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Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election.

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Title: Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election.
Authors: Klein Teeselink, Bouke (AUTHOR), Melios, Georgios (AUTHOR)
Source: Political Behavior. Dec2025, Vol. 47 Issue 4, p1829-1851. 23p.
Subjects: United States presidential election, 2020, Black Lives Matter movement, Elections, Social change, Racial inequality, Political doctrines, Floyd, George, ca. 1973-2020, Public demonstrations
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: Do mass mobilizations drive social change? This paper explores this question by studying how the Black Lives Matter protests following George Floyd's death influenced the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Using rainfall as an instrument for protest participation and complementary difference-in-differences analyses, we show that protest activity significantly increased Democratic vote share in affected coun- ties. Our research makes three key contributions. First, we show causal evidence for the effect of one of the largest protest movements ever recorded on electoral out- comes. Second, we provide evidence of novel temporal dynamics: while protests ini- tially triggered a conservative backlash, they ultimately generated progressive shifts in voting behavior. Third, we identify mechanisms driving these effects, showing that rather than merely mobilizing existing Democratic voters, protests substantively shifted political preferences and beliefs about racial inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Political Behavior is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election.
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  Data: Do mass mobilizations drive social change? This paper explores this question by studying how the Black Lives Matter protests following George Floyd's death influenced the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Using rainfall as an instrument for protest participation and complementary difference-in-differences analyses, we show that protest activity significantly increased Democratic vote share in affected coun- ties. Our research makes three key contributions. First, we show causal evidence for the effect of one of the largest protest movements ever recorded on electoral out- comes. Second, we provide evidence of novel temporal dynamics: while protests ini- tially triggered a conservative backlash, they ultimately generated progressive shifts in voting behavior. Third, we identify mechanisms driving these effects, showing that rather than merely mobilizing existing Democratic voters, protests substantively shifted political preferences and beliefs about racial inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Political Behavior is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1007/s11109-025-10014-w
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Black Lives Matter movement
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      – SubjectFull: Social change
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              M: 12
              Text: Dec2025
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