View in EDS HTML Full Text PDF Full Text

Not of Primary Concern: Assessing Ideological Voting Over Time in U.S. Primaries, 2008–2024.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Not of Primary Concern: Assessing Ideological Voting Over Time in U.S. Primaries, 2008–2024.
Authors: Hopkins, Daniel J. (AUTHOR), Sigler, Gall (AUTHOR)
Source: Political Behavior. Jun2026, Vol. 48 Issue 2, p695-719. 25p.
Subjects: Primaries, Longitudinal method, Voting research, Factionalism (Politics), Partisanship
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: America's major political parties have been riven by ideological factions which contest for power partly through partisan primaries. Ideological factions can only be grounded in voting behavior to the extent that primary voters are consistently ideological across primaries. Yet, prior research has relied overwhelmingly on cross-sectional analyses. This paper thus provides new, over-time evidence on the extent of ideological voting in partisan presidential and Senate primaries. It first uses population-based panel data which measures the same respondents' presidential primary preferences in 2008, 2016, and 2020 to investigate ideology's role in stabilizing primary vote choices. Across pairs of primaries, over one third of respondents prefer candidates representing different ideological factions within the same party. To extend these analyses to Senate races and address concerns about sampling biases, it also draws on precinct-level returns in five states' primaries (2008–2024). Evidence from these varied sources points to one conclusion: ideological considerations influence primary voting, but their modest association with vote choice and limited over-time stability leaves substantial room for other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Political Behavior is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
Full text is not displayed to guests.
FullText Links:
  – Type: pdflink
Text:
  Availability: 1
Header DbId: pbh
DbLabel: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
An: 194697475
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Not of Primary Concern: Assessing Ideological Voting Over Time in U.S. Primaries, 2008–2024.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hopkins%2C+Daniel+J%2E%22">Hopkins, Daniel J.</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sigler%2C+Gall%22">Sigler, Gall</searchLink> (AUTHOR)
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Political+Behavior%22">Political Behavior</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 48 Issue 2, p695-719. 25p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subjects
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Primaries%22">Primaries</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Longitudinal+method%22">Longitudinal method</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Voting+research%22">Voting research</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Factionalism+%28Politics%29%22">Factionalism (Politics)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Partisanship%22">Partisanship</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: America's major political parties have been riven by ideological factions which contest for power partly through partisan primaries. Ideological factions can only be grounded in voting behavior to the extent that primary voters are consistently ideological across primaries. Yet, prior research has relied overwhelmingly on cross-sectional analyses. This paper thus provides new, over-time evidence on the extent of ideological voting in partisan presidential and Senate primaries. It first uses population-based panel data which measures the same respondents' presidential primary preferences in 2008, 2016, and 2020 to investigate ideology's role in stabilizing primary vote choices. Across pairs of primaries, over one third of respondents prefer candidates representing different ideological factions within the same party. To extend these analyses to Senate races and address concerns about sampling biases, it also draws on precinct-level returns in five states' primaries (2008–2024). Evidence from these varied sources points to one conclusion: ideological considerations influence primary voting, but their modest association with vote choice and limited over-time stability leaves substantial room for other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Political Behavior is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=pbh&AN=194697475
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s11109-025-10046-2
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 25
        StartPage: 695
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Primaries
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Longitudinal method
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Voting research
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Factionalism (Politics)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Partisanship
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Not of Primary Concern: Assessing Ideological Voting Over Time in U.S. Primaries, 2008–2024.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Hopkins, Daniel J.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Sigler, Gall
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 06
              Text: Jun2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 01909320
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 48
            – Type: issue
              Value: 2
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Political Behavior
              Type: main
ResultId 1