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Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

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Title: Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.
Authors: Burrows, Michael T., Schoeman, David S., Richardson, Anthony J., Molinos, Jorge García, Hoffmann, Ary, Buckley, Lauren B., Moore, Pippa J., Brown, Christopher J., Bruno, John F., Duarte, Carlos M., Halpern, Benjamin S., Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove, Kappel, Carrie V., Kiessling, Wolfgang, O'Connor, Mary I., Pandolfi, John M., Parmesan, Camille, Sydeman, William J., Ferrier, Simon, Williams, Kristen J.
Source: Nature. 3/27/2014, Vol. 507 Issue 7493, p492-495. 4p.
Subjects: Climate change, Species diversity, Species distribution, Coasts, Fossil fuels
Abstract: The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Nature is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Burrows%2C+Michael+T%2E%22">Burrows, Michael T.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Schoeman%2C+David+S%2E%22">Schoeman, David S.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Richardson%2C+Anthony+J%2E%22">Richardson, Anthony J.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Molinos%2C+Jorge+García%22">Molinos, Jorge García</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hoffmann%2C+Ary%22">Hoffmann, Ary</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Buckley%2C+Lauren+B%2E%22">Buckley, Lauren B.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Moore%2C+Pippa+J%2E%22">Moore, Pippa J.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Brown%2C+Christopher+J%2E%22">Brown, Christopher J.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bruno%2C+John+F%2E%22">Bruno, John F.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Duarte%2C+Carlos+M%2E%22">Duarte, Carlos M.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Halpern%2C+Benjamin+S%2E%22">Halpern, Benjamin S.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hoegh-Guldberg%2C+Ove%22">Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kappel%2C+Carrie+V%2E%22">Kappel, Carrie V.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kiessling%2C+Wolfgang%22">Kiessling, Wolfgang</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22O'Connor%2C+Mary+I%2E%22">O'Connor, Mary I.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Pandolfi%2C+John+M%2E%22">Pandolfi, John M.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Parmesan%2C+Camille%22">Parmesan, Camille</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sydeman%2C+William+J%2E%22">Sydeman, William J.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ferrier%2C+Simon%22">Ferrier, Simon</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Williams%2C+Kristen+J%2E%22">Williams, Kristen J.</searchLink>
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  Data: The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Nature is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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