Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN Sustainable Development Goal for health.
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| Title: | Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN Sustainable Development Goal for health. |
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| Authors: | Norheim, Ole F., Jha, Prabhat, Admasu, Kesetebirhan, Godal, Tore, Hum, Ryan J., Kruk, Margaret E., Gómez-Dantés, Octavio, Mathers, Colin D., Hongchao Pan, Sepúlveda, Jamie, Suraweera, Wilson, Verguet, Stéphanie, Woldermariam, Addis T., Yamey, Gavin, Jamison, Dean T., Peto, Richard |
| Source: | Lancet. 1/17/2015, Vol. 385 Issue 9964, p239-252. 14p. 3 Charts, 4 Graphs. |
| Subjects: | Early death, United Nations, Mortality, UN Millennium Project, HIV |
| Abstract: | Background: The UN will formulate ambitious Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, including one for health. Feasible goals with some quantifiable, measurable targets can influence governments. We propose, as a qualitative health target, “Avoid in each country 40% of premature deaths (under-70 deaths that would be seen in the 2030 population at 2010 death rates), and improve health care at all ages”. Targeting overall mortality and improved health care ignores no modifiable cause of death, nor any cause of disability that is treatable (or also causes many deaths). 40% fewer premature deaths would be important in all countries, but implies very different priorities in different populations. Reinforcing this target for overall mortality in each country are four global subtargets for 2030: avoid two-thirds of child and maternal deaths; two-thirds of tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria deaths; a third of premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and a third of those from other causes (other communicable diseases, undernutrition, and injuries). These challenging subtargets would halve under-50 deaths, avoid a third of the (mainly NCD) deaths at ages 50-69 years, and so avoid 40% of under-70 deaths. To help assess feasibility, we review mortality rates and trends in the 25 most populous countries, in four country income groupings, and worldwide. Methods: UN sources yielded overall 1970-2010 mortality trends. WHO sources yielded cause-specific 2000-10 trends, standardised to country-specific 2030 populations; decreases per decade of 42% or 18% would yield 20-year reductions of two-thirds or a third. Results: Throughout the world, except in countries where the effects of HIV or political disturbances predominated, mortality decreased substantially from 1970-2010, particularly in childhood. From 2000-10, under-70 age-standardised mortality rates decreased 19% (with the low-income and lower-middle-income countries having the greatest absolute gains). The proportional decreases per decade (2000-10) were: 34% at ages 0-4 years; 17% at ages 5-49 years; 15% at ages 50-69 years; 30% for communicable, perinatal, maternal, or nutritional causes; 14% for NCDs; and 13% for injuries (accident, suicide, or homicide). Interpretation Moderate acceleration of the 2000-10 proportional decreases in mortality could be feasible, achieving the targeted 2030 disease-specific reductions of two-thirds or a third. If achieved, these reductions avoid about 10 million of the 20 million deaths at ages 0-49 years that would be seen in 2030 at 2010 death rates, and about 17 million of the 41 million such deaths at ages 0-69 years. Such changes could be achievable by 2030, or soon afterwards, at least in areas free of war, other major effects of political disruption, or a major new epidemic. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, Centre for Global Health Research, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © Norheim et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. INSETS: Panel 1: Post-2015 global health goals;Panel 2: Research in context;Panel 3: Ethiopia;Panel 4: Mexico [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: pbh DbLabel: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection An: 100492467 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN Sustainable Development Goal for health. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Norheim%2C+Ole+F%2E%22">Norheim, Ole F.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jha%2C+Prabhat%22">Jha, Prabhat</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Admasu%2C+Kesetebirhan%22">Admasu, Kesetebirhan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Godal%2C+Tore%22">Godal, Tore</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hum%2C+Ryan+J%2E%22">Hum, Ryan J.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kruk%2C+Margaret+E%2E%22">Kruk, Margaret E.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gómez-Dantés%2C+Octavio%22">Gómez-Dantés, Octavio</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mathers%2C+Colin+D%2E%22">Mathers, Colin D.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hongchao+Pan%22">Hongchao Pan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sepúlveda%2C+Jamie%22">Sepúlveda, Jamie</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Suraweera%2C+Wilson%22">Suraweera, Wilson</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Verguet%2C+Stéphanie%22">Verguet, Stéphanie</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Woldermariam%2C+Addis+T%2E%22">Woldermariam, Addis T.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yamey%2C+Gavin%22">Yamey, Gavin</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jamison%2C+Dean+T%2E%22">Jamison, Dean T.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Peto%2C+Richard%22">Peto, Richard</searchLink> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Lancet%22">Lancet</searchLink>. 