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Clinical utility of family history of depression for prognosis of adolescent depression severity and duration assessed with predictive modeling.

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Title: Clinical utility of family history of depression for prognosis of adolescent depression severity and duration assessed with predictive modeling.
Authors: Gorham, Lisa S., Sadeghi, Neda, Eisner, Lillian, Taigman, Jeremy, Haynes, Katherine, Qi, Karen, Camp, Christopher C., Fors, Payton, Rodriguez, Diana, McGuire, Jerry, Garth, Erin, Engel, Chana, Davis, Mollie, Towbin, Kenneth, Stringaris, Argyris, Nielson, Dylan M.
Source: Journal of Child Psychology & Psychiatry. Aug2022, Vol. 63 Issue 8, p939-947. 9p. 1 Chart, 2 Graphs.
Subjects: Severity of illness index, Mental depression, Prediction models
Abstract: Background: Family history of depression (FHD) is a known risk factor for the new onset of depression. However, it is unclear if FHD is clinically useful for prognosis in adolescents with current, ongoing, or past depression. This preregistered study uses a longitudinal, multi‐informant design to examine whether a child's FHD adds information about future depressive episodes and depression severity applying state‐of‐the‐art predictive out‐of‐sample methodology. Methods: We examined data in adolescents with current or past depression (age 11–17 years) from the National Institute of Mental Health Characterization and Treatment of Adolescent Depression (CAT‐D) study. We asked whether a history of depression in a first‐degree relative was predictive of depressive episode duration (72 participants) and future depressive symptom severity in probands (129 participants, 1,439 total assessments). Results: Family history of depression, while statistically associated with time spent depressed, did not improve predictions of time spent depressed, nor did it improve models of change in depression severity measured by self‐ or parent‐report. Conclusions: Family history of depression does not improve the prediction of the course of depression in adolescents already diagnosed with depression. The difference between statistical association and predictive models highlights the importance of assessing predictive performance when evaluating questions of clinical utility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Child Psychology & Psychiatry is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Clinical utility of family history of depression for prognosis of adolescent depression severity and duration assessed with predictive modeling.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gorham%2C+Lisa+S%2E%22">Gorham, Lisa S.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sadeghi%2C+Neda%22">Sadeghi, Neda</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Eisner%2C+Lillian%22">Eisner, Lillian</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Taigman%2C+Jeremy%22">Taigman, Jeremy</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Haynes%2C+Katherine%22">Haynes, Katherine</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Qi%2C+Karen%22">Qi, Karen</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Camp%2C+Christopher+C%2E%22">Camp, Christopher C.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fors%2C+Payton%22">Fors, Payton</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rodriguez%2C+Diana%22">Rodriguez, Diana</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22McGuire%2C+Jerry%22">McGuire, Jerry</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Garth%2C+Erin%22">Garth, Erin</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Engel%2C+Chana%22">Engel, Chana</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Davis%2C+Mollie%22">Davis, Mollie</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Towbin%2C+Kenneth%22">Towbin, Kenneth</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stringaris%2C+Argyris%22">Stringaris, Argyris</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nielson%2C+Dylan+M%2E%22">Nielson, Dylan M.</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Child+Psychology+%26+Psychiatry%22">Journal of Child Psychology & Psychiatry</searchLink>. Aug2022, Vol. 63 Issue 8, p939-947. 9p. 1 Chart, 2 Graphs.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Severity+of+illness+index%22">Severity of illness index</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mental+depression%22">Mental depression</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prediction+models%22">Prediction models</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Background: Family history of depression (FHD) is a known risk factor for the new onset of depression. However, it is unclear if FHD is clinically useful for prognosis in adolescents with current, ongoing, or past depression. This preregistered study uses a longitudinal, multi‐informant design to examine whether a child's FHD adds information about future depressive episodes and depression severity applying state‐of‐the‐art predictive out‐of‐sample methodology. Methods: We examined data in adolescents with current or past depression (age 11–17 years) from the National Institute of Mental Health Characterization and Treatment of Adolescent Depression (CAT‐D) study. We asked whether a history of depression in a first‐degree relative was predictive of depressive episode duration (72 participants) and future depressive symptom severity in probands (129 participants, 1,439 total assessments). Results: Family history of depression, while statistically associated with time spent depressed, did not improve predictions of time spent depressed, nor did it improve models of change in depression severity measured by self‐ or parent‐report. Conclusions: Family history of depression does not improve the prediction of the course of depression in adolescents already diagnosed with depression. The difference between statistical association and predictive models highlights the importance of assessing predictive performance when evaluating questions of clinical utility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Child Psychology & Psychiatry is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1111/jcpp.13547
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        Text: English
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        PageCount: 9
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      – SubjectFull: Mental depression
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      – SubjectFull: Prediction models
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              Text: Aug2022
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