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Outbreaks and incidence of vector-borne diseases in Colombia (2007-2024): Impact of climate change and deforestation.

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Title: Outbreaks and incidence of vector-borne diseases in Colombia (2007-2024): Impact of climate change and deforestation.
Alternate Title: Brotes e incidencia de enfermedades transmitidas por vectores en Colombia (2007- 2024): impacto del cambio climático y la deforestación.
Authors: Olivera, Mario J.1,2 molivera@ins.gov.co, Porras-Villamil, Julián Felipe3, Fuentes, Màrius Vicent2
Source: Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud. 2025 Special Issue, Vol. 45, p17-29. 13p.
Subjects: VECTOR-borne diseases, CLIMATE change, EL Nino, MALARIA, DENGUE, PUBLIC health, COUNTRIES, DEFORESTATION
Geographic Terms: COLOMBIA
Abstract (English): Introduction. Vector-borne diseases pose a public health challenge in Colombia, influenced by climatic and environmental factors. El Niño and deforestation can alter vector habitats, affecting the incidence of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis, and yellow fever. This study analyzes the relationship between these variables and vector-borne diseases incidence in Colombia (2007-2024). Materials and methods. An ecological study was conducted using incidence and outbreak data for six vector-borne diseases, linked to climate information, El Niño, and deforestation. Regression models and random forests were applied to assess associations. Results. Between 2007 and 2024, 3,283,259 cases of vector-borne diseases were reported in Colombia. Of these, 49.9% (1,639,120) were dengue and 39.8% (1,307,351) malaria, accounting for 89.7% of total cases. El Niño was associated with increased incidence of dengue (β = 213.24; 95% CI: 86.05-338.43), chikungunya (β = 26.41; 95% CI: 17.54-70.36), and Zika (β = 14.12; 95% CI: 10.06-89.30). Maximum temperature showed a positive relationship with dengue (β = 5.74; 95% CI: 2.15-13.63) and malaria (β = 17.28; 95% CI: 3.81-30.75). Deforestation was associated with malaria (β = 12.35; 95% CI: 4.62- 20.08) and cutaneous leishmaniasis (β = 8.67; 95% CI: 2.21-15.13). Mean precipitation had negative associations with chikungunya and leishmaniasis. Conclusions: Climate change and deforestation impact the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in Colombia. Integrated public health and environmental conservation strategies are needed to mitigate their effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Abstract (Spanish): Introducción. Las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores representan un desafío para la salud pública en Colombia, influenciadas por factores climáticos y ambientales. El Niño y la deforestación pueden alterar los hábitats de los vectores, afectando la incidencia de dengue, fiebre de chikunguña, enfermedad por el virus del Zika, malaria, leishmaniasis cutánea y fiebre amarilla. Objetivo. Analizar la relación entre estas variables y la incidencia de las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores en Colombia (2007-2024). Materiales y métodos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico utilizando los datos de incidencia y brotes de seis enfermedades transmitidas por vectores, vinculados con información climática, El Niño y deforestación. Se aplicaron modelos de regresión y bosques aleatorios para evaluar asociaciones. Resultados. Entre el 2007 y el 2024, se registraron en Colombia 3´283.259 casos de enfermedades transmitidas por vectores. De estos, el 49,9 % (1’639.120) correspondieron a dengue y el 39,8 % (1’307.351) a malaria, representando el 89,7 % del total. El Niño se asoció con un aumento en la incidencia de dengue (β = 213,24; IC 95%: 86.05-338.43), fiebre de chikunguña (β = 26,41; IC 95%: 17,54-70,36) y enfermedad por el virus del Zika (β = 14,12; IC 95%: 10,06-89,30). La temperatura máxima mostró una relación positiva con el dengue (β = 5,74; IC 95%: 2,15-13,63) y la malaria (β = 17,28; IC 95%: 3,81-30,75). La deforestación se asoció con malaria (β = 12,35; IC 95%: 4,62-20,08) y leishmaniasis (β = 8,67; IC 95%: 2,21-15,13). La precipitación media tuvo asociaciones negativas con fiebre de chikunguña y leishmaniasis. Conclusiones. El cambio climático y la deforestación impactan la epidemiología de las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores en Colombia. Se requieren estrategias integradas de salud pública y conservación ambiental para mitigar sus efectos. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud is the property of Instituto Nacional de Salud of Colombia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Outbreaks and incidence of vector-borne diseases in Colombia (2007-2024): Impact of climate change and deforestation.
