Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems
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| Title: | Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems |
|---|---|
| Description: | Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by'debiasing'the presentation of information. A newer literature on'naturalistic'decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of'cold'and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty. |
| Authors: | Davis, Paul K., Kulick, Jonathan, Egner, Michael |
| Resource Type: | eBook. |
| Subjects: | Military planning--United States--Decision making--Data processing, Decision support systems |
| Categories: | TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science |
| Database: | eBook Collection (EBSCOhost) |
| FullText | Links: – Type: ebook-pdf Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems – Name: Abstract Label: Description Group: Ab Data: Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by'debiasing'the presentation of information. A newer literature on'naturalistic'decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of'cold'and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Davis%2C+Paul+K%2E%22">Davis, Paul K.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kulick%2C+Jonathan%22">Kulick, Jonathan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Egner%2C+Michael%22">Egner, Michael</searchLink> – Name: TypePub Label: Resource Type Group: TypPub Data: eBook. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Military+planning--United+States--Decision+making--Data+processing%22">Military planning--United States--Decision making--Data processing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Decision+support+systems%22">Decision support systems</searchLink> – Name: SubjectBISAC Label: Categories Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="ZK" term="%22TECHNOLOGY+%26+ENGINEERING+%2F+Military+Science%22">TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science</searchLink> |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Classifications: – Code: 358.4070973 Scheme: ddc Type: prePub Languages: – Code: eng Text: English Subjects: – SubjectFull: Military planning--United States--Decision making--Data processing Type: general – SubjectFull: Decision support systems Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Davis, Paul K. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kulick, Jonathan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Egner, Michael – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Davis, Paul K. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kulick, Jonathan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Egner, Michael IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Type: published Y: 2005 – D: 04 M: 02 Type: profile Y: 2014 Identifiers: – Type: isbn-print Value: 9780833038081 – Type: isbn-electronic Value: 9780833040886 Titles: – TitleFull: Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
