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Ecological Niche Modeling Reveals Historical Population Dynamics and Future Climate Response of the Carnivorous Plant Nepenthes mirabilis in Southeast Asia.

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Title: Ecological Niche Modeling Reveals Historical Population Dynamics and Future Climate Response of the Carnivorous Plant Nepenthes mirabilis in Southeast Asia.
Authors: Huang, Zhilong1,2 (AUTHOR), Yu, Wenya1 (AUTHOR), Lv, Wenjun1 (AUTHOR), Liang, Chuxin1 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Rongjing1 (AUTHOR), Along, Archie3 (AUTHOR), Kong, Hanghui4 (AUTHOR) konghh@scbg.ac.cn, Gong, Wei1 (AUTHOR) wgong@scau.edu.cn
Source: Ecology & Evolution (20457758). Dec2025, Vol. 15 Issue 12, p1-17. 17p.
Subject Terms: *Ecological niche, *Climate change, *Population dynamics, *Conservation projects (Natural resources), *Carnivorous plants, *Habitats, Endemic species, Southeast Asian history
Geographic Terms: Southeast Asia, New Guinea (Island)
Abstract: Climate change and environmental factors are reshaping natural habitats, threatening species diversity and genetic resources. Nepenthes mirabilis , a dioecious carnivorous plant and vulnerable species, is mainly distributed in Southeast Asia, one of the key biodiversity hotspots and conservation priority areas. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of N. mirabilis across past, present, and future climate scenarios, based on 513 occurrence records and five key environmental variables of Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Annual Precipitation, April Precipitation, and December Precipitation. The model demonstrated excellent predictive performance with high AUC and TSS values. Annual Precipitation was identified to be the most important climate factor influencing the geographical distribution of N. mirabilis. Wallacea and New Guinea are suggested as likely centers of the geographical origin of N. mirabilis , from where it expanded to the Sundaic region through the land bridge during glacial periods and subsequently colonized the Philippines and Indochina. Under future scenarios, the most suitable climate scenario for the development of N. mirabilis is the Sustainable Development Pathway. As temperature rises, suitable habitats are projected to shift toward higher latitudes, with low‐latitude populations facing increasing risks. By integrating Ecological Niche Modeling with evolutionary inference, the study interprets how historical and future climate oscillations shape geographical distributions in Southeast Asia and provides in situ and ex situ conservation strategies for N. mirabilis. These findings also contribute to a broad understanding of species evolution and population dynamics across subtropical and tropical biodiversity hotspots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: GreenFILE
Description
Abstract:Climate change and environmental factors are reshaping natural habitats, threatening species diversity and genetic resources. Nepenthes mirabilis , a dioecious carnivorous plant and vulnerable species, is mainly distributed in Southeast Asia, one of the key biodiversity hotspots and conservation priority areas. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of N. mirabilis across past, present, and future climate scenarios, based on 513 occurrence records and five key environmental variables of Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Annual Precipitation, April Precipitation, and December Precipitation. The model demonstrated excellent predictive performance with high AUC and TSS values. Annual Precipitation was identified to be the most important climate factor influencing the geographical distribution of N. mirabilis. Wallacea and New Guinea are suggested as likely centers of the geographical origin of N. mirabilis , from where it expanded to the Sundaic region through the land bridge during glacial periods and subsequently colonized the Philippines and Indochina. Under future scenarios, the most suitable climate scenario for the development of N. mirabilis is the Sustainable Development Pathway. As temperature rises, suitable habitats are projected to shift toward higher latitudes, with low‐latitude populations facing increasing risks. By integrating Ecological Niche Modeling with evolutionary inference, the study interprets how historical and future climate oscillations shape geographical distributions in Southeast Asia and provides in situ and ex situ conservation strategies for N. mirabilis. These findings also contribute to a broad understanding of species evolution and population dynamics across subtropical and tropical biodiversity hotspots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:20457758
DOI:10.1002/ece3.72707