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  Data: Brotes e incidencia de enfermedades transmitidas por vectores en Colombia (2007- 2024): impacto del cambio climático y la deforestación.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Olivera%2C+Mario+J%2E%22">Olivera, Mario J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><i> molivera@ins.gov.co</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Porras-Villamil%2C+Julián+Felipe%22">Porras-Villamil, Julián Felipe</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fuentes%2C+Màrius+Vicent%22">Fuentes, Màrius Vicent</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22VECTOR-borne+diseases%22">VECTOR-borne diseases</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22CLIMATE+change%22">CLIMATE change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22EL+Nino%22">EL Nino</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22MALARIA%22">MALARIA</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22DENGUE%22">DENGUE</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22PUBLIC+health%22">PUBLIC health</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22COUNTRIES%22">COUNTRIES</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22DEFORESTATION%22">DEFORESTATION</searchLink>
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– Name: Abstract
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  Data: Introduction. Vector-borne diseases pose a public health challenge in Colombia, influenced by climatic and environmental factors. El Niño and deforestation can alter vector habitats, affecting the incidence of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis, and yellow fever. This study analyzes the relationship between these variables and vector-borne diseases incidence in Colombia (2007-2024). Materials and methods. An ecological study was conducted using incidence and outbreak data for six vector-borne diseases, linked to climate information, El Niño, and deforestation. Regression models and random forests were applied to assess associations. Results. Between 2007 and 2024, 3,283,259 cases of vector-borne diseases were reported in Colombia. Of these, 49.9% (1,639,120) were dengue and 39.8% (1,307,351) malaria, accounting for 89.7% of total cases. El Niño was associated with increased incidence of dengue (β = 213.24; 95% CI: 86.05-338.43), chikungunya (β = 26.41; 95% CI: 17.54-70.36), and Zika (β = 14.12; 95% CI: 10.06-89.30). Maximum temperature showed a positive relationship with dengue (β = 5.74; 95% CI: 2.15-13.63) and malaria (β = 17.28; 95% CI: 3.81-30.75). Deforestation was associated with malaria (β = 12.35; 95% CI: 4.62- 20.08) and cutaneous leishmaniasis (β = 8.67; 95% CI: 2.21-15.13). Mean precipitation had negative associations with chikungunya and leishmaniasis. Conclusions: Climate change and deforestation impact the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in Colombia. Integrated public health and environmental conservation strategies are needed to mitigate their effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract (Spanish)
  Group: Ab
  Data: Introducción. Las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores representan un desafío para la salud pública en Colombia, influenciadas por factores climáticos y ambientales. El Niño y la deforestación pueden alterar los hábitats de los vectores, afectando la incidencia de dengue, fiebre de chikunguña, enfermedad por el virus del Zika, malaria, leishmaniasis cutánea y fiebre amarilla. Objetivo. Analizar la relación entre estas variables y la incidencia de las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores en Colombia (2007-2024). Materiales y métodos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico utilizando los datos de incidencia y brotes de seis enfermedades transmitidas por vectores, vinculados con información climática, El Niño y deforestación. Se aplicaron modelos de regresión y bosques aleatorios para evaluar asociaciones. Resultados. Entre el 2007 y el 2024, se registraron en Colombia 3´283.259 casos de enfermedades transmitidas por vectores. De estos, el 49,9 % (1’639.120) correspondieron a dengue y el 39,8 % (1’307.351) a malaria, representando el 89,7 % del total. El Niño se asoció con un aumento en la incidencia de dengue (β = 213,24; IC 95%: 86.05-338.43), fiebre de chikunguña (β = 26,41; IC 95%: 17,54-70,36) y enfermedad por el virus del Zika (β = 14,12; IC 95%: 10,06-89,30). La temperatura máxima mostró una relación positiva con el dengue (β = 5,74; IC 95%: 2,15-13,63) y la malaria (β = 17,28; IC 95%: 3,81-30,75). La deforestación se asoció con malaria (β = 12,35; IC 95%: 4,62-20,08) y leishmaniasis (β = 8,67; IC 95%: 2,21-15,13). La precipitación media tuvo asociaciones negativas con fiebre de chikunguña y leishmaniasis. Conclusiones. El cambio climático y la deforestación impactan la epidemiología de las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores en Colombia. Se requieren estrategias integradas de salud pública y conservación ambiental para mitigar sus efectos. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud is the property of Instituto Nacional de Salud of Colombia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.7705/biomedica.7897
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: VECTOR-borne diseases
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: CLIMATE change
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      – SubjectFull: EL Nino
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      – SubjectFull: MALARIA
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      – SubjectFull: DENGUE
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      – SubjectFull: PUBLIC health
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      – SubjectFull: COUNTRIES
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      – SubjectFull: DEFORESTATION
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      – SubjectFull: COLOMBIA
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      – TitleFull: Outbreaks and incidence of vector-borne diseases in Colombia (2007-2024): Impact of climate change and deforestation.
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              Text: 2025 Special Issue
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