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Assessing the confidence-accuracy relationship in risk assessments using the START: introducing calibration analysis.

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Title: Assessing the confidence-accuracy relationship in risk assessments using the START: introducing calibration analysis.
Authors: Farrell, Christian (AUTHOR), Petersen, Karen L. (AUTHOR), Nicholls, Tonia L. (AUTHOR), Roesch, Ronald (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology. Dec2020, Vol. 31 Issue 6, p982-1001. 20p. 3 Charts, 4 Graphs.
Subjects: Risk assessment, Calibration, Public safety, Substance abuse, Best practices
Abstract: A risk assessor's confidence has been shown to influence both the rater as well as those evaluating the risk assessment. It is important to consider the impact of confidence on accuracy in the risk assessment field given the significant implications of risk assessments for the assessed (e.g. available treatment options vs. restrictions of liberties) and the safety of the public. While prior research in the risk assessment field has used correlations to investigate the confidence-accuracy (C-A) relationship, a number of fields in psychology have introduced additional techniques, including calibration analysis, to understand this relationship. In this study, we examined the C-A relationship across various adverse clinical outcomes using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) and compared and contrasted the C-A relationship using conventional methods (i.e. correlations/ROC analysis) and calibration. Raters completed START assessments for a sample of 106 civil psychiatric inpatients. Overall, calibration provided greater detail into the C-A relationship compared to correlations/ROC analysis. Our results also suggested that the C-A relationship varied as a function of the outcome assessed (e.g. violence, substance abuse, unauthorized leave). These results provide insights into the C-A relationship in medico-legal settings and can inform best practices for risk assessment training and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Assessing the confidence-accuracy relationship in risk assessments using the START: introducing calibration analysis.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Farrell%2C+Christian%22">Farrell, Christian</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Petersen%2C+Karen+L%2E%22">Petersen, Karen L.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nicholls%2C+Tonia+L%2E%22">Nicholls, Tonia L.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Roesch%2C+Ronald%22">Roesch, Ronald</searchLink> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Forensic+Psychiatry+%26+Psychology%22">Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology</searchLink>. Dec2020, Vol. 31 Issue 6, p982-1001. 20p. 3 Charts, 4 Graphs.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Risk+assessment%22">Risk assessment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Calibration%22">Calibration</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Public+safety%22">Public safety</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Substance+abuse%22">Substance abuse</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Best+practices%22">Best practices</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: A risk assessor's confidence has been shown to influence both the rater as well as those evaluating the risk assessment. It is important to consider the impact of confidence on accuracy in the risk assessment field given the significant implications of risk assessments for the assessed (e.g. available treatment options vs. restrictions of liberties) and the safety of the public. While prior research in the risk assessment field has used correlations to investigate the confidence-accuracy (C-A) relationship, a number of fields in psychology have introduced additional techniques, including calibration analysis, to understand this relationship. In this study, we examined the C-A relationship across various adverse clinical outcomes using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) and compared and contrasted the C-A relationship using conventional methods (i.e. correlations/ROC analysis) and calibration. Raters completed START assessments for a sample of 106 civil psychiatric inpatients. Overall, calibration provided greater detail into the C-A relationship compared to correlations/ROC analysis. Our results also suggested that the C-A relationship varied as a function of the outcome assessed (e.g. violence, substance abuse, unauthorized leave). These results provide insights into the C-A relationship in medico-legal settings and can inform best practices for risk assessment training and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=pbh&AN=146928714
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        Value: 10.1080/14789949.2020.1814845
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Public safety
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              Text: Dec2020
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