it is important to highlight the small sample applied to this study. However, it is important to recognize that small samples are readily acknowledged as a limiting factor when exploring high-performance sport due to the unique nature of the sample (McAuley, Baker, &amp;amp; Kelly, [&lt;reflink idref=&quot;bib45&quot; id=&quot;ref99&quot;&gt;45&lt;/reflink&gt;]). Thus, this current study provides an important addition to the youth to senior transition literature, while offering the opening to be developed further through research synthesis approaches.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Future RAE research is encouraged to include both youth and senior cohorts as part of their methodology to ensure the mechanisms of the youth to senior transition is fully understood. For instance, despite the plethora of research illustrating RAEs at youth level, there appears to be mixed understanding of the outcomes of the RAE; since current research has shown a continued RAE, no RAE, and a reversal effect of RAE at senior level. Thus, sport type, playing level, gender, and sociocultural factors may all play an important part in recognizing the long-term impact of the RAE at youth level.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-17&quot;&gt;Conclusion&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;The pattern of results from &lt;emph&gt;Study 1&lt;/emph&gt; and &lt;emph&gt;Study 2&lt;/emph&gt; provides strong evidence for the cutoff date in youth rugby union as the main cause for the RAE. This RAE appears to be prominent throughout the international youth pathway and is representative of the number of players who are graduating through achieving senior international status. However, since the senior international BQ distribution is evenly poised, there is logically a greater number of chronologically younger players who are not being selected at youth international level, but achieve senior international status regardless. As such, chronological age grouping could be unintentionally offering those born closer to the start of the selection year more opportunities to progress through the youth ranks compared to their younger age-match peer. Thus, it is important that key stakeholders working in rugby union recognize the implications of grouping athletes with fixed chronological age groups. Further research exploring alternative grouping strategies is suggested to ensure the England RFU international pathway is recruiting those with the most &lt;emph&gt;potential&lt;/emph&gt; to achieve senior international status. From a practical perspective, it is important to relay these findings to key stakeholders in rugby union. For instance, the dissemination of these results could be incorporated into coach education (e.g., mandatory coaching courses) and continual professional development opportunities (e.g., staff meetings). As such, this may prove fruitful in developing practical knowledge translation of RAEs in rugby union.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hd id=&quot;AN0163552898-18&quot;&gt;Disclosure statement&lt;/hd&gt; &lt;p&gt;No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;ref id=&quot;AN0163552898-19&quot;&gt; &lt;title&gt; Notes &lt;/title&gt; &lt;blist&gt; &lt;bibl id=&quot;bib1&quot; idref=&quot;ref25&quot; type=&quot;bt&quot;&gt;1&lt;/bibl&gt; &lt;bibtext&gt; Selection for both the September to August and January to December fixtures were generally carried out with a weighting toward the September to August fixtures being made of up players who were perceived to be stronger compared to those in the January to December fixtures. This was due to the September to August fixtures being selected from players across one whole English academic year. Although this policy is a generalization, it is important to consider that this did factor into the selection process.&lt;/bibtext&gt; &lt;/blist&gt; &lt;blist&gt; &lt;bibl id=&quot;bib2&quot; idref=&quot;ref7&quot; type=&quot;bt&quot;&gt;2&lt;/bibl&gt; &lt;bibtext&gt; A fixture is defined as a competitive match that has taken place between two nations.&lt;/bibtext&gt; &lt;/blist&gt; &lt;blist&gt; &lt;bibl id=&quot;bib3&quot; idref=&quot;ref11&quot; type=&quot;bt&quot;&gt;3&lt;/bibl&gt; &lt;bibtext&gt; The year 2008 was when the RFU started recording this data; therefore, this dataset includes all the information that was available during analysis.&lt;/bibtext&gt; &lt;/blist&gt; &lt;blist&gt; &lt;bibl id=&quot;bib4&quot; idref=&quot;ref2&quot; type=&quot;bt&quot;&gt;4&lt;/bibl&gt; &lt;bibtext&gt; The year 2008 was when the RFU started recording this data; therefore, this dataset includes all the information that was available during analysis.&lt;/bibtext&gt; &lt;/blist&gt; &lt;blist&gt; &lt;bibl id=&quot;bib5&quot; idref=&quot;ref1&quot; type=&quot;bt&quot;&gt;5&lt;/bibl&gt; &lt;bibtext&gt; It is important to note that recent data from the RFU shows how 77% of the 2019 Rugby World Cup squad represented England at under-18 level, whilst 81% represented England at under-20 level. 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  Data: Relative Age Effects in International Rugby Union: Consequences of Changing the Cutoff Date and Exploring Youth to Senior Transitions
