Detección de puntos de giro a partir de un método paramétrico: aplicación de un Markov Switching Model para el ciclo económico de Santa Fe.
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| Title: | Detección de puntos de giro a partir de un método paramétrico: aplicación de un Markov Switching Model para el ciclo económico de Santa Fe. (Spanish). |
|---|---|
| Alternate Title: | Detection of cycling points using a parametric method: application of a Markov switching model for the Santa Fe economic cycle. (English) |
| Authors: | Leiva, Francisco, Cohan, Pedro Pablo, Rodriguez, Agustin |
| Source: | Economica (00130419). 2025, Vol. 71, Preceding p1-29. 30p. |
| Subjects: | RECESSIONS, BUSINESS cycles, FORECASTING, HIDDEN Markov models, ECONOMIC expansion, ECONOMIC indicators |
| Geographic Terms: | ARGENTINA, SANTA Fe (Argentina) |
| Abstract (English): | This paper applies a Markov switching model to identify state changes in the coincident composite index for Santa Fe, Argentina, providing a complementary and statistically more robust tool compared to traditional empirical approaches. The results show that the two-regime model aligns closely with previously identified periods of classical recessions and expansions, supporting the robustness of the aggregation methodology used to construct the index and confirming the chronology established by empirical methods. Finally, the predictive potential of filtered probabilities is examined for anticipating economic turning points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Abstract (Spanish): | El presente trabajo aplica un modelo de regímenes de Markov para identificar los cambios de estado en el índice compuesto coincidente de la provincia de Santa Fe, Argentina, constituyendo una herramienta complementaria y estadísticamente más robusta frente a los métodos empíricos tradicionales. Los resultados muestran que el modelo de dos regímenes presenta una alta correspondencia con las recesiones y expansiones clásicas previamente identificadas, lo que valida la solidez de la metodología de agregación utilizada para calcular dicho índice, al tiempo que confirma la cronología previamente establecida por métodos empíricos. Por último, se analiza el potencial predictivo de las probabilidades filtradas para anticipar los giros económicos. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Referencia Latina |
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: zah DbLabel: Referencia Latina An: 190703868 RelevancyScore: 1064 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 1063.69470214844 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Detección de puntos de giro a partir de un método paramétrico: aplicación de un Markov Switching Model para el ciclo económico de Santa Fe. <i>(Spanish). </i> – Name: TitleAlt Label: Alternate Title Group: TiAlt Data: Detection of cycling points using a parametric method: application of a Markov switching model for the Santa Fe economic cycle.<i> (English)</i> – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Leiva%2C+Francisco%22">Leiva, Francisco</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cohan%2C+Pedro+Pablo%22">Cohan, Pedro Pablo</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rodriguez%2C+Agustin%22">Rodriguez, Agustin</searchLink> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Economica+%2800130419%29%22">Economica (00130419)</searchLink>. 2025, Vol. 71, Preceding p1-29. 30p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22RECESSIONS%22">RECESSIONS</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22BUSINESS+cycles%22">BUSINESS cycles</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22FORECASTING%22">FORECASTING</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HIDDEN+Markov+models%22">HIDDEN Markov models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22ECONOMIC+expansion%22">ECONOMIC expansion</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22ECONOMIC+indicators%22">ECONOMIC indicators</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22ARGENTINA%22">ARGENTINA</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22SANTA+Fe+%28Argentina%29%22">SANTA Fe (Argentina)</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract (English) Group: Ab Data: This paper applies a Markov switching model to identify state changes in the coincident composite index for Santa Fe, Argentina, providing a complementary and statistically more robust tool compared to traditional empirical approaches. The results show that the two-regime model aligns closely with previously identified periods of classical recessions and expansions, supporting the robustness of the aggregation methodology used to construct the index and confirming the chronology established by empirical methods. Finally, the predictive potential of filtered probabilities is examined for anticipating economic turning points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract (Spanish) Group: Ab Data: El presente trabajo aplica un modelo de regímenes de Markov para identificar los cambios de estado en el índice compuesto coincidente de la provincia de Santa Fe, Argentina, constituyendo una herramienta complementaria y estadísticamente más robusta frente a los métodos empíricos tradicionales. Los resultados muestran que el modelo de dos regímenes presenta una alta correspondencia con las recesiones y expansiones clásicas previamente identificadas, lo que valida la solidez de la metodología de agregación utilizada para calcular dicho índice, al tiempo que confirma la cronología previamente establecida por métodos empíricos. Por último, se analiza el potencial predictivo de las probabilidades filtradas para anticipar los giros económicos. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=zah&AN=190703868 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.24215/18521649e042 Languages: – Code: spa Text: Spanish PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 30 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: RECESSIONS Type: general – SubjectFull: BUSINESS cycles Type: general – SubjectFull: FORECASTING Type: general – SubjectFull: HIDDEN Markov models Type: general – SubjectFull: ECONOMIC expansion Type: general – SubjectFull: ECONOMIC indicators Type: general – SubjectFull: ARGENTINA Type: general – SubjectFull: SANTA Fe (Argentina) Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Detección de puntos de giro a partir de un método paramétrico: aplicación de un Markov Switching Model para el ciclo económico de Santa Fe. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Leiva, Francisco – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Cohan, Pedro Pablo – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Rodriguez, Agustin IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Text: 2025 Type: published Y: 2025 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00130419 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 71 Titles: – TitleFull: Economica (00130419) Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
