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How Probability Theory Got Its Start.

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Title: How Probability Theory Got Its Start.
Authors: MURTAGH, JACK (AUTHOR)
Source: Scientific American. Jul/Aug2026, Vol. 335 Issue 1, p121-123. 3p. 1 Diagram.
Subjects: Probability theory, Risk assessment, Conditional expectations, Mathematicians
Abstract: The article focuses on the historical development of modern probability theory through the "problem of points," a puzzle about fairly dividing stakes in an interrupted game of chance. Early attempts by Luca Pacioli and Niccolò Tartaglia to solve the problem were flawed, as they did not account for future possibilities in the game. In the 17th century, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat corresponded to provide the first rigorous solutions by calculating expected values based on all possible future outcomes, laying the foundation for probability theory. Their methods underpin contemporary risk assessment practices used in fields such as insurance, finance, and gambling by quantifying uncertain outcomes through weighted averages of possible scenarios. [Extracted from the article]
Copyright of Scientific American is the property of Scientific American and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: How Probability Theory Got Its Start.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Scientific+American%22">Scientific American</searchLink>. Jul/Aug2026, Vol. 335 Issue 1, p121-123. 3p. 1 Diagram.
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  Data: The article focuses on the historical development of modern probability theory through the "problem of points," a puzzle about fairly dividing stakes in an interrupted game of chance. Early attempts by Luca Pacioli and Niccolò Tartaglia to solve the problem were flawed, as they did not account for future possibilities in the game. In the 17th century, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat corresponded to provide the first rigorous solutions by calculating expected values based on all possible future outcomes, laying the foundation for probability theory. Their methods underpin contemporary risk assessment practices used in fields such as insurance, finance, and gambling by quantifying uncertain outcomes through weighted averages of possible scenarios. [Extracted from the article]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Scientific American is the property of Scientific American and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Probability theory
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      – SubjectFull: Risk assessment
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      – SubjectFull: Conditional expectations
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              Text: Jul/Aug2026
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