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Are Students on Track? Comparing the Predictive Validity of Administrative and Survey Measures of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills for Long-Term Outcomes

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Title: Are Students on Track? Comparing the Predictive Validity of Administrative and Survey Measures of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills for Long-Term Outcomes
Language: English
Authors: Christopher Cleveland (ORCID 0000-0002-8619-6088), Ethan Scherer (ORCID 0000-0002-6548-7724)
Source: Educational Researcher. 2025 54(4):213-225.
Availability: SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 13
Publication Date: 2025
Sponsoring Agency: Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Contract Number: R305B150010
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Education Level: Junior High Schools
Middle Schools
Secondary Education
Elementary Education
Grade 8
Higher Education
Postsecondary Education
Descriptors: Middle School Students, Grade 8, Student Surveys, Self Evaluation (Individuals), Predictive Validity, Thinking Skills, Soft Skills, Long Term Memory, Graduation Rate, Cognitive Development, Longitudinal Studies, College Enrollment, Time to Degree, Academic Persistence, Strategic Planning, Educational Policy
DOI: 10.3102/0013189X251321422
ISSN: 0013-189X
1935-102X
Abstract: Education leaders need valid metrics to predict students' long-term success. We use a unique data set with cognitive skills, self-regulation, behavior, course performance, and test scores for eighth-grade students from a Northeast school district. We link these data to students' high school outcomes, college enrollment, persistence, and on-time degree completion. Survey-based cognitive and self-regulation measures predict high school and college outcomes. However, these relationships become small and lose statistical significance when test scores, grade point average, and an absences-suspensions index are included in the predictive models. For leaders hoping to identify the best on-track indicators for college completion, the information collected in student longitudinal data systems better predicts both short- and long-term educational outcomes than the survey-based self-regulation and cognitive measures.
Abstractor: As Provided
IES Funded: Yes
Entry Date: 2025
Accession Number: EJ1468379
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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IllustrationInfo
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  Data: Are Students on Track? Comparing the Predictive Validity of Administrative and Survey Measures of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills for Long-Term Outcomes
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Christopher+Cleveland%22">Christopher Cleveland</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8619-6088">0000-0002-8619-6088</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ethan+Scherer%22">Ethan Scherer</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6548-7724">0000-0002-6548-7724</externalLink>)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Educational+Researcher%22"><i>Educational Researcher</i></searchLink>. 2025 54(4):213-225.
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  Data: SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
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  Label: Peer Reviewed
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  Data: Y
– Name: Pages
  Label: Page Count
  Group: Src
  Data: 13
– Name: DatePubCY
  Label: Publication Date
  Group: Date
  Data: 2025
– Name: SourceSuprt
  Label: Sponsoring Agency
  Group: SrcSuprt
  Data: Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
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  Data: R305B150010
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  Data: Journal Articles<br />Reports - Research
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Junior+High+Schools%22">Junior High Schools</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Middle+Schools%22">Middle Schools</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Secondary+Education%22">Secondary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Elementary+Education%22">Elementary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Grade+8%22">Grade 8</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Higher+Education%22">Higher Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Postsecondary+Education%22">Postsecondary Education</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Middle+School+Students%22">Middle School Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grade+8%22">Grade 8</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Student+Surveys%22">Student Surveys</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Self+Evaluation+%28Individuals%29%22">Self Evaluation (Individuals)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Predictive+Validity%22">Predictive Validity</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thinking+Skills%22">Thinking Skills</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Soft+Skills%22">Soft Skills</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Long+Term+Memory%22">Long Term Memory</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Graduation+Rate%22">Graduation Rate</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cognitive+Development%22">Cognitive Development</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Longitudinal+Studies%22">Longitudinal Studies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22College+Enrollment%22">College Enrollment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Time+to+Degree%22">Time to Degree</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Academic+Persistence%22">Academic Persistence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Strategic+Planning%22">Strategic Planning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Policy%22">Educational Policy</searchLink>
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  Data: 10.3102/0013189X251321422
– Name: ISSN
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  Data: 0013-189X<br />1935-102X
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Education leaders need valid metrics to predict students' long-term success. We use a unique data set with cognitive skills, self-regulation, behavior, course performance, and test scores for eighth-grade students from a Northeast school district. We link these data to students' high school outcomes, college enrollment, persistence, and on-time degree completion. Survey-based cognitive and self-regulation measures predict high school and college outcomes. However, these relationships become small and lose statistical significance when test scores, grade point average, and an absences-suspensions index are included in the predictive models. For leaders hoping to identify the best on-track indicators for college completion, the information collected in student longitudinal data systems better predicts both short- and long-term educational outcomes than the survey-based self-regulation and cognitive measures.
– Name: AbstractInfo
  Label: Abstractor
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  Data: As Provided
– Name: CodeSource
  Label: IES Funded
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  Data: Yes
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  Label: Entry Date
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  Data: 2025
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  Data: EJ1468379
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.3102/0013189X251321422
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 13
        StartPage: 213
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Middle School Students
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Grade 8
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Student Surveys
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Self Evaluation (Individuals)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Predictive Validity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Thinking Skills
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Soft Skills
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Long Term Memory
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Graduation Rate
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cognitive Development
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Longitudinal Studies
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: College Enrollment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Time to Degree
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      – SubjectFull: Academic Persistence
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Strategic Planning
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational Policy
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Are Students on Track? Comparing the Predictive Validity of Administrative and Survey Measures of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills for Long-Term Outcomes
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            NameFull: Christopher Cleveland
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            NameFull: Ethan Scherer
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              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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              Value: 54
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            – TitleFull: Educational Researcher
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