View in EDS PDF Full Text

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases.
Authors: Stainforth, D. A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L. A., Spicer, R. A., Thorpe, A. J., Allen, M. R.
Source: Nature. 1/27/2005, Vol. 433 Issue 7024, p403-406. 4p.
Subjects: Greenhouse gases, Climate change, Atmospheric carbon dioxide, Acclimatization, Climatology, Carbon dioxide
Abstract: The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change, admit climate sensitivities-defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide-substantially greater than 5?K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the‘climateprediction.net’experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2?K to more than 11?K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Nature is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
FullText Links:
  – Type: pdflink
Text:
  Availability: 0
Header DbId: pbh
DbLabel: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
An: 15825236
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stainforth%2C+D%2E+A%2E%22">Stainforth, D. A.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Aina%2C+T%2E%22">Aina, T.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Christensen%2C+C%2E%22">Christensen, C.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Collins%2C+M%2E%22">Collins, M.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Faull%2C+N%2E%22">Faull, N.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Frame%2C+D%2E+J%2E%22">Frame, D. J.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kettleborough%2C+J%2E+A%2E%22">Kettleborough, J. A.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Knight%2C+S%2E%22">Knight, S.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Martin%2C+A%2E%22">Martin, A.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Murphy%2C+J%2E+M%2E%22">Murphy, J. M.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Piani%2C+C%2E%22">Piani, C.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sexton%2C+D%2E%22">Sexton, D.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Smith%2C+L%2E+A%2E%22">Smith, L. A.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Spicer%2C+R%2E+A%2E%22">Spicer, R. A.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thorpe%2C+A%2E+J%2E%22">Thorpe, A. J.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Allen%2C+M%2E+R%2E%22">Allen, M. R.</searchLink>
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Nature%22">Nature</searchLink>. 1/27/2005, Vol. 433 Issue 7024, p403-406. 4p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subjects
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Greenhouse+gases%22">Greenhouse gases</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+carbon+dioxide%22">Atmospheric carbon dioxide</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Acclimatization%22">Acclimatization</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climatology%22">Climatology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+dioxide%22">Carbon dioxide</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change, admit climate sensitivities-defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide-substantially greater than 5?K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the‘climateprediction.net’experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2?K to more than 11?K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Nature is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=pbh&AN=15825236
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1038/nature03301
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 4
        StartPage: 403
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Greenhouse gases
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric carbon dioxide
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Acclimatization
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climatology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Carbon dioxide
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Stainforth, D. A.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Aina, T.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Christensen, C.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Collins, M.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Faull, N.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Frame, D. J.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Kettleborough, J. A.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Knight, S.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Martin, A.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Murphy, J. M.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Piani, C.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Sexton, D.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Smith, L. A.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Spicer, R. A.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Thorpe, A. J.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Allen, M. R.
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 27
              M: 01
              Text: 1/27/2005
              Type: published
              Y: 2005
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 00280836
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 433
            – Type: issue
              Value: 7024
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Nature
              Type: main
ResultId 1