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Discriminating clinical prediction models: how outcome incidence and decision thresholds shape clinical utility and apt AUROC values.

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Title: Discriminating clinical prediction models: how outcome incidence and decision thresholds shape clinical utility and apt AUROC values.
Authors: Foroutan F; Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: Farid.foroutan@uhn.ca., Weiss J; Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada., Mayer M; EBSCO Clinical Decisions, EBSCO Information Services, Ipswich, MA, USA; Open Door Clinic, Cone Health, Burlington, NC, USA., Bache-Mathiesen LK; Department of Behavioural Medicine, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Agoritsas T; MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, Oslo, Norway; Department of Medicine, University Hospitals of Geneva, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK., Vandvik PO; MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, Oslo, Norway., Signorile M; Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada., Ensor J; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada., Agarwal A; MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, Oslo, Norway; Department of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada., Guyatt G; MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, Oslo, Norway; Department of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK., Riley RD; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK.
Source: Journal of clinical epidemiology [J Clin Epidemiol] 2026 Jul; Vol. 195, pp. 112293. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Apr 25.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Journal Info: Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 8801383 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1878-5921 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 08954356 NLM ISO Abbreviation: J Clin Epidemiol Subsets: MEDLINE
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Foroutan+F%22">Foroutan F</searchLink>; Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: Farid.foroutan@uhn.ca.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Weiss+J%22">Weiss J</searchLink>; Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Mayer+M%22">Mayer M</searchLink>; EBSCO Clinical Decisions, EBSCO Information Services, Ipswich, MA, USA; Open Door Clinic, Cone Health, Burlington, NC, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Bache-Mathiesen+LK%22">Bache-Mathiesen LK</searchLink>; Department of Behavioural Medicine, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Agoritsas+T%22">Agoritsas T</searchLink>; MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, Oslo, Norway; Department of Medicine, University Hospitals of Geneva, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Vandvik+PO%22">Vandvik PO</searchLink>; MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, Oslo, Norway.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Signorile+M%22">Signorile M</searchLink>; Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Ensor+J%22">Ensor J</searchLink>; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Agarwal+A%22">Agarwal A</searchLink>; MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, Oslo, Norway; Department of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Guyatt+G%22">Guyatt G</searchLink>; MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, Oslo, Norway; Department of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Riley+RD%22">Riley RD</searchLink>; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%228801383%22">Journal of clinical epidemiology</searchLink> [J Clin Epidemiol] 2026 Jul; Vol. 195, pp. 112293. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2026 Apr 25.
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              Text: 2026 Jul
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