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What Are the Odds? Preschoolers' Ability to Distinguish between Possible, Impossible, and Probabilistically Distinct Future Outcomes

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Title: What Are the Odds? Preschoolers' Ability to Distinguish between Possible, Impossible, and Probabilistically Distinct Future Outcomes
Language: English
Authors: Crimston, Jessica (ORCID 0000-0003-2093-601X), Redshaw, Jonathan, Suddendorf, Thomas
Source: Developmental Psychology. Oct 2023 59(10):1881-1891.
Availability: American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: order@apa.org; Web site: http://www.apa.org
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 11
Publication Date: 2023
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: Preschool Children, Thinking Skills, Intuition, Discrimination Learning, Probability, Decision Making Skills, Foreign Countries, Performance, Prediction
Geographic Terms: Australia
DOI: 10.1037/dev0001587
ISSN: 0012-1649
1939-0599
Abstract: Previous research has suggested that infants are able to distinguish between possible and impossible events and make basic probabilistic inferences. However, much of this research has focused on children's intuitions about past events for which the outcome is already determined but unknown. Here, we investigated children's ability to use probabilistic information to guide their choices and actively shape future events. In two experiments, we examined whether children could successfully direct a marble through a series of tubes, selecting between routes where success was possible, impossible, or guaranteed (i.e., 50% vs. 0%, or 50% vs. 100%; Experiment 1), and routes where success was mutually possible but probabilistically distinct (e.g., 33% vs. 50%; Experiment 2). In total, we tested 136 two- to five-year-old children (76 males), recruited predominantly through a museum in Brisbane, Australia. In Experiment 1, we found that while younger children typically did not perform above chance, the vast majority of 4- and 5-year-olds consistently distinguished between possible and impossible or guaranteed outcomes. In Experiment 2, children of all ages had greater difficulty with distinguishing between two possible outcomes with different likelihoods than between possible and impossible/guaranteed outcomes, although some individual 4- and 5-year-olds demonstrated competence when making both distinctions.
Abstractor: As Provided
Notes: https://osf.io/x8as4/?view_only=642d869148a84373b13343c3eddb3a9b
Entry Date: 2023
Accession Number: EJ1394857
Database: ERIC
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  Data: What Are the Odds? Preschoolers' Ability to Distinguish between Possible, Impossible, and Probabilistically Distinct Future Outcomes
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Crimston%2C+Jessica%22">Crimston, Jessica</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2093-601X">0000-0003-2093-601X</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Redshaw%2C+Jonathan%22">Redshaw, Jonathan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Suddendorf%2C+Thomas%22">Suddendorf, Thomas</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Developmental+Psychology%22"><i>Developmental Psychology</i></searchLink>. Oct 2023 59(10):1881-1891.
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  Data: American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: order@apa.org; Web site: http://www.apa.org
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  Data: 11
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  Data: Journal Articles<br />Reports - Research
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Preschool+Children%22">Preschool Children</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thinking+Skills%22">Thinking Skills</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Intuition%22">Intuition</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Discrimination+Learning%22">Discrimination Learning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Probability%22">Probability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Decision+Making+Skills%22">Decision Making Skills</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Foreign+Countries%22">Foreign Countries</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Performance%22">Performance</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prediction%22">Prediction</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Australia%22">Australia</searchLink>
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  Data: 10.1037/dev0001587
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  Data: Previous research has suggested that infants are able to distinguish between possible and impossible events and make basic probabilistic inferences. However, much of this research has focused on children's intuitions about past events for which the outcome is already determined but unknown. Here, we investigated children's ability to use probabilistic information to guide their choices and actively shape future events. In two experiments, we examined whether children could successfully direct a marble through a series of tubes, selecting between routes where success was possible, impossible, or guaranteed (i.e., 50% vs. 0%, or 50% vs. 100%; Experiment 1), and routes where success was mutually possible but probabilistically distinct (e.g., 33% vs. 50%; Experiment 2). In total, we tested 136 two- to five-year-old children (76 males), recruited predominantly through a museum in Brisbane, Australia. In Experiment 1, we found that while younger children typically did not perform above chance, the vast majority of 4- and 5-year-olds consistently distinguished between possible and impossible or guaranteed outcomes. In Experiment 2, children of all ages had greater difficulty with distinguishing between two possible outcomes with different likelihoods than between possible and impossible/guaranteed outcomes, although some individual 4- and 5-year-olds demonstrated competence when making both distinctions.
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  Data: https://osf.io/x8as4/?view_only=642d869148a84373b13343c3eddb3a9b
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  Data: 2023
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      – Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 11
        StartPage: 1881
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Preschool Children
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Thinking Skills
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Intuition
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Discrimination Learning
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      – SubjectFull: Probability
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      – SubjectFull: Decision Making Skills
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      – SubjectFull: Foreign Countries
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      – SubjectFull: Performance
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Prediction
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Australia
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: What Are the Odds? Preschoolers' Ability to Distinguish between Possible, Impossible, and Probabilistically Distinct Future Outcomes
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