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The effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission trends in the Southeast Asian countries.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: The effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission trends in the Southeast Asian countries.
Authors: Chen, Minpeng1 (AUTHOR) minpeng.chen@ruc.edu.cn, Li, Siqi1 (AUTHOR), Su, Xun1 (AUTHOR), Feng, Yichen1 (AUTHOR), Peng, Yichun2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Resources, Conservation & Recycling. Jun2025, Vol. 220, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subject Terms: *Greenhouse gases, *Agricultural pollution, Statistical significance, Belt & Road Initiative, Farm produce exports & imports
Geographic Terms: Southeast Asia
Abstract: Agriculture in Southeast Asia (SEA) plays a crucial role in global food security, while also contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents opportunities that may influence agricultural greenhouse gas (Ag-GHG) emissions in the region. Hence, this study investigated the trends and drivers of Ag-GHG emissions in SEA since 1961 and BRI effect on them, using Mann-Kendall tests, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition, and panel data models. While regional Ag-GHG emissions plateaued, the national trajectories fell into three categories: past peaks, plateaus, and growing; and countries in the plateau category account for over 90 % of the regional emissions. Since 1961, the key drivers of Ag-GHG emissions have included population growth (+210 %), rising agricultural labor productivity (+175 %), and a moderate increase in emission intensity (+17 %). However, these trends have been offset by gains in agricultural land productivity (-67 %) and the effects of urbanization (-40 %). Panel data models indicate that the BRI has had a statistically significant negative impact on Ag-GHG emissions in SEA, reducing emissions by 6–8 %. This decline was partially mediated by an increase in agricultural exports. The study provides valuable insights of BRI impact and underlying drivers on Ag-GHG emissions in SEA. These findings can guide policy decisions for integration into BRI to mitigate agricultural emissions in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: GreenFILE
Description
Abstract:Agriculture in Southeast Asia (SEA) plays a crucial role in global food security, while also contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents opportunities that may influence agricultural greenhouse gas (Ag-GHG) emissions in the region. Hence, this study investigated the trends and drivers of Ag-GHG emissions in SEA since 1961 and BRI effect on them, using Mann-Kendall tests, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition, and panel data models. While regional Ag-GHG emissions plateaued, the national trajectories fell into three categories: past peaks, plateaus, and growing; and countries in the plateau category account for over 90 % of the regional emissions. Since 1961, the key drivers of Ag-GHG emissions have included population growth (+210 %), rising agricultural labor productivity (+175 %), and a moderate increase in emission intensity (+17 %). However, these trends have been offset by gains in agricultural land productivity (-67 %) and the effects of urbanization (-40 %). Panel data models indicate that the BRI has had a statistically significant negative impact on Ag-GHG emissions in SEA, reducing emissions by 6–8 %. This decline was partially mediated by an increase in agricultural exports. The study provides valuable insights of BRI impact and underlying drivers on Ag-GHG emissions in SEA. These findings can guide policy decisions for integration into BRI to mitigate agricultural emissions in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:09213449
DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108343