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Predicting externalizing symptom trajectories in U.S. National Guard recruits: The role of adverse childhood experiences.

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Title: Predicting externalizing symptom trajectories in U.S. National Guard recruits: The role of adverse childhood experiences.
Authors: Sloan, Ali F. (AUTHOR), Bron, Tristan (AUTHOR), Marquardt, Craig A. (AUTHOR), Disner, Seth G. (AUTHOR), Noorbaloochi, Siamak (AUTHOR), Polusny, Melissa A. (AUTHOR), Schaefer, Jonathan D. (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Traumatic Stress. Apr2026, Vol. 39 Issue 2, p282-294. 13p.
Subjects: Adverse childhood experiences, Longitudinal method, Drug abuse, Pathological psychology, Recruiting & enlistment (Armed Forces), Alcohol drinking, Aggression (Psychology)
Abstract: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are strongly associated with increased risk of externalizing problems. Despite their prevalence in military populations, limited research links ACEs to longitudinal externalizing problem trajectories during military service transition. This study aimed to identify distinct trajectories of externalizing problems (deviant behavior, alcohol use, and drug use) in U.S. Army National Guard recruits and examine how baseline ACEs predict membership in higher‐risk trajectories during the transition to military service. A longitudinal cohort of 707 Army National Guard recruits was assessed before basic combat training and at four follow‐ups over 18 months. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify distinct trajectories for deviant behavior, alcohol use, and drug use, whereas logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine associations between baseline ACEs and trajectory group membership. For each domain, we identified distinct trajectory patterns beyond stable‐low: decreasing‐increasing and increasing‐decreasing deviant behavior trajectories, stable‐high and increasing alcohol use trajectories, and a variable drug‐users trajectory. Relative to stable‐low class membership, higher ACE scores were associated with increased odds of membership in the decreasing‐increasing, OR = 1.26, 95% CI [1.12, 1.41], and increasing‐decreasing, OR = 1.26, 95% CI [1.15, 1.37], deviant behavior; stable‐high alcohol, OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.03, 1.25]; and drug‐users, OR = 1.19, 95% CI [1.11, 1.28], trajectories. Specific ACEs uniquely predicted higher‐risk trajectories. These findings suggest that ACEs may have longitudinal effects on the unfolding of externalizing symptom trajectories among military recruits, highlighting the need to address preexisting developmental vulnerabilities when examining pathways to psychopathology during significant life transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Traumatic Stress is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Predicting externalizing symptom trajectories in U.S. National Guard recruits: The role of adverse childhood experiences.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sloan%2C+Ali+F%2E%22">Sloan, Ali F.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bron%2C+Tristan%22">Bron, Tristan</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Marquardt%2C+Craig+A%2E%22">Marquardt, Craig A.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Disner%2C+Seth+G%2E%22">Disner, Seth G.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Noorbaloochi%2C+Siamak%22">Noorbaloochi, Siamak</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Polusny%2C+Melissa+A%2E%22">Polusny, Melissa A.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Schaefer%2C+Jonathan+D%2E%22">Schaefer, Jonathan D.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Traumatic+Stress%22">Journal of Traumatic Stress</searchLink>. Apr2026, Vol. 39 Issue 2, p282-294. 13p.
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  Data: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are strongly associated with increased risk of externalizing problems. Despite their prevalence in military populations, limited research links ACEs to longitudinal externalizing problem trajectories during military service transition. This study aimed to identify distinct trajectories of externalizing problems (deviant behavior, alcohol use, and drug use) in U.S. Army National Guard recruits and examine how baseline ACEs predict membership in higher‐risk trajectories during the transition to military service. A longitudinal cohort of 707 Army National Guard recruits was assessed before basic combat training and at four follow‐ups over 18 months. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify distinct trajectories for deviant behavior, alcohol use, and drug use, whereas logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine associations between baseline ACEs and trajectory group membership. For each domain, we identified distinct trajectory patterns beyond stable‐low: decreasing‐increasing and increasing‐decreasing deviant behavior trajectories, stable‐high and increasing alcohol use trajectories, and a variable drug‐users trajectory. Relative to stable‐low class membership, higher ACE scores were associated with increased odds of membership in the decreasing‐increasing, OR = 1.26, 95% CI [1.12, 1.41], and increasing‐decreasing, OR = 1.26, 95% CI [1.15, 1.37], deviant behavior; stable‐high alcohol, OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.03, 1.25]; and drug‐users, OR = 1.19, 95% CI [1.11, 1.28], trajectories. Specific ACEs uniquely predicted higher‐risk trajectories. These findings suggest that ACEs may have longitudinal effects on the unfolding of externalizing symptom trajectories among military recruits, highlighting the need to address preexisting developmental vulnerabilities when examining pathways to psychopathology during significant life transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Traumatic Stress is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1002/jts.70037
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 13
        StartPage: 282
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      – SubjectFull: Adverse childhood experiences
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Longitudinal method
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Drug abuse
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Pathological psychology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Recruiting & enlistment (Armed Forces)
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      – SubjectFull: Alcohol drinking
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Aggression (Psychology)
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Predicting externalizing symptom trajectories in U.S. National Guard recruits: The role of adverse childhood experiences.
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              Text: Apr2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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