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Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century.

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Title: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century.
Authors: Grünig M; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany.; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland., Rammer W; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany., Senf C; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Earth Observation for Ecosystem Management, Freising, Germany., Albrich K; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Forest Health and Biodiversity Group, Helsinki, Finland.; University of Eastern Finland, Faculty of Science, Forestry and Technology, School of Forest Sciences, Joensuu, Finnland., André F; Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium., Augustynczik ALD; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group, Laxenburg, Austria., Baumann M; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany., Bohn FJ; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.; BAM Nachhaltigkeit Beratung Medien GmbH-VE, Berlin, Germany., Bouwman M; Wageningen University & Research, Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen, Netherlands., Bugmann H; ETH Zürich, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Zürich, Switzerland., Collalti A; National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAFOM), Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, Forest Modelling Lab, Perugia, Italy.; National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), Palermo, Italy., Cristal I; Departament de Ciències Ambientals, Facultat de Ciències, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Catalonia, Spain.; Forest Science and Technology Center of Catalonia (CTFC), Solsona, Spain., Dalmonech D; National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAFOM), Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, Forest Modelling Lab, Perugia, Italy.; National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), Palermo, Italy., De Coligny F; AMAP, INRAE-CIRAD-CNRS-IRD-Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France., Dobor L; Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic., Dollinger C; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany., Espelta JM; CREAF, Catalonia, Spain., Forrester DI; CSIRO Environment, Australian Capital Territory, Australia., Garcia-Gonzalo J; Forest Science and Technology Center of Catalonia (CTFC), Solsona, Spain., González-Olabarria JR; Forest Science and Technology Center of Catalonia (CTFC), Solsona, Spain., Hiltner U; ETH Zürich, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Zürich, Switzerland., Hlásny T; Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic., Honkaniemi J; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Forest Health and Biodiversity Group, Helsinki, Finland., Huber N; ETH Zürich, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Zürich, Switzerland.; Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland., Jonard M; Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium., Jönsson AM; Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund, Sweden., Kunstler G; Université Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, UR LESSEM, Saint-Martin-d'Hères, France., Lagergren F; Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund, Sweden., Lindner M; European Forest Institute, Bonn, Germany., Mina M; Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Bolzano, Italy., Moos C; Bern University of Applied Sciences, BFH-HAFL, Zollikofen, Switzerland., Morin X; CNRS, Univ. Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, UMR CEFE 1919, Montpellier, France., Muys B; KU Leuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Leuven, Belgium., Nabuurs GJ; Wageningen University & Research, Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen, Netherlands.; Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands., Nieberg M; European Forest Institute, Bonn, Germany.; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Patacca M; Wageningen University & Research, Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen, Netherlands.; Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands., Peltoniemi M; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Forest Health and Biodiversity Group, Helsinki, Finland., Reyer CPO; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Schelhaas MJ; Wageningen University & Research, Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen, Netherlands.; Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands., Storms I; KU Leuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Leuven, Belgium., Thom D; TUD Dresden University of Technology, Institute of Silviculture and Forest Protection, Chair of Silviculture, Tharandt, Germany.; Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA., Toïgo M; Université Bordeaux, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, INRAE, Biogeco, Cestas, France.; Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Gradignan, France., Seidl R; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany.; Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany.
Source: Science (New York, N.Y.) [Science] 2026 Mar 05; Vol. 391 (6789), pp. eadx6329. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Mar 05.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Journal Info: Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 0404511 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1095-9203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00368075 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Science Subsets: MEDLINE
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  Data: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Grünig+M%22">Grünig M</searchLink>; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany.; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Rammer+W%22">Rammer W</searchLink>; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Senf+C%22">Senf C</searchLink>; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Earth Observation for Ecosystem Management, Freising, Germany.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Albrich+K%22">Albrich K</searchLink>; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Forest Health and Biodiversity Group, Helsinki, Finland.; University of Eastern Finland, Faculty of Science, Forestry and Technology, School of Forest Sciences, Joensuu, Finnland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22André+F%22">André F</searchLink>; Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Augustynczik+ALD%22">Augustynczik ALD</searchLink>; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group, Laxenburg, Austria.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Baumann+M%22">Baumann M</searchLink>; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Bohn+FJ%22">Bohn FJ</searchLink>; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.; BAM Nachhaltigkeit Beratung Medien GmbH-VE, Berlin, Germany.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Bouwman+M%22">Bouwman M</searchLink>; Wageningen University & Research, Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen, Netherlands.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Bugmann+H%22">Bugmann H</searchLink>; ETH Zürich, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Zürich, Switzerland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Collalti+A%22">Collalti A</searchLink>; National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAFOM), Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, Forest Modelling Lab, Perugia, Italy.; National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), Palermo, Italy.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Cristal+I%22">Cristal I</searchLink>; Departament de Ciències Ambientals, Facultat de Ciències, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Catalonia, Spain.; Forest Science and Technology Center of Catalonia (CTFC), Solsona, Spain.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Dalmonech+D%22">Dalmonech D</searchLink>; National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAFOM), Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, Forest Modelling Lab, Perugia, Italy.; National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), Palermo, Italy.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22De+Coligny+F%22">De Coligny F</searchLink>; AMAP, INRAE-CIRAD-CNRS-IRD-Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Dobor+L%22">Dobor L</searchLink>; Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Dollinger+C%22">Dollinger C</searchLink>; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Freising, Germany.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Espelta+JM%22">Espelta JM</searchLink>; CREAF, Catalonia, Spain.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Forrester+DI%22">Forrester DI</searchLink>; CSIRO Environment, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Garcia-Gonzalo+J%22">Garcia-Gonzalo J</searchLink>; Forest Science and Technology Center of Catalonia (CTFC), Solsona, Spain.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22González-Olabarria+JR%22">González-Olabarria JR</searchLink>; Forest Science and Technology Center of Catalonia (CTFC), Solsona, Spain.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Hiltner+U%22">Hiltner U</searchLink>; ETH Zürich, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Zürich, Switzerland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Hlásny+T%22">Hlásny T</searchLink>; Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Honkaniemi+J%22">Honkaniemi J</searchLink>; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Forest Health and Biodiversity Group, Helsinki, Finland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Huber+N%22">Huber N</searchLink>; ETH Zürich, Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Zürich, Switzerland.; Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Jonard+M%22">Jonard M</searchLink>; Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Jönsson+AM%22">Jönsson AM</searchLink>; Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund, Sweden.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Kunstler+G%22">Kunstler G</searchLink>; Université Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, UR LESSEM, Saint-Martin-d'Hères, France.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Lagergren+F%22">Lagergren F</searchLink>; Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund, Sweden.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Lindner+M%22">Lindner M</searchLink>; European Forest Institute, Bonn, Germany.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Mina+M%22">Mina M</searchLink>; Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Bolzano, Italy.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Moos+C%22">Moos C</searchLink>; Bern University of Applied Sciences, BFH-HAFL, Zollikofen, Switzerland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Morin+X%22">Morin X</searchLink>; CNRS, Univ. 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