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When Pell Today Doesn't Mean Pell Tomorrow: The Challenge of Evaluating Aid Programs with Dynamic Eligibility

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Title: When Pell Today Doesn't Mean Pell Tomorrow: The Challenge of Evaluating Aid Programs with Dynamic Eligibility
Language: English
Authors: Monnica Chan (ORCID 0000-0001-8891-8446), Blake H. Heller (ORCID 0000-0003-2093-8170)
Source: Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. 2026 48(2):648-676.
Availability: SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 29
Publication Date: 2026
Sponsoring Agency: Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Contract Number: R305B150010
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: Higher Education
Postsecondary Education
Two Year Colleges
Descriptors: Federal Aid, Grants, Student Financial Aid, Eligibility, Undergraduate Students, Public Colleges, Postsecondary Education, Two Year Colleges, Outcomes of Education, Universities, Program Evaluation
Geographic Terms: Kentucky
Laws, Policies and Program Identifiers: Pell Grant Program
DOI: 10.3102/01623737251357282
ISSN: 0162-3737
1935-1062
Abstract: Generally, need-based financial aid improves students' academic outcomes. However, the largest source of need-based grant aid in the United States, the Federal Pell Grant Program, has a mixed evaluation record. We assess the minimum Pell Grant in a regression discontinuity framework, using Kentucky administrative data. We focus on whether and how year-to-year changes in aid eligibility and interactions with other aid sources attenuate Pell's estimated effects on post-secondary outcomes for marginally Pell-eligible students. This evaluation complements past work by assessing explanations for null, negative, or muted impacts found in our analysis and other Pell evaluations. We also discuss the limitations of using regression discontinuity methods to evaluate Pell--or other interventions with dynamic eligibility criteria--with respect to generalizability and construct validity.
Abstractor: As Provided
IES Funded: Yes
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: EJ1506018
Database: ERIC
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  Data: When Pell Today Doesn't Mean Pell Tomorrow: The Challenge of Evaluating Aid Programs with Dynamic Eligibility
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Monnica+Chan%22">Monnica Chan</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8891-8446">0000-0001-8891-8446</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Blake+H%2E+Heller%22">Blake H. Heller</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2093-8170">0000-0003-2093-8170</externalLink>)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Educational+Evaluation+and+Policy+Analysis%22"><i>Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis</i></searchLink>. 2026 48(2):648-676.
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  Data: SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
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  Data: 29
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Federal+Aid%22">Federal Aid</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grants%22">Grants</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Student+Financial+Aid%22">Student Financial Aid</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Eligibility%22">Eligibility</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Undergraduate+Students%22">Undergraduate Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Public+Colleges%22">Public Colleges</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Postsecondary+Education%22">Postsecondary Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Two+Year+Colleges%22">Two Year Colleges</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Outcomes+of+Education%22">Outcomes of Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Universities%22">Universities</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Program+Evaluation%22">Program Evaluation</searchLink>
– Name: Subject
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Kentucky%22">Kentucky</searchLink>
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  Label: Laws, Policies and Program Identifiers
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SU" term="%22Pell+Grant+Program%22">Pell Grant Program</searchLink>
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  Data: 10.3102/01623737251357282
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  Data: 0162-3737<br />1935-1062
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Generally, need-based financial aid improves students' academic outcomes. However, the largest source of need-based grant aid in the United States, the Federal Pell Grant Program, has a mixed evaluation record. We assess the minimum Pell Grant in a regression discontinuity framework, using Kentucky administrative data. We focus on whether and how year-to-year changes in aid eligibility and interactions with other aid sources attenuate Pell's estimated effects on post-secondary outcomes for marginally Pell-eligible students. This evaluation complements past work by assessing explanations for null, negative, or muted impacts found in our analysis and other Pell evaluations. We also discuss the limitations of using regression discontinuity methods to evaluate Pell--or other interventions with dynamic eligibility criteria--with respect to generalizability and construct validity.
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: EJ1506018
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        Value: 10.3102/01623737251357282
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      Pagination:
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      – SubjectFull: Federal Aid
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      – SubjectFull: Grants
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      – SubjectFull: Student Financial Aid
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      – SubjectFull: Eligibility
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      – SubjectFull: Kentucky
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      – SubjectFull: Pell Grant Program
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      – TitleFull: When Pell Today Doesn't Mean Pell Tomorrow: The Challenge of Evaluating Aid Programs with Dynamic Eligibility
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