A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium.
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| Title: | A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Ortega, Pablo, Lehner, Flavio, Swingedouw, Didier, Masson-Delmotte, Valerie, Raible, Christoph C., Casado, Mathieu, Yiou, Pascal |
| Source: | Nature. 7/2/2015, Vol. 523 Issue 7558, p71-74. 4p. 7 Charts, 6 Graphs, 1 Map. |
| Subjects: | North Atlantic oscillation, Atmospheric circulation, Weather forecasting, Computer simulation of climate change, Effect of volcanic eruptions on weather, Multivariate analysis |
| Abstract: | The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management. Recent developments in dynamical methods offer promise to improve seasonal NAO predictions, but assessing potential predictability on multi-annual timescales requires documentation of past low-frequency variability in the NAO. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction spanning the past millennium suggested that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions in Europe during this period; however, these conclusions are debated. Here, we present a yearly NAO reconstruction for the past millennium, based on an initial selection of 48 annually resolved proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. We validate the approach in six past-millennium climate simulations, and show that our reconstruction outperforms the bi-proxy index. The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. The reconstruction also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Nature is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: pbh DbLabel: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection An: 103631464 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ortega%2C+Pablo%22">Ortega, Pablo</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lehner%2C+Flavio%22">Lehner, Flavio</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Swingedouw%2C+Didier%22">Swingedouw, Didier</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Masson-Delmotte%2C+Valerie%22">Masson-Delmotte, Valerie</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Raible%2C+Christoph+C%2E%22">Raible, Christoph C.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Casado%2C+Mathieu%22">Casado, Mathieu</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yiou%2C+Pascal%22">Yiou, Pascal</searchLink> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Nature%22">Nature</searchLink>. 7/2/2015, Vol. 523 Issue 7558, p71-74. 4p. 7 Charts, 6 Graphs, 1 Map. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Atlantic+oscillation%22">North Atlantic oscillation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+circulation%22">Atmospheric circulation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather+forecasting%22">Weather forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Computer+simulation+of+climate+change%22">Computer simulation of climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Effect+of+volcanic+eruptions+on+weather%22">Effect of volcanic eruptions on weather</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Multivariate+analysis%22">Multivariate analysis</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management. Recent developments in dynamical methods offer promise to improve seasonal NAO predictions, but assessing potential predictability on multi-annual timescales requires documentation of past low-frequency variability in the NAO. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction spanning the past millennium suggested that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions in Europe during this period; however, these conclusions are debated. Here, we present a yearly NAO reconstruction for the past millennium, based on an initial selection of 48 annually resolved proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. We validate the approach in six past-millennium climate simulations, and show that our reconstruction outperforms the bi-proxy index. The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. The reconstruction also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Nature is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=pbh&AN=103631464 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1038/nature14518 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 4 StartPage: 71 Subjects: – SubjectFull: North Atlantic oscillation Type: general – SubjectFull: Atmospheric circulation Type: general – SubjectFull: Weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Computer simulation of climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Effect of volcanic eruptions on weather Type: general – SubjectFull: Multivariate analysis Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Ortega, Pablo – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Lehner, Flavio – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Swingedouw, Didier – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Masson-Delmotte, Valerie – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Raible, Christoph C. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Casado, Mathieu – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Yiou, Pascal IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 02 M: 07 Text: 7/2/2015 Type: published Y: 2015 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00280836 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 523 – Type: issue Value: 7558 Titles: – TitleFull: Nature Type: main |
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