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Challenges and Opportunities in Estimating the Mortality Burden Related to Heat Exposure: Maricopa County, Arizona, 2019–2023.

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Title: Challenges and Opportunities in Estimating the Mortality Burden Related to Heat Exposure: Maricopa County, Arizona, 2019–2023.
Authors: Leahy, Heather L., Vaidyanathan, Ambarish, Hondula, David M., Batchelor, Meaghan, Jarrett, Nicole M., Staab, R. Nicholas, Sunenshine, Rebecca, Dale, Ariella P.
Source: American Journal of Public Health. Jun2026, Vol. 116 Issue 6, p810-813. 4p.
Subjects: Mortality risk factors, Statistical models, Air pollution, Risk assessment, Public health surveillance, Seasons, Physiological effects of heat, Climate change, Relative medical risk, Time series analysis, Causes of death, Descriptive statistics, Heat, Environmental exposure, Weather, Temperature, Confidence intervals, Particulate matter, Data analysis software, Regression analysis, Epidemiological research
Geographic Terms: Arizona
Abstract: Objectives. To estimate the mortality burden attributable to daily mean temperatures during the heat season (April through October) in Maricopa County, Arizona. Methods. We examined the effects of heat exposure on 126 854 deaths that occurred in Maricopa County during the 2019 to 2023 heat seasons. Using a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models, we estimated the cumulative relative risk (relative to 77°F) between population-weighted daily mean temperatures and all-cause mortality over a lag period of 3 days. Results. At 99°F (the 95th percentile of the population-weighted daily mean temperature), we observed an 11% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7%, 16%) increase in daily all-cause mortality relative to 77°F. Overall, 3036 (95% empirical CI = 968, 4887) deaths were attributable to heat, which is 57% more deaths than identified through epidemiological heat surveillance. Conclusions. The mortality burden increases with increasing population-weighted daily mean temperatures, indicating that the effects of heat on mortality can be indirect and incompletely captured by routine surveillance. Public Health Implications. Statistical approaches can help estimate the mortality burden associated with heat exposure, complementing countywide surveillance efforts that provide actionable insights into enhancing heat prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of American Journal of Public Health is the property of American Public Health Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Challenges and Opportunities in Estimating the Mortality Burden Related to Heat Exposure: Maricopa County, Arizona, 2019–2023.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Leahy%2C+Heather+L%2E%22">Leahy, Heather L.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Vaidyanathan%2C+Ambarish%22">Vaidyanathan, Ambarish</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hondula%2C+David+M%2E%22">Hondula, David M.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Batchelor%2C+Meaghan%22">Batchelor, Meaghan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jarrett%2C+Nicole+M%2E%22">Jarrett, Nicole M.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Staab%2C+R%2E+Nicholas%22">Staab, R. Nicholas</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sunenshine%2C+Rebecca%22">Sunenshine, Rebecca</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dale%2C+Ariella+P%2E%22">Dale, Ariella P.</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22American+Journal+of+Public+Health%22">American Journal of Public Health</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 116 Issue 6, p810-813. 4p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mortality+risk+factors%22">Mortality risk factors</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+models%22">Statistical models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Air+pollution%22">Air pollution</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Risk+assessment%22">Risk assessment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Public+health+surveillance%22">Public health surveillance</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Seasons%22">Seasons</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Physiological+effects+of+heat%22">Physiological effects of heat</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Relative+medical+risk%22">Relative medical risk</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Time+series+analysis%22">Time series analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Causes+of+death%22">Causes of death</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Descriptive+statistics%22">Descriptive statistics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Heat%22">Heat</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Environmental+exposure%22">Environmental exposure</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather%22">Weather</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Temperature%22">Temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Confidence+intervals%22">Confidence intervals</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Particulate+matter%22">Particulate matter</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Data+analysis+software%22">Data analysis software</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Regression+analysis%22">Regression analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Epidemiological+research%22">Epidemiological research</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Arizona%22">Arizona</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Objectives. To estimate the mortality burden attributable to daily mean temperatures during the heat season (April through October) in Maricopa County, Arizona. Methods. We examined the effects of heat exposure on 126 854 deaths that occurred in Maricopa County during the 2019 to 2023 heat seasons. Using a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models, we estimated the cumulative relative risk (relative to 77°F) between population-weighted daily mean temperatures and all-cause mortality over a lag period of 3 days. Results. At 99°F (the 95th percentile of the population-weighted daily mean temperature), we observed an 11% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7%, 16%) increase in daily all-cause mortality relative to 77°F. Overall, 3036 (95% empirical CI = 968, 4887) deaths were attributable to heat, which is 57% more deaths than identified through epidemiological heat surveillance. Conclusions. The mortality burden increases with increasing population-weighted daily mean temperatures, indicating that the effects of heat on mortality can be indirect and incompletely captured by routine surveillance. Public Health Implications. Statistical approaches can help estimate the mortality burden associated with heat exposure, complementing countywide surveillance efforts that provide actionable insights into enhancing heat prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of American Journal of Public Health is the property of American Public Health Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.2105/AJPH.2026.308443
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 4
        StartPage: 810
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Mortality risk factors
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Statistical models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Air pollution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Risk assessment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Public health surveillance
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Seasons
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Physiological effects of heat
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Relative medical risk
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Time series analysis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Causes of death
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Descriptive statistics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Heat
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Environmental exposure
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Weather
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Confidence intervals
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Particulate matter
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Data analysis software
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Regression analysis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Epidemiological research
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Arizona
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Challenges and Opportunities in Estimating the Mortality Burden Related to Heat Exposure: Maricopa County, Arizona, 2019–2023.
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              Text: Jun2026
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              Y: 2026
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