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Children's Reasoning about Possible Outcomes of Events in the Present and the Future

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Title: Children's Reasoning about Possible Outcomes of Events in the Present and the Future
Language: English
Authors: Esra Nur Turan-Küçük (ORCID 0009-0008-2083-2900), Melissa M. Kibbe (ORCID 0000-0002-9088-2523)
Source: Developmental Psychology. 2026 62(3):572-582.
Availability: American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: order@apa.org; Web site: http://www.apa.org
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 11
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: Preschool Children, Thinking Skills, Logical Thinking, Time Perspective, Planning, Expectation, Aptitude
Geographic Terms: Massachusetts (Boston)
DOI: 10.1037/dev0002028
ISSN: 0012-1649
1939-0599
Abstract: When making decisions, we often must consider multiple alternative outcomes of events that will happen in the future, or of events that have already happened but the outcome is unknown. How do children navigate uncertainty across different points in time? Here, we tested several developmental hypotheses for children's ability to reason about possibilities in the present and in the future. In two experiments (n = 192, U.S. 3- and 4-year-olds), children were asked to prepare for two mutually exclusive possible outcomes of an event that either will occur in the future (Future condition) or had already occurred but the outcome was currently unknown (Present condition). In Experiment 1 (n = 96), children were asked to reason about the possible location of an object in an event. In Experiment 2 (n = 96), children were asked to reason about the possible identity of an object in an event. In both experiments, we replicated previous patterns of success with future possibility reasoning, and found no differences in children's ability to reason about possible outcomes in the present versus the future. Our results suggest that the ability to navigate uncertainty across different time points may emerge together in early development.
Abstractor: As Provided
Notes: https://osf.io/tgx9h
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: EJ1503264
Database: ERIC
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  Data: Children's Reasoning about Possible Outcomes of Events in the Present and the Future
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Esra+Nur+Turan-Küçük%22">Esra Nur Turan-Küçük</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2083-2900">0009-0008-2083-2900</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Melissa+M%2E+Kibbe%22">Melissa M. Kibbe</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9088-2523">0000-0002-9088-2523</externalLink>)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Developmental+Psychology%22"><i>Developmental Psychology</i></searchLink>. 2026 62(3):572-582.
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  Data: American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: order@apa.org; Web site: http://www.apa.org
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  Data: 11
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: Journal Articles<br />Reports - Research
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Preschool+Children%22">Preschool Children</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thinking+Skills%22">Thinking Skills</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Logical+Thinking%22">Logical Thinking</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Time+Perspective%22">Time Perspective</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Planning%22">Planning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Expectation%22">Expectation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Aptitude%22">Aptitude</searchLink>
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  Data: 10.1037/dev0002028
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  Data: 0012-1649<br />1939-0599
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  Data: When making decisions, we often must consider multiple alternative outcomes of events that will happen in the future, or of events that have already happened but the outcome is unknown. How do children navigate uncertainty across different points in time? Here, we tested several developmental hypotheses for children's ability to reason about possibilities in the present and in the future. In two experiments (n = 192, U.S. 3- and 4-year-olds), children were asked to prepare for two mutually exclusive possible outcomes of an event that either will occur in the future (Future condition) or had already occurred but the outcome was currently unknown (Present condition). In Experiment 1 (n = 96), children were asked to reason about the possible location of an object in an event. In Experiment 2 (n = 96), children were asked to reason about the possible identity of an object in an event. In both experiments, we replicated previous patterns of success with future possibility reasoning, and found no differences in children's ability to reason about possible outcomes in the present versus the future. Our results suggest that the ability to navigate uncertainty across different time points may emerge together in early development.
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  Data: https://osf.io/tgx9h
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  Data: 2026
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        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Thinking Skills
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      – SubjectFull: Logical Thinking
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      – SubjectFull: Time Perspective
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      – SubjectFull: Planning
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      – SubjectFull: Aptitude
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      – SubjectFull: Massachusetts (Boston)
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      – TitleFull: Children's Reasoning about Possible Outcomes of Events in the Present and the Future
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