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Communicating Environmental Risks: Clarifying the Severity Effect in Interpretations of Verbal Probability Expressions

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Title: Communicating Environmental Risks: Clarifying the Severity Effect in Interpretations of Verbal Probability Expressions
Language: English
Authors: Harris, Adam J. L., Corner, Adam
Source: Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. Nov 2011 37(6):1571-1578.
Availability: American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002-4242. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: order@apa.org; Web site: http://www.apa.org/publications
Peer Reviewed: Y
Physical Description: PDF
Page Count: 8
Publication Date: 2011
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Descriptors: Research Design, Risk, Climate, Probability, Severity (of Disability), Females, Statistical Analysis, Older Adults, Undergraduate Students, Psychology, Data Interpretation
DOI: 10.1037/a0024195
ISSN: 0278-7393
Abstract: Verbal probability expressions are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, uses them to convey risks associated with climate change. Given the potential for human action to mitigate future environmental risks, it is important to understand how people respond to these expressions. In 3 studies employing a novel manipulation of event severity (so as to avoid any confound with event base rate), we demonstrated a systematic effect of event severity on the interpretation of verbal probability expressions. Challenging a previous finding in the literature, expressions referring to a severe event were interpreted as indicating a higher probability than those referring to a more neutral event. The finding was demonstrated in scenarios communicating risks relating to climate change (Studies 1 and 2) and replicated in scenarios involving nanotechnology and nuclear materials (Study 3). This is the first direct demonstration of an effect of outcome severity on the interpretation of verbal probability expressions, correcting a previous (potentially problematic) conclusion attributable to a flawed experimental design. (Contains 2 footnotes, 4 tables, and 3 figures.)
Abstractor: As Provided
Number of References: 37
Entry Date: 2012
Accession Number: EJ952449
Database: ERIC
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  Data: Verbal probability expressions are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, uses them to convey risks associated with climate change. Given the potential for human action to mitigate future environmental risks, it is important to understand how people respond to these expressions. In 3 studies employing a novel manipulation of event severity (so as to avoid any confound with event base rate), we demonstrated a systematic effect of event severity on the interpretation of verbal probability expressions. Challenging a previous finding in the literature, expressions referring to a severe event were interpreted as indicating a higher probability than those referring to a more neutral event. The finding was demonstrated in scenarios communicating risks relating to climate change (Studies 1 and 2) and replicated in scenarios involving nanotechnology and nuclear materials (Study 3). This is the first direct demonstration of an effect of outcome severity on the interpretation of verbal probability expressions, correcting a previous (potentially problematic) conclusion attributable to a flawed experimental design. (Contains 2 footnotes, 4 tables, and 3 figures.)
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      – SubjectFull: Severity (of Disability)
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      – TitleFull: Communicating Environmental Risks: Clarifying the Severity Effect in Interpretations of Verbal Probability Expressions
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