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Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults.

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Title: Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults.
Authors: Gong, Jianhua (AUTHOR), Fan, Wenyuan (AUTHOR), McGuire, Jeffrey J. (AUTHOR), Behn, Mark D. (AUTHOR), Warren, Jessica M. (AUTHOR), Roland, Emily (AUTHOR), Boettcher, Margaret S. (AUTHOR), Collins, John A. (AUTHOR), Liu, Yajing (AUTHOR), German, Christopher R. (AUTHOR)
Source: Science. 5/14/2026, Vol. 392 Issue 6799, p718-723. 6p.
Subjects: Geologic faults, Ruptures (Structural failure), Surface fault ruptures, Stress concentration, Microseisms, Strike-slip faults (Geology)
Geographic Terms: Pacific Ocean
Abstract: Earthquakes of magnitude (M) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by "barriers" that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested ~15 M6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes. Editor's summary: The Gofar transform fault cuts across the Pacific Ocean floor with a regular slip schedule, hosting a moment magnitude ~6 earthquake about every 5 years. Two deep-ocean experiments have recorded seismic activity across its earthquake cycles. Gong et al. analyzed ocean bottom seismometer data over the 2020 cycle and compared them with data from 2008. The two events occurred on segments separated by 100 kilometers. In each case, the zone adjacent to the mainshock hosted a days-long foreshock sequence and then served as a barrier to the main rupture. These observations suggest that the barrier zones help to regulate faulting through steady stress accumulation. —Angela Hessler [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Science is the property of American Association for the Advancement of Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gong%2C+Jianhua%22">Gong, Jianhua</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fan%2C+Wenyuan%22">Fan, Wenyuan</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22McGuire%2C+Jeffrey+J%2E%22">McGuire, Jeffrey J.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Behn%2C+Mark+D%2E%22">Behn, Mark D.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Warren%2C+Jessica+M%2E%22">Warren, Jessica M.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Roland%2C+Emily%22">Roland, Emily</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Boettcher%2C+Margaret+S%2E%22">Boettcher, Margaret S.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Collins%2C+John+A%2E%22">Collins, John A.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Liu%2C+Yajing%22">Liu, Yajing</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22German%2C+Christopher+R%2E%22">German, Christopher R.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Geologic+faults%22">Geologic faults</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ruptures+%28Structural+failure%29%22">Ruptures (Structural failure)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Surface+fault+ruptures%22">Surface fault ruptures</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Stress+concentration%22">Stress concentration</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Microseisms%22">Microseisms</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Strike-slip+faults+%28Geology%29%22">Strike-slip faults (Geology)</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Ocean%22">Pacific Ocean</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Earthquakes of magnitude (M) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by "barriers" that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested ~15 M6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes. Editor's summary: The Gofar transform fault cuts across the Pacific Ocean floor with a regular slip schedule, hosting a moment magnitude ~6 earthquake about every 5 years. Two deep-ocean experiments have recorded seismic activity across its earthquake cycles. Gong et al. analyzed ocean bottom seismometer data over the 2020 cycle and compared them with data from 2008. The two events occurred on segments separated by 100 kilometers. In each case, the zone adjacent to the mainshock hosted a days-long foreshock sequence and then served as a barrier to the main rupture. These observations suggest that the barrier zones help to regulate faulting through steady stress accumulation. —Angela Hessler [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Science is the property of American Association for the Advancement of Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1126/science.ady6190
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Geologic faults
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ruptures (Structural failure)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Surface fault ruptures
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      – SubjectFull: Stress concentration
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      – SubjectFull: Microseisms
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      – SubjectFull: Strike-slip faults (Geology)
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      – SubjectFull: Pacific Ocean
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      – TitleFull: Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults.
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              Text: 5/14/2026
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