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Investigating the Predictive Validity of the Quantitative Checklist for Autism in Toddlers and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-2 in Children at Elevated Likelihood for Autism.

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Title: Investigating the Predictive Validity of the Quantitative Checklist for Autism in Toddlers and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-2 in Children at Elevated Likelihood for Autism.
Authors: Schaubroeck, Sarah (AUTHOR), Demurie, Ellen (AUTHOR), Begum-Ali, Jannath (AUTHOR), Bölte, Sven (AUTHOR), Boterberg, Sofie (AUTHOR), Buitelaar, Jan (AUTHOR), Charman, Tony (AUTHOR), Falck-Ytter, Terje (AUTHOR), Hunnius, Sabine (AUTHOR), Johnson, Mark (AUTHOR), Jones, Emily (AUTHOR), Pasco, Greg (AUTHOR), Van den Boomen, Carlijn (AUTHOR), Warreyn, Petra (AUTHOR), Roeyers, Herbert (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Autism & Developmental Disorders. Feb2026, Vol. 56 Issue 2, p633-647. 15p.
Subjects: Diagnosis of autism, Siblings, Research funding, Receiver operating characteristic curves, Logistic regression analysis, Descriptive statistics, Age distribution, Classification of mental disorders, Mann Whitney U Test, Longitudinal method, Caregivers, Statistics, Asperger's syndrome, Disease relapse, Early diagnosis, Confidence intervals, Data analysis software, Psychosocial factors, Predictive validity, Sensitivity & specificity (Statistics)
Abstract: This study examined the recurrence rate of autism in siblings at elevated likelihood (EL) and the predictive validity of the Q-CHAT and ADOS-2 at 14 and 24 months (m) for a clinical best estimate (CBE) autism diagnosis at 3 years. 331 EL-siblings (47.9% girls) from the prospective longitudinal EuroSibs study underwent ADOS-2 assessments and caregivers completed the Q-CHAT at 14 m and 24 m. At 3 years CBE was determined using DSM-5 criteria. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were estimated. Autism recurrence rate was 25.7% [95% CI (21.1, 30.6)]. Q-CHAT sensitivity was 31.8% [95% CI (21.4, 43.6)] at 14 m and 30.6% [95% CI (20.7, 41.7)] at 24 m. Specificity was 81.2% [95% CI (75.4, 86.2)] at 14 m and 94.8% [95% CI (91.2, 97.2)] at 24 m. PPV was 35.6% [95% CI (24.2, 48.2)] at 14 m and 66.7% [95% CI (49.8, 81.1)] at 24 m. NPV was 78.5% [95% CI (72.6, 83.7)] and 79.9% [95% CI (74.7, 84.6)] respectively. ADOS-2 demonstrated a of 64.3% [95% CI (45.9, 80.2)] and 69.3% [95% CI (58.4, 79.0)] and a specificity of 71.1% [95% CI (60.3, 80.4)] and 68.7% [95% CI (62.5, 74.5)] at 14 m and 24 m respectively. PPV was 45% [95% CI (30.3, 60.4)] at 14 m and 41.9% [95% CI (33.5, 50.7)] at 24 m. NPV was 84.4% [95% CI (74.2, 91.8)] at 14 m and 87.3% [95% CI (81.9, 91.6)] at 24 m. Q-CHAT and ADOS-2 at 14 m and 24 m can aid in early differentiation between EL-siblings who need further assessment and those who do not, but neither has sufficient sensitivity and PPV for standalone CBE diagnosis prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Autism & Developmental Disorders is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Investigating the Predictive Validity of the Quantitative Checklist for Autism in Toddlers and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-2 in Children at Elevated Likelihood for Autism.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Autism+%26+Developmental+Disorders%22">Journal of Autism & Developmental Disorders</searchLink>. Feb2026, Vol. 56 Issue 2, p633-647. 15p.
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  Data: This study examined the recurrence rate of autism in siblings at elevated likelihood (EL) and the predictive validity of the Q-CHAT and ADOS-2 at 14 and 24 months (m) for a clinical best estimate (CBE) autism diagnosis at 3 years. 331 EL-siblings (47.9% girls) from the prospective longitudinal EuroSibs study underwent ADOS-2 assessments and caregivers completed the Q-CHAT at 14 m and 24 m. At 3 years CBE was determined using DSM-5 criteria. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were estimated. Autism recurrence rate was 25.7% [95% CI (21.1, 30.6)]. Q-CHAT sensitivity was 31.8% [95% CI (21.4, 43.6)] at 14 m and 30.6% [95% CI (20.7, 41.7)] at 24 m. Specificity was 81.2% [95% CI (75.4, 86.2)] at 14 m and 94.8% [95% CI (91.2, 97.2)] at 24 m. PPV was 35.6% [95% CI (24.2, 48.2)] at 14 m and 66.7% [95% CI (49.8, 81.1)] at 24 m. NPV was 78.5% [95% CI (72.6, 83.7)] and 79.9% [95% CI (74.7, 84.6)] respectively. ADOS-2 demonstrated a of 64.3% [95% CI (45.9, 80.2)] and 69.3% [95% CI (58.4, 79.0)] and a specificity of 71.1% [95% CI (60.3, 80.4)] and 68.7% [95% CI (62.5, 74.5)] at 14 m and 24 m respectively. PPV was 45% [95% CI (30.3, 60.4)] at 14 m and 41.9% [95% CI (33.5, 50.7)] at 24 m. NPV was 84.4% [95% CI (74.2, 91.8)] at 14 m and 87.3% [95% CI (81.9, 91.6)] at 24 m. Q-CHAT and ADOS-2 at 14 m and 24 m can aid in early differentiation between EL-siblings who need further assessment and those who do not, but neither has sufficient sensitivity and PPV for standalone CBE diagnosis prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Autism & Developmental Disorders is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1007/s10803-024-06585-y
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