The Intentional Mind and the Hot Hand: Perceiving Intentions Makes Streaks Seem Likely to Continue

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Title: The Intentional Mind and the Hot Hand: Perceiving Intentions Makes Streaks Seem Likely to Continue
Language: English
Authors: Caruso, Eugene M., Waytz, Adam, Epley, Nicholas
Source: Cognition. Jul 2010 116(1):149-153.
Availability: Elsevier. 6277 Sea Harbor Drive, Orlando, FL 32887-4800. Tel: 877-839-7126; Tel: 407-345-4020; Fax: 407-363-1354; e-mail: usjcs@elsevier.com; Web site: http://www.elsevier.com
Peer Reviewed: Y
Physical Description: PDF
Page Count: 5
Publication Date: 2010
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: Prediction, Intuition, Beliefs, Intention, Cues, Perception, Brain, Cognitive Processes
DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2010.04.006
ISSN: 0010-0277
Abstract: People can appear inconsistent in their intuitions about sequences of repeated events. Sometimes people believe such sequences will continue (the "hot hand"), and sometimes people believe they will reverse (the "gambler's fallacy"). These contradictory intuitions can be partly explained by considering the perceived intentionality of the agent generating the streak. The intuition that streaks will continue (reverse) should emerge in contexts involving agents that are perceived to be intentional (unintentional), and should be most common among those who are most inclined to attribute intentions to other agents. Four studies support these predictions, identifying both situational and dispositional determinants of the perceived continuity of streaks. Discussion focuses on the foundational nature of intentionality for perceptions of interdependence between events, the relationship between these findings and existing theoretical accounts, and the inverse possibility that people use perceptions of streakiness as a cue for an agent's intentionality. (Contains 2 tables.)
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2010
Accession Number: EJ885921
Database: ERIC
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  Data: Elsevier. 6277 Sea Harbor Drive, Orlando, FL 32887-4800. Tel: 877-839-7126; Tel: 407-345-4020; Fax: 407-363-1354; e-mail: usjcs@elsevier.com; Web site: http://www.elsevier.com
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  Data: People can appear inconsistent in their intuitions about sequences of repeated events. Sometimes people believe such sequences will continue (the "hot hand"), and sometimes people believe they will reverse (the "gambler's fallacy"). These contradictory intuitions can be partly explained by considering the perceived intentionality of the agent generating the streak. The intuition that streaks will continue (reverse) should emerge in contexts involving agents that are perceived to be intentional (unintentional), and should be most common among those who are most inclined to attribute intentions to other agents. Four studies support these predictions, identifying both situational and dispositional determinants of the perceived continuity of streaks. Discussion focuses on the foundational nature of intentionality for perceptions of interdependence between events, the relationship between these findings and existing theoretical accounts, and the inverse possibility that people use perceptions of streakiness as a cue for an agent's intentionality. (Contains 2 tables.)
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