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The Association Between Vacant Lot Redevelopment and Violent/Firearm Violent Crime: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis From 2007 to 2023.

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Title: The Association Between Vacant Lot Redevelopment and Violent/Firearm Violent Crime: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis From 2007 to 2023.
Authors: Asa, Nicole (AUTHOR), Zewdie, Hiwot Y. (AUTHOR), Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali (AUTHOR), Wagenaar, Bradley H. (AUTHOR), Mooney, Stephen J. (AUTHOR)
Source: American Journal of Public Health. Jan2026, Vol. 116 Issue 1, p95-102. 8p.
Subjects: Crime prevention, Prevention of assault & battery, Prevention of homicide, Theft prevention, Prevention of shootings (Crime), Poisson distribution, Accessible design, Research funding, Clinical trials, Population density, Home ownership, Residential patterns, Firearms, Rape, Descriptive statistics, Police psychology, Public health administration, Metropolitan areas, Research methodology, Geographic information systems, Housing, Confidence intervals, Data analysis software, Neighborhood characteristics, Built environment, Regression analysis
Geographic Terms: Pennsylvania
Abstract: Objectives. To investigate the association between vacant lot redevelopment and violent crime and firearm violent crime. Methods. We used a quasi-experimental study with a difference-in-difference (DID) design. The study population was 254 vacant lots located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The exposure was redevelopment, defined as repurposing the vacant lot into a permanent structure (e.g., housing) between 2007 and 2023. The outcome was violent crime subtypes and firearm violent crime subtypes reported to the police. Our primary analysis used a staggered DID estimator. Results. We found a negative association between redevelopment and aggravated assault (DID = −56.55 crimes per square mile per year; 95% confidence interval [CI] = −97.86, −15.24), firearm aggravated assault (DID = −35.11 crimes per square mile per year; 95% CI = −55.41, −14.82), and overall firearm violent crime (DID = −27.26 crimes per square mile per year; 95% CI = −52.97, −1.54). We did not find significant associations for the other outcomes tested. Conclusions. Our results support the hypothesis that vacant lot redevelopment may prevent or displace violent crime. Public Health Implications. Built environment investments may prevent or displace violence. (Am J Public Health. 2026;116(1):95–102. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2025.308269) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of American Journal of Public Health is the property of American Public Health Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: The Association Between Vacant Lot Redevelopment and Violent/Firearm Violent Crime: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis From 2007 to 2023.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Asa%2C+Nicole%22">Asa, Nicole</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zewdie%2C+Hiwot+Y%2E%22">Zewdie, Hiwot Y.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rowhani-Rahbar%2C+Ali%22">Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wagenaar%2C+Bradley+H%2E%22">Wagenaar, Bradley H.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mooney%2C+Stephen+J%2E%22">Mooney, Stephen J.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22American+Journal+of+Public+Health%22">American Journal of Public Health</searchLink>. Jan2026, Vol. 116 Issue 1, p95-102. 8p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Crime+prevention%22">Crime prevention</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prevention+of+assault+%26+battery%22">Prevention of assault & battery</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prevention+of+homicide%22">Prevention of homicide</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Theft+prevention%22">Theft prevention</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prevention+of+shootings+%28Crime%29%22">Prevention of shootings (Crime)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Poisson+distribution%22">Poisson distribution</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Accessible+design%22">Accessible design</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Research+funding%22">Research funding</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Clinical+trials%22">Clinical trials</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Population+density%22">Population density</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Home+ownership%22">Home ownership</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Residential+patterns%22">Residential patterns</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Firearms%22">Firearms</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rape%22">Rape</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Descriptive+statistics%22">Descriptive statistics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Police+psychology%22">Police psychology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Public+health+administration%22">Public health administration</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Metropolitan+areas%22">Metropolitan areas</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Research+methodology%22">Research methodology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Geographic+information+systems%22">Geographic information systems</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Housing%22">Housing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Confidence+intervals%22">Confidence intervals</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Data+analysis+software%22">Data analysis software</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Neighborhood+characteristics%22">Neighborhood characteristics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Built+environment%22">Built environment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Regression+analysis%22">Regression analysis</searchLink>
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  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pennsylvania%22">Pennsylvania</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Objectives. To investigate the association between vacant lot redevelopment and violent crime and firearm violent crime. Methods. We used a quasi-experimental study with a difference-in-difference (DID) design. The study population was 254 vacant lots located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The exposure was redevelopment, defined as repurposing the vacant lot into a permanent structure (e.g., housing) between 2007 and 2023. The outcome was violent crime subtypes and firearm violent crime subtypes reported to the police. Our primary analysis used a staggered DID estimator. Results. We found a negative association between redevelopment and aggravated assault (DID = −56.55 crimes per square mile per year; 95% confidence interval [CI] = −97.86, −15.24), firearm aggravated assault (DID = −35.11 crimes per square mile per year; 95% CI = −55.41, −14.82), and overall firearm violent crime (DID = −27.26 crimes per square mile per year; 95% CI = −52.97, −1.54). We did not find significant associations for the other outcomes tested. Conclusions. Our results support the hypothesis that vacant lot redevelopment may prevent or displace violent crime. Public Health Implications. Built environment investments may prevent or displace violence. (Am J Public Health. 2026;116(1):95–102. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2025.308269) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of American Journal of Public Health is the property of American Public Health Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.2105/AJPH.2025.308269
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 8
        StartPage: 95
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Crime prevention
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Prevention of assault & battery
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Prevention of homicide
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Theft prevention
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Prevention of shootings (Crime)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Poisson distribution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Accessible design
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Research funding
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Clinical trials
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Population density
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Home ownership
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Residential patterns
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Firearms
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Rape
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Descriptive statistics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Police psychology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Public health administration
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      – SubjectFull: Metropolitan areas
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      – SubjectFull: Research methodology
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      – SubjectFull: Geographic information systems
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      – SubjectFull: Housing
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      – SubjectFull: Confidence intervals
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      – SubjectFull: Data analysis software
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      – SubjectFull: Neighborhood characteristics
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      – SubjectFull: Built environment
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      – SubjectFull: Regression analysis
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      – SubjectFull: Pennsylvania
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: The Association Between Vacant Lot Redevelopment and Violent/Firearm Violent Crime: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis From 2007 to 2023.
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              Text: Jan2026
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