The Potential for Respiratory Droplet--Transmissible A/H5N1 Influenza Virus to Evolve in a Mammalian Host.

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Bibliographic Details
Title:	The Potential for Respiratory Droplet--Transmissible A/H5N1 Influenza Virus to Evolve in a Mammalian Host.
Authors:	Russell, Colin A., Fonville, Judith M., Brown, André E. X., Burke, David F., Smith, David L., James, Sarah L., Herfst, Sander, van Boheemen, Sander, Linster, Martin, Schrauwen, Eefje J., Katzelnick, Leah, Mosterín, Ana, Kuiken, Thijs, Maher, Eileen, Neumann, Gabriele, Osterhaus, Albert D. M. E., Kawaoka, Yoshihiro, Fouchier, Ron A. M., Smith, Derek J.
Source:	Science (pre-March 2025). 6/22/2012, Vol. 336 Issue 6088, p1541-1547. 7p.
Subjects:	H5N1 Influenza, Airborne infection, Host-virus relationships, Viral evolution, Microbiology, Pandemics, Infectious disease transmission, Disease risk factors
Abstract:	Avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses pose a pandemic threat. As few as five amino acid substitutions, or four with reassortment, might be sufficient for mammal-to-mammal transmission through respiratory droplets. From surveillance data, we found that two of these substitutions are common in A/H5N1 viruses, and thus, some viruses might require only three additional substitutions to become transmissible via respiratory droplets between mammals. We used a mathematical model of within-host virus evolution to study factors that could increase and decrease the probability of the remaining substitutions evolving after the virus has infected a mammalian host. These factors, combined with the presence of some of these substitutions in circulating strains, make a virus evolving in nature a potentially serious threat. These results highlight critical areas in which more data are needed for assessing, and potentially averting, this threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database:	Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection

Description
Abstract:	Avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses pose a pandemic threat. As few as five amino acid substitutions, or four with reassortment, might be sufficient for mammal-to-mammal transmission through respiratory droplets. From surveillance data, we found that two of these substitutions are common in A/H5N1 viruses, and thus, some viruses might require only three additional substitutions to become transmissible via respiratory droplets between mammals. We used a mathematical model of within-host virus evolution to study factors that could increase and decrease the probability of the remaining substitutions evolving after the virus has infected a mammalian host. These factors, combined with the presence of some of these substitutions in circulating strains, make a virus evolving in nature a potentially serious threat. These results highlight critical areas in which more data are needed for assessing, and potentially averting, this threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:	00368075
DOI:	10.1126/science.1222526