1/17/2015, Vol. 385 Issue 9964, p239-252. 14p. 3 Charts, 4 Graphs. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Early+death%22">Early death</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+Nations%22">United Nations</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mortality%22">Mortality</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22UN+Millennium+Project%22">UN Millennium Project</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HIV%22">HIV</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Background: The UN will formulate ambitious Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, including one for health. Feasible goals with some quantifiable, measurable targets can influence governments. We propose, as a qualitative health target, “Avoid in each country 40% of premature deaths (under-70 deaths that would be seen in the 2030 population at 2010 death rates), and improve health care at all ages”. Targeting overall mortality and improved health care ignores no modifiable cause of death, nor any cause of disability that is treatable (or also causes many deaths). 40% fewer premature deaths would be important in all countries, but implies very different priorities in different populations. Reinforcing this target for overall mortality in each country are four global subtargets for 2030: avoid two-thirds of child and maternal deaths; two-thirds of tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria deaths; a third of premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and a third of those from other causes (other communicable diseases, undernutrition, and injuries). These challenging subtargets would halve under-50 deaths, avoid a third of the (mainly NCD) deaths at ages 50-69 years, and so avoid 40% of under-70 deaths. To help assess feasibility, we review mortality rates and trends in the 25 most populous countries, in four country income groupings, and worldwide. Methods: UN sources yielded overall 1970-2010 mortality trends. WHO sources yielded cause-specific 2000-10 trends, standardised to country-specific 2030 populations; decreases per decade of 42% or 18% would yield 20-year reductions of two-thirds or a third. Results: Throughout the world, except in countries where the effects of HIV or political disturbances predominated, mortality decreased substantially from 1970-2010, particularly in childhood. From 2000-10, under-70 age-standardised mortality rates decreased 19% (with the low-income and lower-middle-income countries having the greatest absolute gains). The proportional decreases per decade (2000-10) were: 34% at ages 0-4 years; 17% at ages 5-49 years; 15% at ages 50-69 years; 30% for communicable, perinatal, maternal, or nutritional causes; 14% for NCDs; and 13% for injuries (accident, suicide, or homicide). Interpretation Moderate acceleration of the 2000-10 proportional decreases in mortality could be feasible, achieving the targeted 2030 disease-specific reductions of two-thirds or a third. If achieved, these reductions avoid about 10 million of the 20 million deaths at ages 0-49 years that would be seen in 2030 at 2010 death rates, and about 17 million of the 41 million such deaths at ages 0-69 years. Such changes could be achievable by 2030, or soon afterwards, at least in areas free of war, other major effects of political disruption, or a major new epidemic. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, Centre for Global Health Research, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © Norheim et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. INSETS: Panel 1: Post-2015 global health goals;Panel 2: Research in context;Panel 3: Ethiopia;Panel 4: Mexico [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Lancet is the property of Lancet and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61591-9 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 14 StartPage: 239 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Early death Type: general – SubjectFull: United Nations Type: general – SubjectFull: Mortality Type: general – SubjectFull: UN Millennium Project Type: general – SubjectFull: HIV Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN Sustainable Development Goal for health. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Norheim, Ole F. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jha, Prabhat – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Admasu, Kesetebirhan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Godal, Tore – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Hum, Ryan J. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kruk, Margaret E. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Gómez-Dantés, Octavio – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Mathers, Colin D. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Hongchao Pan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Sepúlveda, Jamie – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Suraweera, Wilson – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Verguet, Stéphanie – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Woldermariam, Addis T. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Yamey, Gavin – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jamison, Dean T. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Peto, Richard IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 17 M: 01 Text: 1/17/2015 Type: published Y: 2015 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 01406736 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 385 – Type: issue Value: 9964 Titles: – TitleFull: Lancet Type: main |
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