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Does Overconfidence Really Confer Adaptive Benefits to Children's Learning?

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Title: Does Overconfidence Really Confer Adaptive Benefits to Children's Learning?
Authors: Hu, Mengqi (AUTHOR), Zhao, Wenbo (AUTHOR), Cao, Meiyuan (AUTHOR), Shanks, David R. (AUTHOR), Hu, Xiao (AUTHOR), Luo, Liang (AUTHOR), Yang, Chunliang (AUTHOR)
Source: Psychological Science (0956-7976). Jul2026, Vol. 37 Issue 7, p477-492. 16p.
Subjects: Learning, Self-confidence, Child development, Causality (Physics), Computer simulation, Memory testing, Educational psychology
Abstract: Does overconfidence really confer adaptive benefits to children's learning? Through a tripartite investigation involving a preregistered replication (Study 1; N = 30, children aged 6–8 years), computational simulation (Study 2), and an experimental intervention (Study 3; N = 64, children aged 6–8 years), we first replicated previous findings that highly overconfident (HO) children exhibited less negative performance change across a memory task than their low-overconfidence (LO) counterparts. However, this pattern was driven by participant-selection bias and regression-to-the-mean effects rather than by adaptive benefits of childhood overconfidence. When experimentally manipulating children's overconfidence levels to eliminate these methodological drawbacks, the difference in performance changes between HO and LO children disappeared. These findings challenge an influential hypothesis about the adaptive nature of childhood overconfidence, underscore the risks of median-split designs with difference scores, highlight the necessity of causal experimental approaches in developmental research, and raise concerns about educational practices promoting positive illusions in children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Psychological Science (0956-7976) is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Does Overconfidence Really Confer Adaptive Benefits to Children's Learning?
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Psychological+Science+%280956-7976%29%22">Psychological Science (0956-7976)</searchLink>. Jul2026, Vol. 37 Issue 7, p477-492. 16p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Learning%22">Learning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Self-confidence%22">Self-confidence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Child+development%22">Child development</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Causality+%28Physics%29%22">Causality (Physics)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Computer+simulation%22">Computer simulation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Memory+testing%22">Memory testing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+psychology%22">Educational psychology</searchLink>
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  Data: Does overconfidence really confer adaptive benefits to children's learning? Through a tripartite investigation involving a preregistered replication (Study 1; N = 30, children aged 6–8 years), computational simulation (Study 2), and an experimental intervention (Study 3; N = 64, children aged 6–8 years), we first replicated previous findings that highly overconfident (HO) children exhibited less negative performance change across a memory task than their low-overconfidence (LO) counterparts. However, this pattern was driven by participant-selection bias and regression-to-the-mean effects rather than by adaptive benefits of childhood overconfidence. When experimentally manipulating children's overconfidence levels to eliminate these methodological drawbacks, the difference in performance changes between HO and LO children disappeared. These findings challenge an influential hypothesis about the adaptive nature of childhood overconfidence, underscore the risks of median-split designs with difference scores, highlight the necessity of causal experimental approaches in developmental research, and raise concerns about educational practices promoting positive illusions in children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Psychological Science (0956-7976) is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=pbh&AN=195176447
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        Value: 10.1177/09567976261455283
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        Text: English
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        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Self-confidence
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      – SubjectFull: Child development
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      – SubjectFull: Causality (Physics)
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      – SubjectFull: Educational psychology
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              Text: Jul2026
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              Y: 2026
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