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Secular Cycles

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Title: Secular Cycles
Description: Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.
Authors: Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov
Resource Type: eBook.
Subjects: Economic development--Mathematical models, Business cycles--Mathematical models, Population--Mathematical models, Demography--Mathematical models
Categories: SOCIAL SCIENCE / Demography, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economic History, POLITICAL SCIENCE / General, SOCIAL SCIENCE / Sociology / General
Database: eBook Collection (EBSCOhost)
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Header DbId: nlebk
DbLabel: eBook Collection (EBSCOhost)
An: 376577
RelevancyScore: 1025
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: eBook
PubTypeId: ebook
PreciseRelevancyScore: 1024.62744140625
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  Data: Secular Cycles
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Description
  Group: Ab
  Data: Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Peter+Turchin%22">Peter Turchin</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sergey+A%2E+Nefedov%22">Sergey A. Nefedov</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+development--Mathematical+models%22">Economic development--Mathematical models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Business+cycles--Mathematical+models%22">Business cycles--Mathematical models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Population--Mathematical+models%22">Population--Mathematical models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Demography--Mathematical+models%22">Demography--Mathematical models</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="ZK" term="%22SOCIAL+SCIENCE+%2F+Demography%22">SOCIAL SCIENCE / Demography</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="ZK" term="%22BUSINESS+%26+ECONOMICS+%2F+Economic+History%22">BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economic History</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="ZK" term="%22POLITICAL+SCIENCE+%2F+General%22">POLITICAL SCIENCE / General</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="ZK" term="%22SOCIAL+SCIENCE+%2F+Sociology+%2F+General%22">SOCIAL SCIENCE / Sociology / General</searchLink>
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Classifications:
      – Code: 304.6
        Scheme: ddc
        Type: prePub
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Economic development--Mathematical models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Business cycles--Mathematical models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Population--Mathematical models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Demography--Mathematical models
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Secular Cycles
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Peter Turchin
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Sergey A. Nefedov
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Peter Turchin
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Sergey A. Nefedov
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 01
              Type: published
              Y: 2009
            – D: 04
              M: 02
              Type: profile
              Y: 2014
          Identifiers:
            – Type: isbn-print
              Value: 9780691136967
            – Type: isbn-electronic
              Value: 9781400830688
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Secular Cycles
              Type: main
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