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Kelly%2C+Adam+L%2E%22&quot;&gt;Kelly, Adam L.&lt;/searchLink&gt; (ORCID &lt;externalLink term=&quot;http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4929-1067&quot;&gt;0000-0003-4929-1067&lt;/externalLink&gt;)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Jackson%2C+Daniel+T%2E%22&quot;&gt;Jackson, Daniel T.&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Barrell%2C+Donald%22&quot;&gt;Barrell, Donald&lt;/searchLink&gt; (ORCID &lt;externalLink term=&quot;http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9174-1418&quot;&gt;0000-0001-9174-1418&lt;/externalLink&gt;)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Burke%2C+Kate%22&quot;&gt;Burke, Kate&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Baker%2C+Joseph%22&quot;&gt;Baker, Joseph&lt;/searchLink&gt; (ORCID &lt;externalLink term=&quot;http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5686-1737&quot;&gt;0000-0002-5686-1737&lt;/externalLink&gt;)
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;SO&quot; term=&quot;%22High+Ability+Studies%22&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;High Ability Studies&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/searchLink&gt;. 2023 34(1):1-20.
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  Data: Routledge. Available from: Taylor &amp; Francis, Ltd. 530 Walnut Street Suite 850, Philadelphia, PA 19106. Tel: 800-354-1420; Tel: 215-625-8900; Fax: 215-207-0050; Web site: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
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  Data: 20
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  Data: 2023
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  Data: Journal Articles&lt;br /&gt;Reports - Research
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Foreign+Countries%22&quot;&gt;Foreign Countries&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Team+Sports%22&quot;&gt;Team Sports&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Athletes%22&quot;&gt;Athletes&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Age%22&quot;&gt;Age&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Talent+Identification%22&quot;&gt;Talent Identification&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Talent+Development%22&quot;&gt;Talent Development&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Selection+Criteria%22&quot;&gt;Selection Criteria&lt;/searchLink&gt;
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  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22United+Kingdom%22&quot;&gt;United Kingdom&lt;/searchLink&gt;
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  Data: 10.1080/13598139.2021.1997722
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  Data: 1359-8139&lt;br /&gt;1469-834X
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Relative age effects (RAEs) are independent of specific cutoff dates that can vary from country to country. However, the consequences of changing the selection cutoff dates within a national sport organization are unknown. Further, the transition from international youth to senior representation is yet to be explored in rugby union. Thus, the aims of this article were twofold: &quot;Study 1&quot; compared the birth quarter (BQ) distributions of the England Rugby Football Union (RFU) under-18 representatives based on September to August and January to December selection cutoff dates. &quot;Study 2&quot; explored the BQ distributions within the RFU international development pathway through analyzing the under-18, under-20, and senior representatives, as well as the BQ distributions of youth players who were subsequently capped at senior level. Chi-square analysis was used to compare BQ distributions in each sample against expected distributions. Results revealed a corresponding shift of a skewed birthdate distribution favoring chronologically older players that was mediated by specific cutoff dates (p &lt; 0.05). Moreover, whilst RAEs were present within both youth cohorts (p &lt; 0.05), it was not apparent at the senior level (p &gt; 0.05). Furthermore, during the transition from international youth to senior representation, more chronologically older players were successfully capped.
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  Data: 2023
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  Data: EJ1387974
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        Value: 10.1080/13598139.2021.1997722
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 20
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Foreign Countries
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Team Sports
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Athletes
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Age
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Talent Identification
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      – SubjectFull: Talent Development
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Selection Criteria
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United Kingdom
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Relative Age Effects in International Rugby Union: Consequences of Changing the Cutoff Date and Exploring Youth to Senior Transitions
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