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Unskilled but Aware of It: Understanding Self-Assessment by Estimating Guessing from Cognitive-Metacognitive Paired Measures

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Title: Unskilled but Aware of It: Understanding Self-Assessment by Estimating Guessing from Cognitive-Metacognitive Paired Measures
Language: English
Authors: Edward Nuhfer, Steven Fleisher
Source: Numeracy. 2026 19(1).
Availability: National Numeracy Network. 906 West 2nd Avenue, Suite 100, Spokane, WA 99201. Tel: 507-222-5239; Web site: https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 43
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Postsecondary Education
Descriptors: Self Evaluation (Individuals), Guessing (Tests), Numeracy, Computation, Cognitive Tests, College Students, College Faculty, Scores, Multiple Choice Tests
ISSN: 1936-4660
Abstract: We utilize concepts of numeracy including number sense, reading and interpreting graphs, basic probability and statistics, and reasoning to estimate guessing and verify our earlier findings on human self-assessment as replicable. Our field study employed a low-stakes paired measures assessment (11,229 scores from the validated Science Literacy Concept Inventory and postdicted global self-assessment ratings generated upon completion of the Inventory) in conjunction with a five-category taxonomy of self-assessment proficiency. We also simulated 11,229 random guessing responses, to model responses that disengaged, purely random-guessing participants should produce. At least 90% of participants sincerely engaged with the instruments of measure, self-assessed imperfectly but reasonably well, and exhibited equal tendencies to underestimate or overestimate their scores by modest amounts. Results contradict the prevalent claim that most people overestimate their actual abilities, with the least knowledgeable being grossly overconfident (ie, the Dunning-Kruger effect). In this study, disengaged, random guessers could account for nearly all participants who grossly overestimated. Confirming that significant numbers of low-scoring participants are aware of their poor performance removes support from the "dual-burden hypothesis," which states that low-scoring participants lack both the competence and metacognitive competence needed for accurate self-assessment. The amount of guessing in a populace does not attenuate the "effect," as claimed in recent psychology literature, but magnifies it. Studies of paired measures yielded a new understanding of guessing. The "effect" is better explained as an illusion produced by probability than as an accurate portrayal of human self-assessment.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: EJ1495354
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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  Data: Unskilled but Aware of It: Understanding Self-Assessment by Estimating Guessing from Cognitive-Metacognitive Paired Measures
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  Data: We utilize concepts of numeracy including number sense, reading and interpreting graphs, basic probability and statistics, and reasoning to estimate guessing and verify our earlier findings on human self-assessment as replicable. Our field study employed a low-stakes paired measures assessment (11,229 scores from the validated Science Literacy Concept Inventory and postdicted global self-assessment ratings generated upon completion of the Inventory) in conjunction with a five-category taxonomy of self-assessment proficiency. We also simulated 11,229 random guessing responses, to model responses that disengaged, purely random-guessing participants should produce. At least 90% of participants sincerely engaged with the instruments of measure, self-assessed imperfectly but reasonably well, and exhibited equal tendencies to underestimate or overestimate their scores by modest amounts. Results contradict the prevalent claim that most people overestimate their actual abilities, with the least knowledgeable being grossly overconfident (ie, the Dunning-Kruger effect). In this study, disengaged, random guessers could account for nearly all participants who grossly overestimated. Confirming that significant numbers of low-scoring participants are aware of their poor performance removes support from the "dual-burden hypothesis," which states that low-scoring participants lack both the competence and metacognitive competence needed for accurate self-assessment. The amount of guessing in a populace does not attenuate the "effect," as claimed in recent psychology literature, but magnifies it. Studies of paired measures yielded a new understanding of guessing. The "effect" is better explained as an illusion produced by probability than as an accurate portrayal of human self-assessment.
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      – Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Guessing (Tests)
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      – SubjectFull: Multiple Choice Tests
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      – TitleFull: Unskilled but Aware of It: Understanding Self-Assessment by Estimating Guessing from Cognitive-Metacognitive Paired Measures
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