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How Uncertainty Affects Children's Exploration and Exploitation in Statistical Learning

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Title: How Uncertainty Affects Children's Exploration and Exploitation in Statistical Learning
Language: English
Authors: Shelley Xiuli Tong (ORCID 0000-0003-3319-4609), Puyuan Zhang (ORCID 0000-0003-3217-2870), Mei Zhou, Johannes C. Ziegler (ORCID 0000-0002-2061-5729)
Source: Developmental Science. 2026 29(4).
Availability: Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://www.wiley.com/en-us
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 12
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: Foreign Countries, Children, Eye Movements, Attention, Prediction, Cues, Age Differences, Learning Strategies, Discovery Learning, Incidental Learning, Educational Environment, Environmental Influences
Geographic Terms: Hong Kong
DOI: 10.1111/desc.70235
ISSN: 1363-755X
1467-7687
Abstract: Environmental input is inherently uncertain at both global and local levels. Depending on the level of uncertainty, cognitive systems dynamically adapt by shifting attention between exploiting learned regularities and exploring less predictable alternatives. While these dynamics are well documented in adults, how local and global uncertainty jointly influences children's exploration-exploitation strategies during statistical learning remains unclear. Combining eye-tracking with a probabilistic cueing task, this study quantified local and global uncertainty on a trial-by-trial basis to examine their effects on children's attentional preferences for cues differing in predictive value. Overall, 158 children aged 4 to 13 years passively viewed cue-target sequences in which target shapes were predicted by cues with high- and low-transitional probabilities. Results showed that under high global uncertainty, high local uncertainty biased attention toward high-predictive cues, indicating uncertainty-exploitation, whereas low local uncertainty biased attention toward low-predictive cues, suggesting certainty-exploration. Conversely, under low global uncertainty, attentional strategies reversed, shifting toward certainty-exploitation and uncertainty-exploration. These patterns were amplified in older children but attenuated in younger ones. These findings support a developmental dynamic model of exploration-exploitation in which children's attention strategies are jointly regulated by local and global uncertainty and undergo systematic change across childhood.
Abstractor: As Provided
Notes: https://osf.io/rnpqy/overview?view_only=cab8ce604d2a46748ea02c4902c9e14a
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: EJ1509642
Database: ERIC
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  Data: How Uncertainty Affects Children's Exploration and Exploitation in Statistical Learning
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shelley+Xiuli+Tong%22">Shelley Xiuli Tong</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3319-4609">0000-0003-3319-4609</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Puyuan+Zhang%22">Puyuan Zhang</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3217-2870">0000-0003-3217-2870</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mei+Zhou%22">Mei Zhou</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Johannes+C%2E+Ziegler%22">Johannes C. Ziegler</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2061-5729">0000-0002-2061-5729</externalLink>)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Developmental+Science%22"><i>Developmental Science</i></searchLink>. 2026 29(4).
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  Data: Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://www.wiley.com/en-us
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  Data: Y
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  Data: 12
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: Journal Articles<br />Reports - Research
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Foreign+Countries%22">Foreign Countries</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Children%22">Children</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Eye+Movements%22">Eye Movements</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Attention%22">Attention</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prediction%22">Prediction</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cues%22">Cues</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Age+Differences%22">Age Differences</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Learning+Strategies%22">Learning Strategies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Discovery+Learning%22">Discovery Learning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Incidental+Learning%22">Incidental Learning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Environment%22">Educational Environment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Environmental+Influences%22">Environmental Influences</searchLink>
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  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Hong+Kong%22">Hong Kong</searchLink>
– Name: DOI
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  Data: 10.1111/desc.70235
– Name: ISSN
  Label: ISSN
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  Data: 1363-755X<br />1467-7687
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Environmental input is inherently uncertain at both global and local levels. Depending on the level of uncertainty, cognitive systems dynamically adapt by shifting attention between exploiting learned regularities and exploring less predictable alternatives. While these dynamics are well documented in adults, how local and global uncertainty jointly influences children's exploration-exploitation strategies during statistical learning remains unclear. Combining eye-tracking with a probabilistic cueing task, this study quantified local and global uncertainty on a trial-by-trial basis to examine their effects on children's attentional preferences for cues differing in predictive value. Overall, 158 children aged 4 to 13 years passively viewed cue-target sequences in which target shapes were predicted by cues with high- and low-transitional probabilities. Results showed that under high global uncertainty, high local uncertainty biased attention toward high-predictive cues, indicating uncertainty-exploitation, whereas low local uncertainty biased attention toward low-predictive cues, suggesting certainty-exploration. Conversely, under low global uncertainty, attentional strategies reversed, shifting toward certainty-exploitation and uncertainty-exploration. These patterns were amplified in older children but attenuated in younger ones. These findings support a developmental dynamic model of exploration-exploitation in which children's attention strategies are jointly regulated by local and global uncertainty and undergo systematic change across childhood.
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  Label: Abstractor
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  Data: As Provided
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  Label: Notes
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  Data: https://osf.io/rnpqy/overview?view_only=cab8ce604d2a46748ea02c4902c9e14a
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  Label: Entry Date
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  Data: 2026
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  Label: Accession Number
  Group: ID
  Data: EJ1509642
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=EJ1509642
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        Value: 10.1111/desc.70235
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      – Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Foreign Countries
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      – SubjectFull: Children
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Eye Movements
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      – SubjectFull: Attention
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      – SubjectFull: Prediction
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      – SubjectFull: Learning Strategies
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      – SubjectFull: Discovery Learning
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      – SubjectFull: Incidental Learning
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      – SubjectFull: Educational Environment
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      – SubjectFull: Environmental Influences
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      – SubjectFull: Hong Kong
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      – TitleFull: How Uncertainty Affects Children's Exploration and Exploitation in Statistical Learning
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